A Lack of Offensive Line Talent is Plaguing the NFL, and GMs need to Adjust.

In an NFL landscape where Quarterbacks are incredibly valuable and serious injuries seemingly happen on a per-game basis, you'd think GMs around the league would be doing everything within their power, and budget, to ensure their quarterbacks are protected. The less a quarterback is hit, the greater the probability a team isn't completely ruined. Just ask the 49ers who were eliminated from Super Bowl contention simply by not having a quarterback against the Eagles. It just seems like common sense to protect your investments. So why, exactly, do so many teams just have terrible offensive lines? Why are we watching Joe Burrow look like an absolutely awful quarterback due to constant pressure (especially whilst nursing an injury)? Why are we watching Daniel Jones get clobbered by unblocked rushers on a seemingly every-play-basis? I've come to the conclusion that there's simply not enough talent to go around the league. As a Giants fan, I've had the pleasure of watching the Giants draft several guys with extremely promising profiles: Ereck Flowers, Will Hernandez, Shane Lemieux, and now Evan Neal. We're looking at guys who have had PFF grades in the 30s, 40s, and 50s for most of their careers. Even this year, the Giants don't have a player aside from Andrew Thomas with a grade above 60. It may be the worst O-line ever assembled, and it has made the Giants the pitiable little creature in the world of social media. Point and laugh at the Giants. Feel bad for the Giants. Be perplexed by the Giants. It's all viable. But this got me thinking. If the Giants have this amalgamation of the worst possible talent on their offensive line, surely other teams must be better off - there has to be an excessive amount of talent to go around if an entire NFL team has the worst of the worst, right? Surely most situations are better? It turns out, there are a lot of awful offensive lines. Let's get back to Joe Burrow and the Bengals' O-line:

Orlando Brown Jr: 57.1 PFF grade Cordell Volson: 38.4 Ted Karras: 60.7 Jonah Williams: 61.5 Alex Cappa: 55.5 Yikes. The Giants have a terrible line. The Bengals have a very bad line. How do two rosters have an entire offensive line grading out well below 60? And in the Giants case, 50? Well, we can get back to that in a second. Let's look at possibly the best line in football, the Eagles'.

Jordan Mailata: 81.3 Landon Dickerson: 67.7 Jason Kelce: 71.4 Cam Jurgens: 65.2 Lane Johnson: 79.3 Clearly, this line has a much higher average grade, but even then, it doesn't seem particularly excellent. A 72.98 grade seems remarkably average, but in the context of an offensive line working as a cohesive unit, it may as well be a 90+ grade when compared to the Giants or Bengals. Now, let's take a look at a middling team, the Bucs. Tristan Wirfs: 83.0 Matt Feiler: 55.3 Robert Hainsey: 56.7 Cody Mauch: 47.1 Luke Goedke: 70.0 While not exceptionally talented, sporting an average rating of 62.42, the Bucs line is providing enough for Baker Mayfield to be having a renaissance season. I'm starting to get an idea of what is competent enough for a QB to be able to work: a 60+ grade. Linemen with 80-90 grades are exceptionally rare in the current landscape and can drastically bring a line's average grade up, but i'm starting to pose a question: is it worth it? Should teams be targeting exceptional O-line talent for large amounts of money, or should they be targeting competent players with 60-70 PFF grades that demand a fraction of the cost? When that one amazing player goes down with injury, like Andrew Thomas on the Giants, what happens to the rest? Well, we've seen what happens and it's bad. Andrew Thomas recently signed a contract extension: $117 million over the next five years. For that same amount of money, you could sign several competent offensive linemen. The advantage of having someone as good as Andrew Thomas is the ability to nullify an exemplary rusher like Joey Bosa or Micah Parsons, but does that provide enough value on a play-by-play basis if the rest of your line is vulnerable? And when injury inevitably strikes, and you lack the depth to compensate, what do you do? Well, you take losses. Bad losses. As a GM, my strategy would be to target any and every decent Offensive lineman in free agency. 60 PFF grade? You're hired. It feels like there needs to be an adjustment to PFF grades for linemen. A 60 grade for a CB is not the same as a 60 grade for an Offensive Lineman. One provides immensely more value. Because a line functions as a fluid, cohesive group, giving up on signing one ridiculously expensive, talented player seems like the right decision. Just horde the decent players so you don't wind up with guys that average 30s and 40s PFF grades and are literal turnstiles. So what about drafting? I think teams should be realizing that drafting project players with extreme measurables is a terrible idea for the offensive line. So many GMs see big, fast, athletic linemen and think they have the coaches to turn them into dominant forces. This is hubris. Most organizations don't have the ability to do this, and even if they do, most of the time these players only wind up becoming decent by the end of their rookie deal and wind up signing somewhere else. I've always been of the opinion that technique and awareness accounts for 80% of blocking performance and physical ability 20%. Give me a guy that can instantly pick up the correct block, move his feet properly, always has his hands in the right spot, and easily gets into positions of leverage. Why do so many teams insist on drafting guys who are strong, but create no leverage against their opponent due to awful technique? It's basic physics. And when someone like Micah Parsons explodes off the line of scrimmage, and a lineman has a few milliseconds to determine the proper course of action, technique always prevails over being athletic. Sure, someone like Andrew Thomas who is both cerebral and physically dominant can nullify a player like that most of the time, but a cerebral player can at least successfully block some of the time. An athletic turnstile like Evan Neal, whose brain simply can't comprehend what is happening enough quickly enough, will lose almost 100% of the time. And beyond this, pass rushers in the NFL are getting faster and stronger, much like every other position in the NFL. The focus shouldn't be on finding guys who maybe have the upside to possibly nullify these players, but to find guys who can mitigate the damage they inflict. GMs need to stop taking gambles in the draft on "Hogmollies" and spending big on one free agent. Draft the safe guy. Sign several guys that are competent. Stop fucking around and finding out, because your quarterback's career is on the line when your gamble fails. The next time you have the choice between three linemen with a 60+ grade or one with an 85+, just sign the three and enjoy the stability that comes with it.