Waiver Wire Week 10 - Pitchers Paradise
- John Gerbino
- 16 hours ago
- 8 min read
Christian Scott, SP, Mets
The Scott is hot, and we're talking about only a single run given up in his last 10.2 innings! Yesterday's start was as close to being a 'gem' as a start can get, with a 1.80 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 4 K/BB, and 8 Ks over 5.0 innings pitched. A healthier WHIP and a quality start would have taken this outing to the next level, but that just means you have a better chance of snagging him on waivers tonight!
Scott isn't particularly adept at inducing whiffs, but his style of pitching more-so revolves around generating weak contact on an east-west pitching style. And if the weak contact doesn't result in a pop-fly early in the count, he's extremely good at getting the strikeout in 2-strike counts, clearly seen in his elite 85th percentile K rate. Thats owed to one of the nastiest sweepers in all of baseball, currently rocking a 35% whiff rate and 50% K rate - a pitch he only unleashes when it's time to put someone away. Out of a 30 degree arm slot, this thing has an unnatural amount of glove-side movement and really gives teammate Nolan McLean's sweeper a run for its money. He's added 4.4 inches of horizontal break to the pitch, which has taken it from slightly below average (in terms of break) to well above average. It's an entirely different beast this year.
But all of this works thanks to an improved 4-seam fastball, going from 94.2 to 95.4 mph, and going from a 50% to 36% hard-hit rate. Scott's just straight up a better pitcher this year, and on the cusp of being very good.
Tyler Philips, SP, MIA
Philips looked good for the majority of Saturday's start, but began to run out of gas in the 4th inning. This was an unsurprising outcome for a guy still in the process of stretching out.
Nevertheless, a 5 inning start with only a single rough inning is encouraging enough for Philips, who should see himself fully stretched out going into June. Philips has excellent stuff that should play well as a SP and he should be on most fantasy managers' radars. His whiff ability is just a lot better than what we saw yesterday, and his velocity remained high for the majority of the outing, only dipping below 95 mph in the 5th.
Troy Melton, SP, DET
Melton's statcast isn't the prettiest to look at right now, but we have to commend him for finding ways to get outs with some good location and a savvy pitch mix. He's simply avoiding barrels and refusing to issue walks, and although the xBA and xERA tell a story we don't necessarily want to read, Melton is still a high upside pitcher who's shaking off the rust in return from injury. This is, for all intents and purposes, Melton's Spring Training.
I won't be disingenuous - I lean into expected stats quite a bit in my analysis, and I can't simply wave this away out of convenience. But I did watch the two starts, and hitters were having a tough time getting any kind of good launch angle on him - his 33.3% sweet-spot induced would have hitters below the 50th percentile in sweet-spot, and his numbers don't look much different than the Melton we saw in 2025 that boasted a 3.64 xERA and .210 xBA. Let's give him some time to normalize, and focus on the production for now. Who's saying looking at that 7 inning quality start and saying "nah, fuck this guy." Actually, quite a few people, based on the Yahoo comments.
Coleman Crow, SP, MIL
I watched this start, and I can tell you one thing - it's a lot better than it appears on the surface. Crow was cruising through this one, well on his way to a quality start, when suddenly Luis Rengifo decided to botch an easy doubleplay throw in the 4th inning that instead allowed runners on first and third, rather than bringing the inning to two outs with no runners on. This then resulted in three runs (2 unearned) and an extremely pitch-intensive inning for Crow, essentially dashing any hopes of a quality start.
But if you had been watching the start up until this point, you saw a beautiful curveball that had hitters completely flummoxed, alongside masterful control of the strikezone - just look at that BB rate. I'm still in on Crow, as he passes both the eye test and the stuff test, with fangraphs being extremely bullish on him:
Trevor McDonald, SP, SF We already knew McDonald was BABIPed to death last week, so it was completely unsurprising to see him toss a masterful 6.1 inning quality start, racking up 6 Ks with a 3.00 K/BB. At this point, we may as well accept the fact that McDonald is officially one of the best groundball pitchers in the league, while also somehow managing to generate whiffs and strike guys out a respectable clip. It's particularly impressive that he's essentially a two-pitch pitcher to RHH and three-pitch pitcher to LHH, only needing the sinker and slider to take care of righties, while the changeup comes into play against strong-side hitters. The only thing that can seemingly beat McDonald is bad luck or bad defense, and that makes him a pitcher worth rostering - a 91st percentile barrel rate, 96th percentile barrel rate, and 98th percentile GB rate have McDonald knocking on the door of excellence.
Curtis Mead, 1B, WSH
Mead has continued to make his presence felt on some of our bat tracking tests dating all the way back to the April, including this one from the Patreon in May:
We've been making note of guys who were just a sweet-spot increase away being relevant, as sweet-spot is more or less a transient metric (for all but the best hitters in the league) that comes and goes with slumps. His hit-into-play per swing/Blasts per contact rate was looking extremely spicy and is one of our favorite predictive indicators, so it's nice to see Mead finally playing up to what the bat tracking data showed under the hood. His sweet-spot has increased from the 13th percentile on May 6th to the 41st percentile here on May 31st, and with it, his production.
Will Klein, RP, LAD
In nine appearances dating back to the beginning of May, Klein hasn't given up a single earned run. His ERA now sits at a sparkling 1.93, and his WHIP is on the verge of going sub-1.00 at 1.03. Basically, this dude is fucking nails.
One has to wonder if Klein is on the verge of challenging for the highest leverage role out of the bullpen. The stuff is awesome, he limits any kind of quality contact, and he both strikes guys out and induces grounders at elite rates. As it stands, there's really nothing this kid can't do, so when exactly will he earn the closer role?
For now, Klein is relevant only in Holds leagues. But the world series hero is making his presence felt both to Dodgers' management and the Dodgers analytics department.
Spencer Horwitz, 1B, PIT
Horwitz is the king of pulling the ball for dingers, with almost all of them coming entirely on pulled cheapies. That's a skill you have to admire, especially for a guy with sub-30th percentile power metrics across the board, alongside a 13th percentile sweet-spot. For whatever reason, Horwitz has been able to occasionally recognize a pitch and get absolutely all of it at a perfect launch angle, even with his launch angle being consistently dogwater - his .239 xBA kind of reflects that, no? As it stands, this guy is defying conventional analysis and metrics. Nothing here suggests he should be able to do what he's doing, but it can't be denied that he's doing something that defeats the math of it all, and that's perfectly fine. Baseball is cool that way, and I'm on board with Spencer Horwitz and the Pull AIR tendency.
Kai-Tei Weng, SP, HOU Because I was scouting Coleman Crow, I also had the pleasure of watching Kai-Tei Weng, and I came away impressed. His pitch mix is surprisingly advanced, and I can completely understand why he's rocking a 2.57 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. We have a nifty 23 degree arm angle, a 94 mph 4-seam with decent ride, and two awesome breaking balls in the sweeper and curveball. The sweeper here is particularly excellent with a .101 BA against and 32.8% whiff rate, while the complimentary curveball boasts an awesome 45% whiff rate and 46% K rate. Teng actually possesses the type of shape profile I specifically look for with the low slow and "scythe" profile, where you work diagonally across the zone with a high iVB 4-seam, complimentary changeup or sinker, and some awesome vertical drop/glove-side breaking balls. Teng's mix is also notable, as his sweeper is his highest usage pitch on 36% usage - certainly not the most common primary pitch in the league. His secondary 4-seam clocks a respectable .239 xBA, .423 xSLG, and 43% hard-hit rate, but it's found some bad luck with a .300 BA and .600 SLG against.
If the 4-seam starts producing to the expected numbers, we might actually see an extremely fantasy relevant pitcher here. I mean, shit, he has a 2.57 ERA WITH that bad luck. Seems like only a matter of time.
David Sandlin, SP, CHI
Sandlin showed just about everything you'd want to see in a rookie debut, if that wasn't obvious enough with the 1.50 WHIP, .017 WHIP, and 100% quality start rate. We have a nice 6 pitch mix here, with fangraphs grading three of the six as above average after one start.
The high extension, high velocity 4-seam with 16 inches of iVB is an impressive offering and should settle in quite nicely at the major league level, and i'd like to take note of just how consistent the pitch shape was here. That cluster of 4-seams on the pitch shape chart is damnied tight, and that reflects extremely consistent mechanics and release point on the offering.
Behind the 4-seam are the cutter and curveball, Sandlin's next-highest-usage pitches at 29.5% and 11.5%, and both perfectly compliment the aforementioned fastball with fantastic diagonal/arm-side play that will really keep hitters off balance with solid velocity differentials at different eye-levels. After dominating AAA, and then having an equally dominant major league debut, i'm excited to watch more David Sandlin.
Vaughn Grissom, INF, LAA
Grissom is finding himself in that Curtis Mead territory, where he's crushing bat tracking data sets on the Patreon and putting up lots of solid metrics, minus the all-important sweet-spot rate. But it's slowly on the climb, and over the last week, Grissom's posted a .292 BA and .857 OPS. With elite contact rates and a surprisingly strong 78th percentile average exit velocity, it's hard not to like Grissom and his multi-position eligibility.
Jacob Young, OF, WSH
To me, Jacob Young SHOULD be this year's 2025 Jacob Wilson, and hopefully the production continues to amass for someone with a beautiful statcast. His .313 BA and .889 OPS over the last week should signify good things to come, and how could they not? A nice sweet-spot combined with elite contact rates, a 96th percentile squared-up rate, and a surprisingly decent 42nd percentile exit velocity should almost certainly result in good outcomes. Especially when you have a 96th percentile spring speed. He's also doing well in a lot of bat tracking sets, with a surprisingly high blast per contact rate.
Expect lots of extra-base hits from Young this Summer.
Nathaniel Lowe, 1B, CIN
What's there really to say? Like teammate JJ Bleday, Nathaniel Lowe continues to slay. And the metrics? They continue to play.
But for real - this guy is so good, that they're playing Sal Stewart at 3B more often than ever. You know you're $ when the lineup is constructed to accomodate you.
Shane Baz, SP, BAL
Three straight quality starts have Baz trending upward, even in spite of a really ugly statcast. I don't think anyone here really thinks Baz is as bad as he's pitched, so the question is, do you believe in the trend? Personally, I don't have strong opinions one way or another here. Maybe that says everything?
River Ryan, SP, LA
If you've been with me all year, you remember I declared River Ryan the #1 NA stash at the beginning of the season. That then shifted to Sam Antonacci as River Ryan was taken out of action by an injury. Ryan's now back in action, and completely dominating. Throw him in your NA slot, his return approaches.
