Gerbil's Waiver Wire Week 9 - Troy & Troy

Troy Melton, SP, DET

If you followed my work at all last year, you know I absolutely adore Troy Melton. I often compare him to guys like Eury Perez and Jacob Misiorowski, in that he's a tall and lanky guy with fantastic extension and velocity out of a 3/4 slot - in this case, a slightly higher 3/4.

And although his 100 mph perceived velocity 4-seam doesn't have the kind of tremendous ride that you see with those aforementioned names, it's still an impressive enough offering when you consider just how potent the complimentary offspeed and breaking stuff is here. Melton's splitter is an absolutely devastating offering, and among the best splitters in the league. On 8% usage in 2025, it induced a .067 BA and .067 SLG against, though only a 13% whiff rate. Hitters could make contact, but the kind of contact you love to see - shit contact on the ground.

Melton threw his 4-seam on 41.8% usage and the slider on 23% usage, and both hovered around the 30% whiff rate mark.

In Melton's 2026 AAA rehab (only 2 IP), we saw something a bit interesting, even if the sample size was minuscule - he threw his slider 13 times, 4-seam 12 times, and splitter 9 times. Because Melton's 4-seam isn't quite as potent due to a lower iVB to arm slot ratio, throwing the slider as a primary offering with increased splitter usage could be an excellent way for Melton to change things up and improve on what we saw in 2025. I think Melton could find massive success with these usage rates, and I love the idea of Melton's 4-seam being the complimentary pitch rather than the primary.

https://prospectsavant.com/player/675512

Ezequiel Duran, INF, TEX

Duran continues to be the Ranger's most consistently productive hitter, seemingly immune the cold stretches. His average exit velocity has been his most impressive metric all season long, but we're really starting to see that sweet-spot steadily rise as we approach the summer months. If Duran keeps hitting the ball hard at these launch angles, a barrel rate increase is basically inevitable. What I'm saying, I suppose, is that the best may be yet to come for Duran. And if this guy felt confident enough to leverage his 88th percentile sprint speed to swipe more bags? He'd genuinely be a league-winner.

Will Klein, RP, LA

In saves + holds leagues, Klein has worked his way onto the cusp of fantasy relevance, with four relief appearances and 5 IP dating back to May 15th, including three scoreless appearances over the last week. He's proven himself to be an extremely potent arm, boasting both a 71st percentile GB rate, 66th percentile K rate, 73rd percentile BB rate, and 97th percentile barrel rate.

Basically, Will Klein has multiple ways to get outs, completely prevents the long ball, and doesn't issue walks. Pair that profile with a 101+ mph perceived velocity 4-seam and this is the stuff closers are made of.

Where this profile gets interesting is when you take a peek at the sweeper and curveball - although they're similar pitches with similar movement, Klein only throws the curveball to lefties and the sweeper to righties, while throwing the 4-seam equally to both. Always great to see a guy with a repetoire that takes care of both sides and knows what he feels comfortable throwing.

Tommy Troy

I'm going to excerpt from my 2025 Underrated Hitter Prospects to Buy piece, because I think it's pretty relevant now that he's been promoted. But the TLDR is that Tommy Troy has a deceptive power and contact profile that doesn't quite show up in the metrics thanks to his fantastic eye for recognizing and making quality contact against fastballs - specifically the 4-seam and sinker. That's continued to hold true here in 2026, where he's posted a .280 xBA and .475 xSLG against the 4-seam, and .298 xBA and .491 xSLG agains the sinker.

https://prospectsavant.com/player/694371

Excerpt:

The #2 prospect in the D-backs system isn't exactly a hidden gem, but a lot of that prospect ranking consists of positive defensive evaluations over a strong hit tool. If you look at the metrics below, you'll probably notice Troy doesn't exactly have a lot of pop in his bat - in fact, his power is kind of nonexistent. This realllllllly isn't what you want to see from a prospect right on the edge of reaching The Bigs.

AA, 399 PA - 286 .BA, .382 OBP, .843 OPS, 21 SB

AAA, 182 PA - .295 BA, .381 OBP, .811 OPS, 3 SB

A few things to note here, the first being the OBP.

The OBP remained consistent at the .3815 mark across both levels of ball, proving Troy has good vision and discipline regardless of the competition. I wouldn't necessarily say it's safe to assume his OBP will remain high in the majors, but it also wouldn't be a bad gamble if you were to assume so. His 87th percentile whiff rate and 82nd percentile zone contact rate, in conjunction with a 67th percentile chase rate, lead to some quality contact on pitches within the zone, which then result in solid outcomes.. This kid is either walking, or putting the ball in play, and his plus speed really allows him to get plenty of infield singles and tough doubles:

Troy's spray chart shows he's fully capable of using the entirety of the field, with most of his singles going oppo and most of his doubles pulled. Troy's variety of intercept points and lack of an overall tendency make him an unpredictable hitter for fielders to scheme against, even if they think playing the pull side is more beneficial due to the 43.5% rate. This may sound redundant, saying there's a lack of overall tendency when he very clearly favors the pull side...but....

Because his oppo GB% only rests at 8.4% and overall Oppo % rests at 24%, defenses tend to play the pull side more often. That 8.4% oppo GB rate then comes off as being an extremely high success tendency, as evidenced by the spray chart above. I'd reckon that 8.4% rate becomes an actual single well over 60% of the time - I think Troy is exploiting the gaps in the infield created by his overall tendency, and is aiming for this outcome. Players that can aim the ball, like Jacob Wilson, possess a trait that can't really be measured by statcast metrics aside from a high BABIP, which is often attributed to good fortune. But what I were to claim that in some cases, a high BABIP is actually a measure of skill? Tommy Troy seems to fall into that Tony Gwynn, Ichiro Suzuki, Luis Arraez archetype - that ain't a bad thing.

Troy is one of those players that excels against the most common pitches in the league:

4-seam, .375 xwOBA, .428 xSLG, 8.11% Whiff

Sinker, .386 xwOBA, .416 xSLG, 3.33% Whiff

Slider, .302 xwOBA

Curve, .493 xwOBA

Those kinds of xwOBAs on over 70% of pitches explains the crazy high OBP marks we see at both AA and AAA, and the impressive xSLG marks on the two most common fastballs suggests their a possible power profile hidden underneath the icy blue power metrics. The ability to drive solely on fastballs is going to lead to a ton of extra base hits at the major league level, and Tommy could wind up becoming a legit doubles monster. And then there's the whiff rates on said fastballs....damn.

As stated earlier, Troy's power profile may be a tad deceptive, perhaps attributed to a huge disparity in his velocity against fastballs vs his velocity vs off speed and breaking stuff. We'll always take velocity vs fastballs - the most common pitch he'll see in the majors!

I think with a kid like Tommy Troy, it might be easy to be turned off by the power metrics and perhaps misjudge his hit tool. There's a possibility other managers see his lack of HRs in the minors and could be willing to sell him at a decent price.

Sam Bachman

Bachman has had one more of the understated, uber-quality seasons you'll see, and that's entirely owed to playing for the Angels. His 2.52 ERA and 0.96 WHIP are really fucking nice, but unfortunately, playing for the Angels doesn't really result in a ton of save or hold opportunities - Bachman only has 6 on the season. But with two holds dating back to May 20th and this kind of quality, I had to at least make another brief mention of the Bach Man. He's throwing his primary slider on 55% usage, and hitters just can't do shit against it. We're talking about a .143 BA, .268 SLG, and 37% whiff rate against. It'll almost make you forget about his 99 mph sinker.

Stephen Kolek, SP, KC

If you visited my Patreon and seen the Weekly Waiver Wire Outline, you were greeted by this:

Then he went out and threw that complete game shut out, nice. I want to show you want I meant by improved shape, with the arrows kind of highlighting the movement change you'll see in the 2026 chart.

The sweeper has much more vertical drop, the slider and cutter have more gloveside break, the 4-seam has a slightly more consistent iVB, and the changeup no longer has a notable vertical drop, making it basically indisguinshable from the sinker minus 6 mph velocity difference. Sometimes you want the changeup to have that drop, notable to compliment a 4-seam. But when you're throwing a sinker, you often want it to basically just be an extremely slow version of said sinker to change up bat speed. When it looks like the same exact pitch, that's when the deception comes into play.

Then you look at the fangraphs 112 location+ projection, and you realize that although the stuff here ins't particularly overwhelming, it can definitely work with proper pitch sequencing and good location. Think Michael McGreevey.

Walbert Urena, SP, LAA

I dropped this kid in one of my dynasty leagues right before his promotion, and I don't like looking at his mug, his statcast, or his production. It all fucking hurts. I had convinced myself that his inflated AAA ERA and BB rate made him a risky proposition, and thus, he became the necessary cut on an extremely talented roster. Shout out to the commissioner, who refused to increase roster sizes! What can I say about Walbert that you don't already see in the statcast? The kid is on his way to being Jose Soriano 2.0, and it's fitting they both play on the same team. Both are power-throwing stupinators with good whiff rates and even better GB rates, except Urena is showcasing elite talent even earlier than Soriano had. The most surprising part? Fangraphs currently has his Location+ higher than his Stuff+, at 106 vs 102. With a fucking 112 pitching+. But I wouldn't let the general grade fool you, as his 78 stuff+ 4-seam is dragging the entire projection down. Turns out, his slider and sinker are both rocking 117 stuff+ grades, making them as elite as they come. And like Kolek above, the sinker and changeup had nearly identical pitch shape with a 6 mph velocity differential. Speaking of the 78 stuff+ 4-seam...it's actually really good. It boasts a .131 xBA, .169 xSLG, and 27.3% hard-hit rate against. The extremely low iVB out of a 42 degree slot is clearly bringing the grade down, but that doesn't matter much on 21% usage as a complimentary pitch to a lethal changeup & sinker combo. It's simply a change of pace pitch designed to get hitters under the ball for weak flyouts - and guess what, that's exactly what it does, with a 47.6% flyball rate vs 33.3% GB rate. It also has a respectable 25% whiff rate against.

Over the sinker, under the 4-seam. And the sweeper and changeup? That's where the 69th percentile whiff rate comes in, with the two pitches inducing 35.7% and 27.6% whiff rates. Walbert has multiple ways of getting outs, and the sky seems to be the limit for the 22 year old rookie.

Ryan Waldschmidt Just add this kid, he's good.

Watching: Cade Cavalli

It's finally beginning to come together, and the BB% is now up to the 65th percentile. He's fixed his main issue.

Zebby Matthews Fangraphs is now a bit more bullish, and the production is there. I'd say add him, the pitch shape is good.

Kody Clemens

Two more hits today and Kody Clemens continues to teeter on the edge of fantasy relevance. It's extremely hard to ignore an 89th percentile average exit velocity and 78th percentile barrel rate in conjunction with a 48th percentile whiff rate. There should be more dingers on the way.

Jacob Young

The bat tracking data and metrics have finally begun to show up as Young doubled his HR total over the last week, smacking 3 dingers to bring up the season total to 6. The blast data said this was in the cards, and hopefully there's more to come as the weather warms up. Don't sleep in this contact/speed/sweet-spot profile.

Trevor McDonald

The last start didn't go so well, and I know a lot of people streamed him...so I can only imagine there's a bit of lingering resentment in the air. But it happens, and it'd be a shame to give up on this guy prematurely. I'm not saying this is a Ryne Nelson situation, as Ryne came into 2026 with a pedigree and expectations, but there may be something here. He doesn't issue walks and he induces tons of weak groundballs, and if you had actually watched his last start, you'd know he got BABIPed to death.

Jake Burger Burger has 9 dingers on the season and has been one of May's better sluggers. I know the 3rd percentile whiff rate and 20th percentile BB rate are going to turn off some managers, but for just how long can you say no to a guy who's probably going to hit 30 dingers? If you're looking for counting stats, Burger might be your savior. I also looked into Burger's swing to start the season vs his swing in May, and I found he's gone from a 7 degree closed stance to a 4 degree closed stance and his attack direction has shifted from 7 degree pull to 9 degree pulled. His bat speed has also increased from 74.2 mph to 75.7 mph, which is a pretty drastic improvement. Up to you to decide if you believe in these improvements!