Midweek Musings - Rice Is On The Menu

Kyle Karros The Rockies have been sneaky with these promotions down the stretch, and although all of the focus has been turned towards Mr. Warming Bernabel, I'd argue Karros is the guy to be watching right now. At 6'5 and only age 23, Karros has raced through the Rockies system this year, dominating along the way: AA: 234 PAs, .294 BA, .861 OPS AAA: 68 PAs, .306 BA, .828 OPS Pretty impressive for the kid, who also hit .311 with an .875 OPS at high A in 2024. Now Karros has made it to The Show, and he hasn't even slowed down a bit, slashing .333 with an .893 OPS across 24 PAs. His bat-to-ball and discipline metrics have been elite, and his hard-hit rate also suggests there's some power to tap into here. His excellent AAA zone-contact, whiff, and swing rates have carried over to the MLB level without any issue.

His favorite number is clearly 17.6

Karros currently has a...lol....17.6% Pull Air, 17.6% Straight Air, and 17.6% Oppo Air%. I don't know man, don't ask me how this happens. Grab this 6'5 hunk of weirdness in dynasty leagues, there's something here. I feel it!

His 99th percentile Squared-Up really stands out alongside some awesome Chase, Whiff, and BB rates.

Strong profile across the board, with some real power potential with that 6'5 as he enters his mid twenties. Think Dylan Beavers. https://prospectsavant.com/player/691720

Ben Rice The time has arrived - Ben Rice will officially see everyday at-bats, thanks to an unfortunate Paul Goldschmidt injury. PSA: We do not condone excitement over injury here at Gerbil Sports.... But damn, look at that fucking statcast... Somehow, it's only gotten better over the last few weeks, with his squared-up and chase rates steadily climbing towards the 90th + percentiles. No longer will too many days off throwing off his rhythm be an excuse for Ben Rice under-peforming his expected numbers - he is officially the Yankees middle-of-the-order bat, and is expected to produce behind Stanton and Judge for a team that desperately needs some wins. Will you be the Ben Rice owner, when Ben Rice goes on a league-winning tear? When he hits 10 HRs over the next two weeks? For a more in depeth look at changes Rice has made to his hitting approach, check out this piece from a few weeks ago.

This is still the #1 statcast in baseball.

Owen Caissie

You may remember, but probably don't, when I first mentioned Owen Caissie. This was a fun piece to look back on, as a lot of the guys I was enthusiastic about didn't quite make their mark in the MLB this year, while Addison Barger, who I didn't exactly proclaim enthusiasm for, has gone on to be a GerbilSports MVP candidate. And at the time, I was clearly not enthusiastic about Caissie. His 12th percentile whiff rate, paired up with a 13th percentile zone contact rate, had me worried this guy wouldn't be able to make quality contact at the MLB level. Since then, things have changed rather significantly. All of his power metrics have remained absolutely elite, alebit slightly lower, but oh boy have his bat-to-ball skills improved: Zone Swing: 61st to 71st percentile Zone Contact: 13th to 43rd percentile Whiff: 12th to 44th percentile Chase: 15th to 68th percentile. A guy I once dismissed as another Joey Gallo in the making has suddenly become an extremely well-rounded bat for the power he possesses, and it really just doesn't get much better than this coming out of AAA. Caissie has done literally everything he was supposed to do during the developmental process, and now it's time to see those results play out.

https://prospectsavant.com/player/683357

Yoendrys Gomez

Over in the GerbilSports Patreon discord, we were shooting the shit, discussing some minor-league prospects, when one of our members enthusiastically jumped in to break the news that Yoendrys Gomez was taking the mound for the White Sox. Shout out to my boy Massimo. We immediately started to do some digging into how he had been performing at the minor league level, and as you can clearly see below, he's been completely lights out compared to how poor he looked for the Dodgers earlier in the year, before being DFA'd. The Sauron-Red statcast and overall PS Score of 91.35 only reflects what his stuff ratings tell us - this guy is looking more like his 2023-self, when fangraphs projected him a 115 pitching+ grade at the MLB level. Every pitch in his aresenal is graded over 100 with some beautiful xBA and Whiff rates, but we'll focus on his top four by usage: 105 grade 4-seam, .202 xBA, 24.39% whiff 108 grade sweeper, .133 xBA, 53.97% whiff (damn) 103 grade cutter, .280 xBA, 32.26% whiff (maybe his weakest pitch) 110 grade curve, .210 xBA, 42.86% whiff Throwing that 4-seam 43.6% of the time with this kind of value is mightily impressive, and where his 4-seam only averaged 93.4 mph in the MLB earlier this year, it had been averaging 94.3 mph at AAA - one mph is quite the difference, when you're touching 96 at the top end and 93 at the low end, as opposed to 95 top and 92 low. But beyond the fastball, the curveball absolutely decimated in the outing. Check out his start:

17 Cuveballs, .000 xBA, 57.1% Whiff, 40% PutAway. Ridiculous

87th percentile K rate, while completely limiting hard contact. Filthy.

That 80 mph curve is something else. https://prospectsavant.com/player/672782

Joey Ortiz I'm not a Joey Ortiz fan. I don't like what I've seen from him over the years, and haven't anticpated him being very good at any point this year. But once again, Joey Ortiz goes on one of his little hot stretches, and I have to do my due dilligence - has this guy made any adjustments that could make this success sustainable, or was he just thrown in the microwave for a bit?

Pre All-Star Break

Post All-Star Break

So, it turns out that at least this time, Joey Ortiz has made an adjustment to his stance - he now finds himself at a 4 degree open stance angle, as opposed to 12 degrees open going back to not only before the all-star break, but even last year. This is a new adjustment for Ortiz in the early stages of his career, and because of this, we have to pay a bit of attention - his new intercept point now has him going 3 degrees oppo, as opposed to 2 degrees pull. Let's see how a larger sample size plays out before we draw conclusions. I will admit, though, that after looking over his game logs, his xBAs against offspeed pitches (the pitches he's struggled with in 2025) in individual games since the adjustment are encouraging.

Graham Pauley

Just a guy, or something more? Looking AAA, Pauley had some nice bat-to-ball skills, capped off with a 91st percentile zone-swing % that paired rather nicely with a 77th percentile zone-contact %. He almost never strikes out at only 11% of the time, and his whiff rate clocks in at a nice 69th percentile mark. His power metrics are all slightly-below-middling, but one "power" metric stands out above the standard hard-hit and exit velo numbers - his Pull Air %. This dude was rocking an 87th percentile Pull Air % at AAA, and it's playing up really well at the MLB level:

Check out those pulled HR balls - imagine this guy in Yankee Stadium lol.

His 34.5% pulled is getting him some real nice RF HRs, and his overall Air rate has him spraying doubles all over the field. On the surface, he wouldn't appear to be any kind of power hitter, but with increased fastball velocities at the MLB level doing their part, and some nice air rates, he has just enough juice to get the ball into the stands when he pulls. He now has 3 HRs and a .253 BA against fastballs. The crazy part is, I actually expect his contact rates to improve going forward.

https://prospectsavant.com/player/688363

Bryce Teodosio

Armed with only speed and a vision, Teodosio has, somehow, defied all odds and continued to hit over .300 despite having some of the worst statcast metrics you'll ever see. His hitting ability at AAA has carried over at a 1:1 ratio from AAA (where his metrics also failed to capture his ability to hit), because this guy just has that xDAWG that defies anything statcast can measure.

Teodosio just knows how to put the ball in play deep in counts, and I really, truly believe he's a savant of some sort, that knows how to place the ball exactly where he wants it. He then uses fuck-you speed to beat out would-be groundouts. When I compared him to Chandler Simpson in that reddit post, I was doing him a disservice - Chandler Simpson should be compared to Bryce Teodosio, this generation's Ichiro Suzuki.

Daylen Lile

You already know I'm a Daylen Lile stan, and Lile has only continued to impress over the last week with a .341 BA and .835 OPS. Hiding behind a modest .262 BA and less-than-impressive .697 OPS lies a metric powerhouse just waiting to show the baseball world that he's going to be one of the top outfielders in the game.

You may be thinking "man, Gerbil, you're crazy on this one." Maybe. But at age 22, I see the foundation of a future star - extremely good speed (90th percentile), some elite bat-to-ball skills, and awesome launch angles. There's a ton to build on for the kid, and with a bit more muscle and seasoning, good things are around the corner.

85th percentile whiff, 80th percentile squared-up, 99th percentile sweet-spot. Some good contact for Lile.

Jacob Lopez

May he never give up another run.

Hot Guys:

Miguel Andujar is crushing baseballs and carrying the Reds offense. I heard they may be adding Clint Frazier next.

Blaze Alexander is playing some good ball after posting some really nice AAA metrics leading up to the promotion. It could be real, even as he outperforms his expected MLB numbers, based on what he did at AAA.

Masataka Yoshida has hit .368 with a 1.049 OPS over the last week, to go along with 7 RBIs. That's a lot of RBIs for anyone not named Marsee.

Follow me on Bluesky at GerbilSports, and join us on our Patreon discord for some good baseball talk.