Waiver Wire Week 9 - Believe In The Heart Of The Plate!

Follow me on Bluesky at Gerbilsports.

Some of you may have noticed that I've really leaned into using prospectsavant, a new project that funnels minor league stats into the hands of us plebs, all at absolutely no cost (though you should donate if you're not broke like me!). Not only does it help us measure prospects before they reach the bigs, but also has become a surprisingly potent tool for measuring rehab outings and whether or not players are ready to make MLB contributions coming off injury. It's going to be a staple for years to come. One aspect of prospectsavant i've really come to enjoy is the inclusion of zone swing and zone contact percentile bars, something that isn't immediately apparent when looking at MLB's statcast bars. So I've decided to look further under the hood of our MLB guys. Not only are we looking at the ol' faithful statcast and bat tracking tools, but we're now going to measure contact through the zone at a more precise level. Hope you all enjoy, and I apologize for the Monday release instead of the standard Sunday release. My back's really hurting this week and life has seemed bleaker than usual, and no good writing or analysis can come of that. Kody Clemens One of the more unexpected breakouts you'll see this year, the 29 year old son of Roger Clemens (the more you know!) has begun to channel his genetic juice and thus has become an entirely new hitter in 2025. When you see this kind of improvement, the first question one may ask is "how sustainable is this?" And when I ask that question, the first metric I tend to look at is bat speed; a large bat speed increase is a tell-tale sign of a swing change, and a swing change can ultimately mean sustainability. Well, it turns out his bat speed has jumped from the 40th percentile in 2024 to the 60th percentile in 2025. Props to whoever worked with this kid in the offseason, because man is he smacking the ball around. Whether it's the 99th percentile Hard-Hit % or the 95th percentile Barrel %, everything about this statcast screams "add now." Something that makes Clemens much more intriguing than, say, Will Benson, is that his whiff and chase rates are actually extremely solid for a guy with this power profile. He's basically Kyle Stowers but with way better contact and discipline skills. And the best part? He has eligibility at three positions - 1B, 2B, and 3B. I hate to throw the term league-winner around lightly, but Clemens is displaying that kind of ability in the early going of the season and there's too much upside here to ignore.

Slightly above average swing % at the heart of the plate and slightly above chase/waste percentages. Kody is seeing the ball. His +5 runs at the heart of plate are fantastic - he's punishing meatballs big time.

Brett Baty Brett Bat Speed Baty may have started the season ice cold, but things are really beginning to come together for the young infielder. If you can't manage to snag Clemens, Baty is a pretty good consolation prize. He's barreling the ball at an elite rate with nice exit velo and hard-hit percentages, and 20 HRs isn't out of the question. And doing it in the Mets lineup will have him racking up counting stats, or at least one would hope. But like all hitters with fantastic power metrics and troubling contact metrics - be cautious of your ratios. I'm not a huge fan of his whiff, chase, and squared-up percentages - and i've come to view a low squared-up % with a high average exit velocity as a red flag - but there's enough upside here, and hope for improvements in the bat-t0-ball skill department, to take a flyer on Baty.

The chase and waste here is rather concerning. These are slump factors. He's punishing meatballs, though.

Connor Norby Norby may have an ice-blue statcast, but don't let that be the ultimate deciding factor on whether or not you pick this kid up. When Norby makes contact, he finds the sweet spot of the bat at an elite 92nd percentile rate. Paired with his blazing speed and an above-average barrel %, Norby is making the most of a profile with shortcomings across the board. He's one of those hitters where the statcast doesn't tell the entire story, nor is he doomed to a perpetually icy statcast - Norby is still 24 and improving at the plate. Also of note is how often Norby swings at pitches in the heart of the zone, which is something he excelled at in 2024 at AAA. We can see that although Norby has a chase issue that sees him swinging at 31% of pitches outside the zone, Norby also swings at 85% of pitches at the heart of the zone and 63% of pitches in the shadow of the zone, both above league average. And when it comes to chasing the ball, not all is lost, as Norby has the speed to turn a lot of poor contact on balls outside the zone into tough singles. He may be chasing, but he's surprisingly disciplined when it comes to wasting - Norby has swung at 0% of pitches in the retched wasteland. There's more here than meets the eye.

Eric Wagaman

Wags has been a crush of mine in terms of having a sexy statcast, but the production has really stalled. Why is a guy with a .283 xBA and .469 xSLG slashing .254 with a .698 OPS? Wags is clearly making solid contact with baseballs, and on the surface, isn't chasing or whiffing at absurdly low rates, so what could be the cause? Then we look at his plate discipline and metrics. Wags is swinging at pitches over the heart of the plate at a slightly below league average rate, and doing absolutely nothing with them. His -3 run value at pitches dead center has him really struggling to produce, because these are pitches he should be doing the most with from a physics perspective. Wags is only getting run value at pitches outside the zone, and then extremely outside - this guy is a bad ball hitter, and that's it. Any pitcher that can locate the strike zone currently has Wags number, and believe it or not, most pitchers can throw down the middle. To expand on the issue here - Wags has a respectable 55th percentile chase rate, and you'd normally think this was a good thing. But when he's only good on pitches he chases outside the zone, well, it's the exact opposite. Now all of this makes it sound like I'm low on Wags, but we don't have to necessarily look at this as a glass half empty situation. What are the odds that a guy like Wagaman, a 27 year old professional baseball player with solid bat speed and power, continues to suck at hitting pitches down the middle? And when he does start hitting those pitches, on top of excelling at pitches outside the zone, what exactly is his ceiling? This guy has the potential to be not just good, but great. Keep an eye on him.

Slade Cecconi Once again, Cecconi is an easy add in deeper leagues. He continues to show exemplary whiff stuff on top of a solid GB%, and I will continue to recommend him after dominating the Tigers. His curveball is one of the best in the game right now, and compliments a good slider and good-enough fastball. Cecconi's new arm slot is doing wonders for his stuff and it seems like the Guardians may have found a rotation piece for years to come. Yes, the expected numbers are a bit worrisome due to his barrel issues, but we can't ingore his ability to get outs.

Mike Soroka After posting his first quality start of the 2025 season, Soroka remains an easy recommendation in deeper leagues. Despite a poor whiff rate, Soroka has managed to throw to a respectable 58th percentile K rate, all thanks to a tremendous slurveball that looks like one of the better ones in the sport, much like Cecconi's curveball. The slurve currently boasts a sexy .183 xBA to go with a cute 32.5% K rate. Soroka's also throwing a more understated pitch, a changeup, at a 38% K rate despite only an 8% whiff rate. It's clearly fooling batters late in counts, even if it seems to be a liability early in counts. And that's fine, because he's still refining his pitch mix in the early goings of the season. I will say, though, that it's a bit worrisome that three of his 4 pitches come in at an xBA over .300, BUT, that slurve really is good enough to carry him if hitters are willing to sit on his other pitches. Soroka's currently throwing the slurve 37% of the time and we shouldn't expect to see that number decrease anytime soon. In his most recent start, Soroka actually increased his sinker usage (his other positive run value pitch despite the xBA), and the resulting groundballs helped him throw his first QS of the season. With the sinker currently being a pitch that's propelled Soroka to an elite 88th percentile groundball rate and the defense behind him handling those balls, we could expect higher usage leading Soroka deeper into games. In an ideal world, Soroka throws the 4-seam a bit less and the sinker/slurve a bit more.

Hunter Dobbins Another pitcher making a repeat appearance on the blog, Dobbins has been nothing short of excellent as a rookie trying to soldify his spot in the Sox rotation. Dobbins' ability to completely avoid walking batters is wildly impressive for a rookie, and his chase % reflects a beautiful ability to deceive batters. This is the type of foundation aces are built on, and is reminiscent of the pitching philosophy we've see out of SEA over the past 5 years. Dobbins hasn't even scratched the surface of his potential, which makes him more even compelling. His whiff inducing curveball currently has a .368 BA against, despite the xBA being a respectable .230. His splitter and sweeper are both nearly un-hittable coming in a .125 BA against each, yet he only throws each 10% of the time. There's a lot of room for growth with his pitch mix, on top of him just straight up improving his stuff. In his two most recent starts, we've seen Dobbins throw the slider as his primary pitch, surpassing his 4-seam in usage, and the results have been mixed. In his most recent outing, Dobbins racked up an impressive 7 Ks with a 7.00 K/BB, but only lasted 4 innings to the tune of a 9.00 ERA. Once he finds the right pitch mix, which will hopefully include increased sweeper and splitter usage, Dobbins could be an absolute beast.

Chase Meidroth The OBP god himself, Meidroth has really found his groove at the highest level and looks to be a stalwart at the top of the CWS rotation for however long he plays there. His unexpected ability to swipe bags has exponentially increased his value to the point of relevance in almost all fantasy formats. The key to Meidroth's success is his wildly unique profile - this man takes pitches to an extreme degree. Meidroth falls well under the MLB swing average across the spectrum, and the majority of his run value comes from punishing bad location by refusing to chase and leveraging counts. The best way to approach Meidroth is to simply fill the zone, but even then, he excels at making contact when he does decide to finally swing, and that's only when he's absolutely forced to do so in a pitchers' count. Think of a QB who manages the game and looks to checkdown as the first read - Meidroth is ultimately looking to work the count and take a walk, with hitting the ball as a resort. He's just a fun player to watch, but very annoying to pitch to.

Bro doesn't like to swing the bat, yet has a .305 BA. Picky eater.

Spencer Horwitz

Horwitz' metrics are beginning to match up to exactly the profile we were expecting to see, and it's a good one. Once again, I highly recommend Horwitz as a guy who will heal ratios and has the upside to become a good power hitter. His current .226 BA falls well behind his .291 xBA and it's only a matter of time before the math works itself out. His sweet-spot and hard-hit rates are exemplary, and compiment his elite discipline perfectly. Looking at his swing-take metrics, we see that Horwitz is swinging at pitches over the heart of the plate at an excellent 76% rate, but not yet generating the run value expected due to BABIP - thus the discrepancy between his expected numbers and actual production. Don't sleep on this guy, there's something good cooking here.

Addison Barger

Barger remains an easy add despite hitting a bit of a slump over the last few days, and as a I type this, is 2/4 on the day. Barger is taking a healthy amount of swings at pitches over the heart of the plate, and is finally starting to produce on those pitches. His current -5 run value on those pitches, .240 BA, and .701 OPS are all reflections of his early season struggles which are quickly being tossed aside. With 3B and OF elgibility, Barger is a great fantasy asset with a high ceiling. Let his elite bat speed and strength carry you through the sweltering summer heat.

EDITS: I also wanted to include Dingler, but forgot. Please see what I wrote about him a few weeks ago. He's only gotten better and is totally worth an add! Dillon Dingler is becoming the player I hoped Patrick Bailey would be, and in his rookie season no less. Dingler was noted for his hitting potential throughout the minors, but my god has his defense been absolutely fucking cracked for a rookie. 98th percentile blocks above average? 100th percentile framing? 84th percentile caught stealing? Dingler is the best defensive catcher in baseball, as a rookie. And then we get to his hitting profile which is beginning to emerge in a way that I don't think anyone expected this early in his career. A 90th percentile Sweet-Spot% and 72nd percentile Hard-Hit% have Dingler resting at a .301 BA and .804 OPS, not too far from his expected numbers. He also possesses solid splits with an .893 OPS against LHP and a 308 AVG and .764 OPS against RHP. He's a safe start regardless of who is on the mound and is a large contributor to the Tigers' success.

PADDACK IS STILL AN ADD, I just didn't include him a 3rd week in a row. He's cooking right now. Watching: Durbin, Vierling