Hello friends, and welcome to the 2026 season! I hope the offseason has been kind to you - I know how hard shit can be in 2026, especially without baseball as the ultimate distraction. But fret not, for we now have half-a-year of America's pastime ahead of us, and surely it will last forever...right? Six months is basically an eternity...right? With a new season comes exciting new analysis: Who has improved bat speed?! Who has decreased bat speed? Who's changed their batting stance? Is the swing/tilt improved? Is Fernando Tatis Jr. getting under the ball again? God I hope so. Oh, that guy gained 20 lbs. of muscle and is in the best shape of his life? Wait, did Zac Veen get large right around the time all the pets in town went missing? This guy added a new pitch? That dude has increased velocity? The beginnings of a new season are very, very good for the neurotic brain, and that happens to be most fantasy baseball players. That's not to say I haven't been extremely busy this offseason, though. By my estimation, I've compiled some of the more detailed and palatable Dynasty Prospect lists and data analyses over on my Patreon, most of which are now freely available to the public. I'll be copying and editing them here over the next couple of days if you want to check those out. But feel free to go subscribe free or paid, and nab an invite to the Gerbil Sports discord. We'll be talking about baseball all day, everyday, alongside posting in-progress Waiver Wire analyses on the daily. If you're looking for those waiver-wire steals before the weekly Sunday post, I've got you covered. The Patreon has become one of the coolest things I've ever created in my life, something that is both entirely my own and also shared with an awesome community of ball-lovers. We've reached 167 total members, with 64 of them helping support the costs of being a sentient being that only studies baseball all day, every day Now that shit is cool. In an age of AI slop infecting even the most mainstream and well-respected of fantasy baseball outlets, we're going to keep cooking up content with a human touch. This cheat sheet is designed to be quick and to the point, but some of the pitchers will contain excerpts from other articles from the Patreon. If you're looking for more specific data analysis, feel free to check those out - they could wind up being helpful!

All images of Spring Training metrics comes from Prospectsavant.com. Go donate! The work he's doing over there is invaluable to the fantasy community. I also reference TJ Stats several times, so go check that out too. In combination, those two sources make analytical scouting accessible to anyone, anywhere, at any time! Ben Brown, SP, (Budget) C

Everybody run...Ben Brown's got a sinker. This is actually pretty awesome. 2025 Ben Brown looked like this:

4-seam, 55.6% Curve, 39.9% Changeup, 4.5% Brown was basically a 2-pitch pitcher, and boy did I hate that for him. It was my #1 critique - if Ben Brown could add even one more pitch, he'd be a lot less predictable, obviously. His 4-seam coming in at 96 mph on 78th percentile extension already had Brown looking like a guy with the juice to dominate the zone and reminded me quite a bit of Tyler Glasnow, but hitters were ultimately able to sit on the pitch - 56% usage was just too high when it was easily distinguishable from the curveball (.217xBA, awesome pitch). But now you're telling me Ben Brown looks like this, and the pitch he developed is seemingly a plus offering? : Curve, 34.6% 4-seam, 34.6% SINKER, 26.9% Changeup, 3.8% Welp, there it is, the evolution of Ben Brown. I guess this explains his .205 BA against this Spring, and absolutely stunning spring training statcast. Now that Brown has three viable pitches and the rare changeup, his entire outlook changes - especially with that sinker being a 106 psStuff+ pitch coming in hot at 97.3 mph. Combine that with the 37% curveball use we're seeing and Brown is suddenly much less predictabe and a lot more dangerous. 100 mph perceived velocity on two different pitches will get by hitters in a hurry if they start sitting on a primary knuckle-curve. I'm going to try to buy in all dynasty leagues. In redraft, this is an easy late-round pick.

Brandon Williamson, SP, (Pending Super Budget) C-

Pending confirmation that Brandon Williamson will officially be entering the rotation, this is going to be a really savvy waiver add or late draft pick.

With news of the Reds opting for a six-man rotation, Brandon Williamson has instantly become relevant in deeper leagues. Although his metrics in 2023 and 2024 were nothing to write home about, Williamson was a fine waiver add in deep redraft leagues and never posted a WHIP above 1.30 in either campaign.

Spring training Brandon Williamson has looked like the best iteration thus far, with a 94.5 mph sinker and 4-seam up in velocity from 92.5 mph in 2024. To top it off, we're seeing him throw six pitches with distinct shapes that take advantage of the full strike zone, as opposed to the four pitches we saw in 2024. His sweeper is shaping up to be a solid swing-and-miss offering and TJ Stats currently has it graded above 100, while Prospectsavant has the cutter graded above 100 - not too shabby, receiving two 100+ pitch grades from reputable sources!

Between the velocity increase and improved pitch mix, Brandon Williamson is one of the more exciting speculative adds as we approach the regular season. And guess what, he's free! His Spring .154 BA against and .213 wOBA just screams "pick me, senpai!"

Just pick him.

Shane Baz, SP, B

As the wise queen Rupaul once said - wear the clothes, don't let clothes wear you. Baz has the stuff, but the stuff, perhaps, has also had Baz. Maybe no longer. Baz seems to finally be mastering his filthy, gut-wrenching, knee-buckling stuff - thus far, Baz has a .103 BA against through 23 plate appearances with an 89th percentile K rate alongside an 89th percentile chase rate. Yes, the BB% is still inflated - 17.4% to be exact - but that's acceptable when nobody can buy a hit. IT WAS NOT acceptable when hitters were crushing HRs off Baz in 2025. And when you have guys chasing and striking out? It's okay to throw outside the zone sometimes; this is basically the only profile where BB's are alright.

As the 59th SP off the board, Baz has way too much value to pass up. His 99 mph 4-seam and knuckle-curve combo are an elite punch-out combo that reminds me a lot of his former teammate Tyler Glasnow. The 4-seam gets by you in the zone, the curve makes you chase and look like a damn fool. Some of the other pitches being drafted around Baz include Imai Gallen Kelly Leiter Musgrove

Baz really stands out as having the best stuff here, and although Imai is extremely enticing, he is still just an unknown at this point. Baz's 4-seam fastball doesn't just rely on velocity, but also excellent iVB out of a really nice 3/4 slot. Pair that with his curveball, which although nasty, hasn't quite had good location due to the tremendous amount of break induced. But that shit currently has a 64% whiff rate in Spring Training alongside the 28% whiff rate 4-seam. If Baz can truly locate both pitches, he might wind up battling it out with Trevor Rogers for the title of Orioles' ace.

Sean Burke, SP,(Super Budget) C-

We all remember 2024 Sean Burke, don't we? 19 innings pitched through 4 starts with a 1.42 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. Looked like the next ace of the White Sox, coming in with his imposing 6'6 frame and throwing up to 99 mph on the 4-seam. Everyone who knew of the Burke was all in on the Burke as a 2025 sure-thing sleeper target. But then 2025 came, and the Burke suffered from decreased velocity for the majority of the season and just couldn't put it together, leaving us early adopters high and dry. There were glimpses, though. Towards the end of the season, Burke's velocity ticked up and with it his performance. In four of his last seven starts, Burke notched 7 or more K's, including a 10 K, 1 R, 1BB gem in his very last outing of the season. He was routinely delivering 98 mph 4-seams in that start, leading me to closely watch him in the Spring. And well, here we are, with Burke looking pretty damned good. He's averaging 95 mph on the 4-seam while reaching back for 98 mph, his pitch mix has looked well-balanced, and his chase rates are through the roof. Prospectsavant currently has a 110 grade on the 4-seam and a 109 grade on the slider, while TJ Stats has a 103 grade on the changeup. The stuff is there. And the 4-seam is solid beyond the velocity, which you can check out here.

But if you don't feel like reading that - Burke has excellent iVB on the 4-seam out of a good arm slot on good extension, and theoretically, this is an excellent 4-seam fastball on paper. And though it was a worse pitch in 2025, there were some areas of improvement: "Contact on Burke's 4-seam outside the zone (O-Contact%) rose from 54.5% to 68.1%, while his contact within the zone dropped from 90% to 82.3%. Normally, I'd considering everything we've just analyzed as a good thing - less fly balls, more weak grounders on more contact outside the zone is a good thing, even at the cost of a bit of whiff rate. Even the hard-hit% on the pitch was down to 43% in 2025, a marked drop from 52.4% in 2024." Burke has all of the makings of a sleeper pick going into 2026, and honestly, I think there's better odds for Burke being a good pitcher than a guy like Mackenzie Gore. Yet one is severely overrated, while the other is basically free.

Ryne Nelson, SP (Great Value) A-

"I've written quite a bit about Ryne Nelson, and you probably most recently saw me praise his 4-seam fastball in my Underrated 4-seams list. Let me excerpt that for ya: Watching the Diamondbacks jerk Nelson back and forth (no pause) between the bullpen and rotation had me dying inside. Everything about Nelson screamed front of the rotation material - his metrics looked solid, he's right in his prime having just turned 28, and he passes the eye test with ease. Diamondbacks management looked especially silly when he easily took advantage of the role, deliver quality starts in six of his final seven appearances on the year. You see that 99th percentile fastball run value? That's not a fluke. That accurately reflects just how good the pitch is: 72nd percentile velocity 87th percentile extension 19.2 inches IVB Nelson is one of the best high release point fastball throwers in the league, and although it doesn't make guys whiff or ground out at an insane rate, it happens to lead to a bunch of easy flyouts and foul balls. On top of the variety of ways it induces outs and poor contact, he has masterful location of the pitch with a really nice .244 wOBA. He threw the pitch on 62% usage, and I wouldn't expect that to change in 2026. Ryne also boasts a plus slider (.211 BA) and curveball ( .222 BA) that he uses as put-away pitches, so don't consider him a one-trick pony.Going into 2026, even a bit of improvement from Ryne could very well have him being considered the ace of the D-Backs rotation, and even a few Cy Young votes wouldn't be off the table if he manages to get that crispy 1.07 WHIP below the 1.00 mark. The stuff is there, the location is there, and now it's just a matter of the D-Backs staff finally showing a little bit of faith in Ryne as real SP. " So it should come as no surprise, then, that Ryne Nelson not only makes this cheat sheet, but also qualifies as a super value as the 78th pitcher off the board. Ryne Nelson had a fine 2025 in which he pitched to a 3.39 ERA and 1.07 WHIP, but I'm thinking a sleeper Cy Young-esque campaign is on the table for 2026.

Spring has been excellent for Ryne, and that's an understatement. He currently boasts a .205 BA against over 46 plate appearances with a .309 wOBA. And 16 Ks to 2 BB...damn. And the really fun part of this? He's throwing his cutter on 12.7% usage with a 46.2% whiff rate. 2025 Ryne Nelson threw it on 9.9% usage and it was his 4th pitch, so we're definitely seeing some intriguing experimentation that's led to some much higher K and Whiff rates. If Ryne actually intends to swap slider with his cutter, or use them more evenly, and winds up being more a power strikeout guy, a top 30 SP finish is in the cards. Hell, I already thought that was possible before the pitch mix change, now I'm even more in.

,

Kyle Leahy, SP, (Super Budget) C-

I've been watching Leahy pretty closely all Spring and I've gotta say, I'm in. A .229 BA, 65th percentile K rate, and 58th percentile BB rate are exactly what fantasy relevant starting pitchers are made of. Leahy has looked mostly sharp this Spring, with one awful outing being balanced out with one perfect outing alongside being generally good. It's become pretty clear that Leahy is tinkering with his pitch mix, throwing the sinker on 23% usage vs his 7.5% 2025 usage. The psStuff+ grades are modest here with only two offerings coming in at 100 or higher, but the sweeper is really carrying the overall 99 psStuff grade here with an absurdly high 125. And this sweeper is a real beauty, yet he's doesn't use it to punch out any of the guys in his latest outing:

https://www.mlb.com/video/kyle-leahy-k-s-five

This sweeper had a 29% K rate in 2025, so trust me, he's definitely tinkering here. Especially with that sinker which is coming in with some solid horizontal break and playing well alongside the changeup. Honestly, Leahy's 6-pitch mix is pretty overwhelming, and this is the perfect time to find out what works best. In regards to that 4-seam fastball - don't sleep on it despite the 97 psStuff+ grade. It has a really solid 16 inch iVB out of a 3/4 slot. Think Bryan Woo lite. Leahy, like a few of the other pitcher listed here, is completely free and not even drafted in a majority of leagues. You may be getting a pretty decent fantasy contributor here

Another excerpt from the fastball piece: "If you've been lurking the Gerbil Sports discord, you may or may not already be privy to the secret knowledge of a pitcher named Kyle Leahy. This guy was a "mediocre" reliever for the Cardinals in 2025 and flies under the radar for most fantasy managers after posting a 3.07 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 88 innings of relief work. But guess what? The Cardinals have announced he will be joining their 2026 rotation - have I caught your interest? His fastball clocks in at a respectable 95.4 mph and boasts 16.6 inches of induced vertical break, giving it really nice ride for a guy throwing at a 46 degree arm slot. The riding action is here in combination with good velocity, so it makes sense that Leahy outperformed his expected numbers by a good margin. Basically, the stuff is good:

Leahy's fangraphs projections show excellent marks across the board with a 102 Stuff+, 101 Location+, and 105 Pitching+. So although the xERA and xBA fell way below his actual production, it looks like having good stuff got him the outcomes he need to post an awesome 86th percentile Pitching Run Value. And of course, we can't just look at the fastball velocity - here at Gerbil Sports, we very much take perceived velocity seriously, and well, check out Leahy's 96th percentile extension. Now we're talking about a 100 mph perceived velocity. And standing 6'5? Leahy compares to Tyler Glasnow more than he does lesser pitchers in the league.The question is - will Leahy still have the stuff now that he's out of the bullpen and can't empty the tank over the course of one or two innings? That's something we'll have to keep an eye on, but because of the elite extension, 1 mph drop on fastball velocity wouldn't be a death sentence for Leahy's 4-seam viability. And yes, this is a fastball article, but I still want to show you the run values on his other pitches if that's cool:

All but one of Leahy's pitches accumulated positive run value, and the curveball is of particular note coming in hot with a .195 xBA and 35% whiff rate. A perfect wipeout pitch for a good 4-seam. Now, check out some Leahy film for yourself, and you be the judge. Leahy is a perfect high upside, buy low candidate, and at age 28, he may very well be a part of your dynasty rotation for years to come! The 4-seam isn't quite as electric as some others we'll look at as we compile this list, but I promise you, it's pretty good.

Randy Vasquez, SP, C+ (Super Budget)

An enormous jump in 4-seam velocity has highlighted an absurdly good Spring Training for Vasquez, who's seemingly jumped from afterthought to draft steal. For a guy who's 4-seam has jumped from 93 mph to 95.7 mph (and is is topping out at 97.4), 200th pitcher off the board seems like a bargain. And it's not just the velocity jump - Randy has a .188 BA against through 54 plate appearances. Vasquez' 4-seam was already pretty damned good in 2025, where it had a .220 BA and .326 SLG against with an accumulated 7 run value. Now that it's even better and we're seeing a pretty notable usage increase - 39.1% vs 21% in 2025 - this could be one of the more unexpected breakouts of the 2026 campaign. But it's not just velocity that a fastball makes - this pitch is currently rocking 15 inches of iVB out of a 3/4 slot, giving it some really nice ride in the zone. We've talked a lot about the 4-seam, but we can't sleep on the rest of the arsenal. Like the 4-seam, the sinker velocity is also up to 95 mph from 92 mph, and is currently being thrown on 13.4% usage in Spring. That brings the total fastball usage up to 52% vs 40% in 2025, so Vasquez is definitely feeling those pitches, and why wouldn't he be? He's dominating. This kind of velocity will only make the rest of the pitch mix that much more lethal and I expect the offspeed and breaking stuff to really play up as hitters are forced to sit on either fastball. TJ Stats also grades those pitches way more favorably with a 108 on the sweeper, 112 on the slider, 111 on the changeup, and 105 on the curveball. At Vasquez' current ADP, which may just be a waiver pickup in most leagues, you'd be a fool not to take a chance here.

Braxton Ashcraft, SP, B-

Ashcraft has become one of the more mainstream "sleeper" picks in the fantasy space, but alas, I agree. Ashcraft has good stuff with fantastic pitch shape that plays well into what I look for - a diagonal tunneling effect and a complimentary pitch to the 4-seam (being the sinker and changeup). If you read my Pitching Prospect piece on Patreon, you'll see more of that pitch shape talk. Seriously, check it out, that shit took me over a month to write!

While I'm high on Ashcraft, so seems to be the rest of the world. His ADP grows less and less valuable, and you may even see people reaching. His current ADP is listed around 93 and I'd feel perfectly comfortable drafting him as the 80th pitcher off the board, but I'm sure many of you won't feel so comfortable reaching. He just feels way safer than guys ahead of him like Cantillo, Peterson, and Manaea. His Spring Training performance has been pretty lackluster, but I can recognize that he's been tinkering with his sinker on higher usage - I expect that dominant 4-seam to come more into play when games actually matter.

Cam Schlittler, SP, A+

Shchlitty is in contention for the best 4-seam fastball in the league, alongside guys like Jacob Misiorowski, Eury Perez, and Tarik Skubal. We're taking about a 112 Stuff+ grade with elite velocity and iVB, so good in 2025 that hitters bat .173 against it. The pitch accumulated 9 run value in only 700 pitches. To put that into perspective, Skubal's 4-seam accumulated 12 run value in 835 pitches. They're damned close in terms of value. Spring Training has been no different for Schlittler, who more or less seems to be damned near unhittable. Having pitched 23 plate appearances, he rocks a .182 BA against with a 43.5% strikeout rate and only a single walk. All of his pitches are grading out above an absurd 110 psStuff+ mark, led by a 139 psStuff+ sinker. He's also only throwing his 4-seam at 34.1% usage, as opposed to the 56% usage we saw last year for the Yankees.This means Schlittler is trying to become a more complete pitcher rather than rely solely on the 4-seam. So far, it's working. Consider him a top 20 pitcher going around pick 42 and reach accordingly.

Cade Cavalli, SP (Budget, Great Value) C+

Cavalli looks like an entirely new pitcher this Spring thanks to the introduction of a plus Sweeper to compliment his 4-seam fastball and curveball. It's perfectly complimented the curveball with just slightly less drop and a bit more gloveside break while maintaining indentical velocity at 85 mph. It's just really keeping hitters off-balance, and they're suddenly whiffing a hell of a lot on the curveball. The combined 43% usage on these two offerings basically has them fusing to become the "primary pitch" for Cavalli, ahead of 38.3% usage 4-seam. This is exactly the kind of relief the 4-seam needed after getting hit around pretty bad last year and it's awesome to see Cavalli's development come along so nicely. He has a ridiculous .037 BA against right now in Spring as is looking to quickly cement himself as the Nationals' ace. This is a steal at his 107 ADP.

Logan Henderson, SP, (Super Value) B

If Henderson breaks camp, just grab him. His iVB out of a 3/4 slot on the 4-seam and absolutely disgusting complimentary changeup have made him an un-hittable pitcher, even at the major league level. Because the stuff doesn't grade highly nor stand out on film, he's being severely underrated. As the 90th pitcher off the board, this is one of the easier choices. He'll remain a king of low xBAs thanks to his under-the-hood greatness.

Sandy Alcantara, SP, B+

Sandy's 2025 Fangraphs Stuff+ graded out at a 108 score, which was well above league average, even as he struggled to find any kind of success in terms of...you know...production. But his last two months were solid, with a 3.69 ERA in August and 3.71 in September/October. His Spring performance has been mixed - the 6.75 ERA ugly, but the two most recent outings have been solid, in which he tossed 3 innings of perfect ball against the Astros with 4Ks followed by 4 innings with 5 Ks and 2 runs against the Mets. Looking at the spring training data below, Sandy's statcast is looking way more...well...Sandy-esque. We're pretty accustomed to seeing flamin' hot bars for the former Cy Young winner, and the stuff is grading quite well! His two fastballs are coming in hot at 97 mph and have earned psStuff+ grades of 111 and 103. TJ Stats currently has each and every pitch with a grade over 100. None of this is surprising - his his 2025 fangraphs Stuff+ came in at a 108 grade as previously mentioned, even as he struggled. I think Sandy at his current 41 ADP is a good value and wouldn't hesitate to reach to make him the 35th SP off the board. I believe in a Sandy comeback now that he's two years removed from TJ.

Chris Paddack, SP, (Super Budget) C-

I know it seems like I'm falling into the Chris Paddack trap yet again, BUT HEAR ME OUT! Paddack has come into spring training with a new arm slot, a brand new offering in a beautiful sweeper, and a revitalized 4-seam fastball. I was super keen on Paddack in 2025, and perhaps as a detriment to both myself and readers who trusted me and added him. Something about Paddack stood out to me on film, and whenever it was working for him, it was really working well. Paddack's 112 Location+ and 105 Pitching+ were testaments to what I observed, but ultimately the 92 Stuff+ proved his pitches were just too hittable. There was just no swing and miss to be found. I've been keeping an eye on Paddack in Spring Training and he looks like an entirely new pitcher. Nobody has managed to put up an earned run against him through 6 innings pitched and he has 6 Ks to boot. I'm telling you, this is a different Chris Paddack. The last time I checked the prospectsavant data, his 4-seam fastball had a really nice iVB and increased velocity out of a lower arm slot, and his new sweeper was providing a balance to his pitch mix that he didn't previously have. Hitters are whiffing on his offerings right now, and that's more than you could say about 2025 Paddack. Paddack isn't even being drafted in most leagues right now and is shaping up to be a really nice sleeper to stabilize a redraft rotation. I know it might be hard to trust me on this one, and that's okay, let's just keep an eye on it. Also, check this out :https://fishonfirst.com/forums/topic/69801-chris-paddack-using-secondary-pitches-to-early-success/He's been working on his spin rates, so perhaps we're seeing the fruits of his labor!

Luis Garcia, 2B, C+

High expected stats, a wide xwOBA vs wOBA differential (bad luck), and a strong statcast. Garcia has an above average hit tool but the swing decisions have been lacking. He's tested highly in several batted ball data sets, including blasts and bat speed/ squared-up contact, which you already know I love. Go check out some of those lists if you want more details on Garcia's metrics. His 67th percentile whiff rate in conjunction with a 63rd percentile hard-hit rate is immense, and if these even improve a little, his swing decisions might not end up mattering. Garcia has multiple paths to improvement:

A. Going to increase his power and improve

B. Going to increase his swing decisions and improve

C. Improve both and become an elite hitter over the course of one off-season

Garcia is currently the #18 2B by ADP, but he has the hit tool potential to jump to #8. Just keep that in mind.

TJ Rumfield, 1B,(Super Budget) C+

He's displayed excellent bat-to-ball skills and discipline at AAA over the last few years, but the power has been average to slightly-above-average. Rumfield's lack of muscle on his lanky 6'5 frame has always been the #1 reason he hasn't been able to take advantage of his excellent Pull AIR %, but things have changed going into 2026. He's reached a top EV of 113 mph in Spring Training, whereas his top EV of 2025 was 110.7 mph. This slight increase in power, and his new home at good ol' Coors, should make Rumfield a threat to be a super breakout in 2026. I'm predicting something along the lines of a .260 BA, .340 OBP, with 20 HRs and a .780 OPS in a full-time role. He's a very well-balanced hitter and has all of the potential to become a top 15 1B.

Rumfield will almost certainly go un-drafted, so if you feel extremely confident in him, take a guy like Aranda late and keep Rumfield around as utility, or just keep an eye on him and be ready to add off waivers. In my opinion, there's way too much talent at 1B to go in early on an elite 1B, and Rumfield might wind up becoming a solid utility player in deeper leagues.

Matt McLain, 2B,(Great Value), A

It's looking like Matt McLain is back to full strength after a 2024 shoulder injury and subsequent surgery sapped him of his power in 2025. And guess what? A lot of people won't know the power is back, so snag him at a solid ADP and reap the rewards. It's hard to imagine McLain isn't closer to his stellar 2023 rookie-self than the post-injury 2025 weakling, so I'm going to project 20/25 with a .340 OBP and .780+ OPS. His Spring EV's have been fantastic and among the highest on the Reds, with a max exit velocity of 113 mph.

Honestly, I feel like I'm actually being pretty conservative by projecting him a bit under his 2023 marks. The power is back with this one, and I think there's a world where he finishes closer to Jazz Chisholm than anyone might expect. He's currently the 13th 2B by ADP - fuck that. Snag him around 10th, and enjoy the top 5 production.

Wyatt Langford, OF, A+

It seems like the Langford hype has died down after two consecutive sub .800 OPS seasons, but trust me, 2026 is going to be the year it all comes together. He's just now entering his mid 20's and has flashed all of the tools to become a 30/30, .850+ OPS player. This should be Langford's lowest ADP season since his debut, and most likely to be his most productive season on the field. He's currently going as the #13 OF by ADP, I personally have him at #8. Try to capitalize on that. I get that this isn't really a "sleeper" by any stretch of the imagination, but we're also looking for good value here. If you can snag Langford as the 13th OF off the board and get top 8 value, or even top 10 really, then I consider than an enormous success. His Spring training inspires confidence with a .483 BA and 4 dingers.

Sal Stewart, 1B (Super Value), B+

Imagine you're playing a fantasy baseball RPG, and you've turned down 1B quest reward after 1B quest reward in favor of other loot. You're lacking a 1B, but you're stacked at every other position. Then, for your valiant efforts, you've now unlocked an Elden Ring-esque secret - Sal Stewart - praise the sun! Sal is currently the 21st 1B off the board on average and seems to be a completely and totally under-the-radar player in redraft circles. Grab him...reach for him - he's yours - unless you wish for him not to be. But why would you do such a thing, O' reader mine?

There's just too much potential value here late in drafts to ignore, whether you've already taken one of our other favorite first basemen or not. I think it comes as no surprise to readers that I adore the fuck out of Sal Stewart and find his hit tool to be absolutely intoxicating. Stewart boasts plus power alongside some extremely respectable contact rates and launch angles. It's rare to see a guy with 80th percentile power metrics across the board also manage to come out with a 50th percentile whiff and 50th percentile sweet-spot. Did I mention he also has an excellent bat speed to squared-up ratio at 50th/70th?

I just have a feeling that reaching for Sal Stewart as 1B #11-15 is going to be a season-defining move for whoever dares muster the bravery to do so. The Reds lineup with a revitalized Matt McLain is about to be fucking disgusting and Sal Stewart is going to drive in 100 RBIs in only his second season ;)

Praise the Sal.

Andrew Vaughn, 1B (Good Value, Budget), C+ Vaughn's Spring Training metrics have been as strong as you'd expect after his awesome 2025 Brewers campaign, and as it stands, he's the #25 1B off the board. For a guy with this kind of hit tool, he's an absolute steal. And yet another reason to wait on drafting a 1B rather than take an elite guy like Ben Rice.It's unfortunate that I'm making a compelling case against one of my favorite players, but I'm here to help. Vaughn has .800+ OPS and solid counting stats written all over him, much like Sal Stewart, and would be a fanatic utility option with his dual position eligibility.

Marcelo Mayer, 2B/3B, C-

As 2B #34, it's hard to not appreciate the value on one of the most toolsy infielders in the game. There's two things Mayer showed in his underwhelming 2025 debut: Good bat speed, a good launch angle, and a good hard-hit rate. Not awesome, not amazing...just good. That's okay for an age 23 rookie - that's a solid foundation to build on. And especially with a gimpy wrist.

The 6'3 Mayer is once again hitting balls hard, this time in Spring Training, and it's looking like the wrist surgery took well. This is good news for savvy redraft managers - had Marcelo been fully healthy and absolutely crushed his debut, you can be sure he'd be a top 15 2B off the board. Mayer's excellent hit tool and above-average plate discipline in what's looking like a stacked Red Sox lineup stands to have him burst into the top 10-15 in 2025, especially with how scarce 2B is. We've gotta thank Caleb Durbin for pushing him out of 3B.

Colson Montgomery, SS/3B, C+

Montgomery has done himself zero favors this spring as he's hit for a .231 BA with three HRs to his name (thanks to a recent surge). And that's cool, because we want Colson at all costs - a lower ADP is always a thing to be celebrated! As the #22 SS off the board, there may not be a better value to be had at any other position. Montgomery boasts 97th percentile bat speed with excellent velocity and launch angles, thus his absurd 21 HRs in only 284 plate appearances - good for a .529 SLG. This kind of pop is rare at SS, and I'm actually pretty high on the White Sox lineup going into 2026 (though maybe I'm delusional?) Colson reminds me a lot of Troy Tulowitzki, perhaps my favorite fantasy SS of all-time, and I expect him to continue mashing baseballs and producing run value. Do I think he'll manage another .529 SLG? Probably not. But I could see 20-25 HRs with a .480 SLG and .800 OPS as a pretty safe bet. As a late round pick, that would be phenomenal value.

Alec Burleson, 1B/OF, B

Burleson's positional versatility and hit tool make him insanely valuable late in drafts. He's one of few guys you can very nearly rely on to give you above-average ratios and counting stats across the board. His unique blend of bat speed and squared-up % comes out to a 94/26 score, an elite grade in one of the tests we love here at Gerbil Sports. Add onto that an extremely healthy 18.7% blast per contact, and Burleson is looking like a tantalizing option at his ADP. I wouldn't be surprised if he only continues to improve, rather than regress or stagnate - 25 HRs with a .300 BA isn't off the table. Burleson's spring training EVs have also been healthy, hitting up 109 mph. Grab Burleson as an outfielder, and convert him to 1B in the event of injury - he's got you covered! Burleson is one of the most metrically sound players on this list.

Gavin Sheets, 1B/OF, C-

Sheets is a Pull AIR% god and it paid off big time in 2025, where Sheets smacked 19 dingers with a .746 OPS for the Padres. His last HR of the season was an absolute beauty too:

https://www.reddit.com/r/baseball/comments/1nb3k5x/highlight_gavin_sheets_cranks_a_ball_451_feet/

But does a slightly above league average hitter deserve hype going into 2026? I mean, come on, a .252 BA and .746 shouldn't get anyone going, right?So here's the deal - Sheets had an excellent first half of the season, and then ran into a wall. Not metaphorically. Literally. Sheets ran into the outfield wall on June 1st and suffered a head, hip, and wrist injury. He never recovered. Check out these splits:1st Half - .265 BA, .775 OPS, 14 of his 19 HRs2nd Half (and only 196 plate appearances) - .229 BA, .695 OPSRunning into the non-proverbial wall really fucked Sheets over, and now we sit in Spring Training, wondering if we can snag 1st half sheets on the cheap. Well, it turns out Sheets is putting in the effort to completely change his hitting profile:

After posting a 48th percentile BB% and 28th percentile chase%, Sheets has entered Spring Training with a brand new philosophy, that being 'stop fucking chasing and take walks.' His 80th percentile Chase% and 93rd percentile BB% have really shown up, as Sheets has 8 walks and a .429 BA through 28 plate appearances. This is a pretty drastic change in hitting philosophy, and if manages to actually carry over into the regular season, Sheets might find himself having the best year of his career. Sheets DID NOT make good swing decisions last year, posting -11 run value over the heart of the plate while swinging only 63% of the time (league average is 72%). And though Sheets still struggles to swing at or make contact with pitches in the zone, he's also not chasing and making contact on pitches outside the zone. We're getting there!Sheets is a super late draft pick with sneaky pop, a high Pull AIR %, and a hopefully a new approach towards being a high OBP player. You basically have nothing to lose taking him towards the end of the draft, other than a roster spot. Because of the positional utility of 1B/OF, Sheets is a nice utility bat to own.

Corey Seager, SS (lol), A or F

Managers are so scared of this dude's injury history that he's currently the 10th SS off the board, despite boasting the #2 hit tool amongst all shortstops. Between the perpetual injuries and his bad luck in 2025, Seager has never been less valued in redraft leagues.

Is this a trap? Possibly. But imagine drafting Seager at his ADP...and he finally has a fully healthy season...damn. This could be a league-winning move. And at this ADP, it's way less risky than previous years - you could overcome theoretically overcome Seager injury this time around, whereas drafting him in the 2nd or 3rd in previous years was basically a death sentence. Just go for it...if you dare.

Carter Jensen, C (Great Value) B-

I doubt there's any better value at C than Jensen as the 18th catcher off the board. His limited 69 PA sample size was as elite as it gets, and really reflected everything we saw from Jensen at AAA - pure dominance. He very nearly came out with the elusive All-Red Statcast, only falling under the 50th percentile mark in whiff at the 48th percentile.

His .300 BA, .391 OBP, and .941 OPS made him one of the best waiver-wire claims of the season. That being said, it would be silly to claim he's going to be this Judge-esque brand of elite over the course of a full season. But the talent and top-end power is very much there, so I'm personally going to bank on Jensen hitting 20 HRs with a .275 BA and plenty of RBI production in a nice Royals lineup. Jensen is currently my #1 C target when factoring ADP and ceiling, and I'll be aiming to grab him as the 15th C off the board, just to make sure I secure the bag.

Moises Ballasteros, C (Insane Value) C If you want to say fuck it and wait until the very end of drafts to snag a C, you're in luck. By sheer circumstance, there's currently a catcher with such a prolific bat tool that waiting to snag him towards the end of drafts could wind up being a league-winning decision. Moises is currently the 29th catcher off boards, while also boasting a top 10 hit tool amongst all catchers. The only reason he's going this late is because he's basically an unknown with an extremely limited sample size and name recognition that doesn't match Carter Jensen. His 66 plate appearances were tiny sample size, but I promise you, the .298 BA and .868 OPS isn't a fluke. This kid has been mashing throughout his entire career, and even in Spring Training, he's been awesome with a .355 BA and some great metrics. Notably, the power is beginning to show. If you don't want to spend meaningful draft capital on a C, but still desire amazing production at C (you greedy fucker), Ballasteros could make that dream come true. This kind of talent late in drafts is too good to pass up, and I'll be taking him as a bench bat and utility star.

Ben Rice, C/1B

Read this for a much more analytical write-up: https://www.patreon.com/posts/2-28-redraft-1b-151096258?utm_medium=clipboard_copy&utm_source=copyLink&utm_campaign=postshare_creator&utm_content=join_link We're going to treat Rice as a more valuable C than 1B, and right now, he's the #4 C off the board. I have him only being behind Cal Raleigh, and closer to Raleigh than anyone else. He's so much better than Goodman right behind him that I find it laughable! He's about to be a 30 HR, .280 hitter in a stacked Yankees lineup, with positional flexibility between 1B and C. But.....

Drake Baldwin, C

Baldwin is right there with Rice in hit tool, and is currently the #8 C off the board. I have him #4, behind Raleigh and Rice, and ahead of Contreras. Baldwin boasts a prodigious hit tool and should provide Atlanta with every single aspect of a solid fantasy contributor aside from stolen bases - ratios, counting stats, and dingers are exemplary. As much as I love Rice, it may be savvier to just "reach" for Baldwin as the #6 C and enjoy your steal.

Gabriel Moreno, C (Good Value), C+

Jensen might be the highest ceiling value catcher, but Moreno is definitely the safest ceiling value catcher...if you assume he's going to remain healthy. Check out the statcasts below, dating back to 2023 - that's some sexy gradual improvement, but isn't all gradual improvement a beautiful thing? Moreno has not had a whiff rate under the 80th percentile in his entire career, while the power and discipline have quietly crept upward. 2025 was shaping up to be a statement year for Moreno but was cut short by injury. In only 309 plate appearances, Moreno blasted 9 dingers with a .285 BA, .353 OBP, and .786 OPS. That's 16 HRs with fantastic ratios extrapolated over a full season's worth of plate appearances.

Right now, Moreno is the 15th catcher off the board. If you're willing to gamble on his health holding up, the hit tool is all but guaranteed here. This guy isn't going to whiff and he's going to be on base a hell of a lot for a C. The power floor seems to be 15 HRs, but if his steady progression of improved power metrics holds, he could definitely smack a quiet 20. Although he hasn't produced well in Spring training, the metrics show some power alongside good contact rates - a 112.8 mph EV for Gabriel Moreno is real fucking promising!

Addison Barger, 3B/OF (Good Value), B

If you're looking for the highest-ceiling hit tool late in drafts, then look no further. If I encountered a wild omnipotent being, and it forced me to choose one late-round hitter to blast 30 dingers, it'd decisively be between Kerry Carpenter or Addison Barger. But unlike Carpenter, it seems like Barger is still well on the rise towards an elite ceiling, has a clean injury history, and has some really convenient positional versatility.

Being able to mix and match lineups is an extremely underrated quality of life bonus, and like Alec Burleson, Addison Barger excels in allowing you to easily navigate days off and inconvenient injuries. And as good as that Tigers lineup is, I'm a bit more bullish on what the Jays have going in 2026. There's going to be ample counting stat opportunities here.I see a 30 HR/.250 BA/.820 OPS campaign as being achievable for Barger.

A Pair of 20/20 OF threats deep in drafts:

Mickey Moniak & Evan Carter, OF, C,

If you're looking to play it real risky and completely neglect your outfield until the very end of drafts, these are two 5-tool players to gamble on. Both have speed and power upside, and also look really solid in Spring Training. Moniak seems to be the safer power threat after hitting 24 HRs in 2025, but Evan Carter is clearly the safer stolen base threat, swiping 14 bags in only 194 plate appearances.

There's a decent chance one of these two puts it all together, so flip a coin. I'm probably leaning a bit more towards Moniak just by way of the safer power and his two stolen bases attempts in Spring Training, but Evan Carter is currently reaching some insane EVs in Spring, maxing out 112.6 mph thus far. That's a lot of power.

Jakob Marsee, OF, B+

Marsee is currently going behind a bunch of guys who don't compare:Lawrence ButlerBrandon NimmoJo AdellOneil CruzJose AltuveThe list goes on and on. Marsee is the only player this far down the current outfield list that will almost certainly give you a .275 BA, .780 OPS, and 30+ SBs, with Maikel coming close at #26. Odds are, though, that you're drafting Maikel to play 3B or 2B. Marsee is being slept on due to a lack of track record and top end power, but don't let a lower HR count dissuade you from excellence in every other category. Hitting ahead of guys like Xavier Edwards, Kyle Stowers, Agustin Ramirez, and Griffin Conine (underrated guy, trust) is going to result in a ton of runs, and he'll undoubtedly lead this team in that category.

What really make Marsee tick are excellent bat-to-ball and discipline metrics:

85th percentile sweet-spot

79th percentile squared-up

95th percentile chase

79th percentile whiff

55th percentile BB

Marsee is just constantly putting the ball in play at excellent launch angles, and when he's not, he's likely drawing a walk. And for a guy that steals at every opportunity, that's a fucking beautiful thing. I'd consider Marsee to be OF 23, right behind Seiya Suzuki. But I could easily justify taking him as early as OF 15 if we're truly infatuated. Marsee was closer to what we want out of Jackson Merrill than Merrill himself!

Daylen Lile,OF (Super Value) B-

Lile has had a real fucking rough Spring - 6 hits (2HRs) in 36 plate appearances and 10 Ks, to be exact. It's not an exaggeration to say he's looked completely lost at the plate. But it is what it is. We ignore when our guys do poorly, and only pay attention when they do well! Confirmation bias only, please! Lile was one of the better prospect breakouts of 2026, finishing the year with a .299 BA and .845 OPS. We've talked about Lile plenty 'round these parts, but just a refresher - this guy always makes contacts, and we're talking contact at perfect launch angles. Just look at that sweet, sweet 100th percentile sweet-spot. Lile has my young favorite slap-hitter profile in the league, even ahead of Jacob Wilson, and there's some real untapped potential here. Lile boasts a sneaky elite 92nd percentile sprint speed, and managed to steal 8 bases in 2025 - there's room for growth here. A 20/20 season from Lile is in the cards, on top of excellent ratios. That may not seem as enticing as Marsee, but keep in mind that Lile is going to be a little bit more spicy when it comes to pumping up your batting average - think Luis Arraez, but with more speed. Lile is currently OF #51, and that's a hell of a low spot to find 20/20 production with excellent ratios. Grab him late and make Like your final starting OF.

Kerry Bonds, OF (Super Value and Reliable), B+

Kerry Bonds is basically my redraft husband. Every year, without fail, I go out of my way to snag this guy a tad bit earlier than his average ADP, and every year, he reciprocates my unconditional and unwavering love Is it actually unconditional? No. He better keep smacking that ball. But the point still stands - Kerry is reliable, good ol' comfort food in the fantasy space. 2025 represented yet another solid year for Kerry. His .OPS did fall under .800 for the first time in a while, thanks to several rough stretches at the plate as his hamstrings got the best of him, and word on the street is he battled those very hamstring issues for the entirety of 2025 (but really, his entire career). But in spite of that, we saw Kerry post 26 dingers with a .497 SLG wile accumulating 66 runs and 62 RBIs in only 464 plate appearances. And while I do say "only," 464 plate appearances actually represents a fairly healthy year for the injury-plagued slugger. Damn.

And that's always 'the thing' with Kerry, isn't it? What could he do over the course of a fully healthy season? Is it even possible at this point? I'm probably going to, yet again, gamble on Kerry finally having his fully healthy, 30 HR "breakout" campaign, because at this ADP, why not? He's currently going as the 54th outfielder in redraft and I dare you to find another 30 HR potential guy smack-dab in the middle of a top five run-producing lineup.

Wilyer Abreu,OF (WBC HERO!), B+

I have a hunch that this'll be the last time Wilyer falls below the top 30 outfielder demarcation. He's a damned good hitter who's only just now entering his prime, and much like Kerry, would have had a really awesome season extrapolated over the course of a full season's worth of plate appearances. 22 HRs in only 417 plate appearances with a .469 SLG and .786 OPS, before the age of 26, is some sneaky good business. Add onto that his 53 runs and 69 (nice) RBIs and you're looking at some really nice value super late in drafts with a ceiling for 80/80 in both categories. The Red Sox are primed to have a playoff-caliber lineup and fangraphs has Wilyer projected to be hitting 5th, smack-dab in the middle, primed for premium RBI production. If Wilyer stays healthy and logs 500 plate appearances, 90 RBIs seems like a reasonable projection here. But don't sleep on run production either. The bottom of the Red Sox lineup goes :Caleb Durbin Ceddanne Marcelo Mayer Narvaez This has the potential to be one of the best bottom-of-the- lineups in the league, and I particularly like Durbin hitting behind Wilyer with his 96th percentile whiff rate.

Heliot Ramos, OF (Decent Value), B-

If you've read my blast data piece, you probably already know I'm pretty bullish on a Heliot Ramos bounce-back season. Even in a down 2025, Ramos blasted balls at an elite rate despite making poor swing decisions and decreasing his Fast Swing % as he took more pitches (wouldn't commit to swinging hard and often). But now it's 2026, and so far, Heliot Ramos has absolutely crushed Spring Training in a small sample size (but struggled in the WBC):

Heliot swinging at everything in the zone whole posting a modest chase rate is exactly what we want to see, and his 7 hits in 14 plate appearance is a testament to just how well he's crushing anything in the zone. This is literally the cure for his 2025 passivity ailment where he took way too many pitches over the heart of the plate, and if this carries over into the regular season...watch out. Remember, this kid is still 26, and he has multiple 20 HR campaigns under his belt. Don't sleep on him.

Mike Trout, OF, A or F

Remember, back issues linger. Proceed with caution.

Michael Busch, 1B, (Great Value) A

Check out the 1B tier list over on the Patreon for a detailed analysis. Busch is going 12th amongst 1B, which is fucking crazy for a 30 HR, .850+ OPS slugger. If you truly want to find the best value at 1B and not gamble on someone like Aranda and his health a tad bit later, Busch is perfect. He'll deliver excellent ratios and a ton of counting stats being a middle-of-the-lineup guy on a potent Cubs offense. I myself will probably snag Busch if he's available as the 12th 1B off the board (or even 10th). Especially with the news that he'll be a full-time player against all pitching.

Keep an eye on these guys: Troy Melton - Extremely filthy pitcher, but both hurt and out of the rotation for now. He'll be an uber-tier waiver pickup the minute he finds himself back in the rotation. Tanner McDougal - My favorite pitching prospect that has yet to debut, I expect him to be fantasy relevant the minute he's promoted. George Klassen - My second-favorite pitching prospect that has yet to debut, whether or not he breaks the rotation out of camp is to be determined. But his ceiling is extremely high and he has some of the best stuff of any pitcher at any level. Jack Wenninger - My #3 yet-to-debut pitching prospect, I expect a promotion by the end of the year. He has one of the nastiest splitters across all levels of ball and the 4-seam is now MLB ready. He's better than Tong.

Ryan Bergert - Bergert is one of my favoreite under-the-radar, high iVB guys. I'm disappointed he's starting the season at AAA, but look to add him the minute he's back in the rotation. It'll happen at some point.

Sam Antonacci - First infield injury-replacement up for the White Sox, he's much better than Chase Meidroth. I have him graded higher than Bazzana at 2B. Joshua Baez - 5-tool OF having a nice spring after a breakout year at AA. It's looking like he may break camp as a starter, in which case, he's an excellent late-round gamble. Henry Bolte - Another 5-tool OF, Bolte has dominated this Spring and if you've read my hitting prospects list over on Patreon, you already know I love this kid. He'll be up by the end of the year.

Lars Nootbaar - Excellent metrics and a good hit tool, destroyed by poor swing decisions. There's always going to be potential here.

EDITS:

AJ Blubaugh - The jury is still out on whether or not he's joining the rotation. He's one of my favorite pitchers in the Astros' organization and I own him in every dynasty league. If winds up in the rotation, he's instantly an elite sleeper pick.

Kyle Karros - Meant to incldue him. He's having an excellent Spring Training after gaining some muscle this offseason, and it's showing in his EVs. He could wind up being a solid 3B in deeper leagues.

Connely Early - Forgot he was out of the rotation to start the year. Easy NA stash or waiver add when he's promoted. Hurston Waldrep - Going to be one of the premiere midseason adds when he returns from the IL.