Dynasty Football - Coker Has The Vision

Hey there, and welcome to the blog. This will be my first fantasy football post of the year, as I normally stick to baseball. Hope it helps.

Jalen Coker

"Probably the best route runner in this class." - Steve Smith, 2024

High praise for a kid that only the most knowledgable of football fans had even heard of going into the 2024 draft, eh? It's becoming more and more common that extremely skillful, athletic talents are falling through the cracks all across the country - and I'm not just talking about the transition from NCAA to the NFL.

As a UCF fan myself, I can anecdotally (scientific, I know) attest to the fact that our powerhouse teams over the past decade have been comprised of uber-athletic local talent, often 2-star and 3-star recruits being, that have been completely overlooked by larger schools. Turns out, Coker was so irrelevant in high school, he didn't even have a grade! So when Coker absolutely dominated for FCS school Holy Cross in 2023, to the tune of 1040 yards and an absurd 15 TDs, with only two drops on the entirety of the season due to extremely strong hands - yeah, we knew something was cooking here. It often gets played up in fantasy circles about level of competition, and how these guys have inflated stats if they're not in the SEC or Big Ten - I don't subscribe to this idea in the slightest. Humans develop substantially in their late teens and early 20s, and a five-star recruit in high school has often simply developed a bit quicker than the three star recruit - but this says nothing of their overall ceiling as they approach the age where the NFL begins to take notice, nor does it indicate whether or not they will better absorb advanced playbooks and schemes as they progress through their football careers. And that's before mentioning that some kids just don't have the resources available to them to wind up in a position to be playing for a top-tier high school, you know, the types of schools that scouts hyperfocus on. There's a ton of variables when it comes to recruitment and development, and frankly, we should care less.   Turn on that film, use your own eyes, and make your own determination - and in Coker's case, the film paints a clear picture, alongside some great metrics. When it comes to Coker, the narrative often revolves around this idea of a lack of athleticism. I disagree, and so do measurements.

There's nothing un-athletic about a 42.5 inch vertical, 10.8 foot broad jump, and 1.52 second ten yard split. These three measurements paint the picture of an extremely explosive, fast-twitch wide receiver who can most certainly high-point a football. And aside from these elite measurements, are any of the measurements actually lacking aside from the 40 yard dash? Listed as 6'1 at the combine, and as 6'3 by ESPN, Coker has a solid build, and is clearly filled out with muscle as opposed to being thin and lanky.

But height isn't the end-all for WR size, nor weight - what about his 32.875 inch arm length? Arm length is often overlooked for WRs, which to me, is baffling - it may be more important than height itself. 2023 WRs and their arm length:

JSN - 30.00 Quentin Johnston - 33.6

Zay Flowers - 29.25

Jordan Addison - 30.375 Rashee Rice - 32.75

Puka Nacua - 32.00 Marvin Mims - 31.6 Tank Dell - 30.5

Josh Downs - 30.375 2024 WRs and their arm length: Coker - 32.875

Rome Odunze - 32.25 Xavier Worthy - 31.125 Brian Thomas - 32.75 Nabers and Harrison JR - N/A

Turns out Jalen Coker has elite arm length compared to other then-relevant or now-relevant wide receivers in the most recent classes, with only the 6'3 Quentin Johnston beating him out, a guy that found himself drafted on measurables, yet didn't have half the route running ability of Coker. Coker's 4.57 is a bit on the slower side, we'll admit, but I would say it's acceptable for his size - 4.57 is slow in 2025, but hey, Puka ran a 4.56. Game speed wins out, which will one day bring us to Efton Chism - but that's later. And beyond that, I find the 10 yard split to be much more important when measuring the ability of a WR to get open, and as we mentioned, Coker dominated that measurement - your initial burst and acceleration off a change of direction comes down to the 10 yard split more than the 40 yard dash. To recap: Fantastic route runner Good size Elite explosiveness Above-average speed Enormous catch radius Strong hands And of course, how can we ignore his 2024 production?

Coker only began to receive noteworthy snaps in week 5, and by season's end, finished with 478 yards and 2 TDS in only 11 games played, while never getting signicant reps with the first team offense leading up to that point - impressive for a rookie, no? Had he not been injured from weeks 12 to 14, missing three contests, we may be looking at a 600 yard, 3+TD season for a guy that was largely considered an afterthought for this offense due to his UDFA status. That's the kind of production you expect from a 2nd or 3rd round pick, not an un-drafted free agent out of Holy Cross. Everything he did throughout his college career translated to the NFL seamlessly, and at this point, we have to accept Coker is simply a baller that found himself at a small school by circumstance.

Looking deeper into Coker's 24 campaign, there's a few metrics to love, including his 14.94 yards per reception, good for 37th in the entire league - not bad for a rookie, yeah? A few other notes:

14.42 % target share, 2nd on team.

45.89 EPA, 2nd on team. 1st In YAC On Panthers, Details:

Thielen: 48 receptions, 152 YAC Legette: 49 receptions, 112 YAC (yikes) Coker: 32 receptions, 171 YAC (nice)

On signifcantly less receptions, and routes run, Coker finished #1 in YAC on the Panthers squad. It comes out to a super sexy 5.34 YAC per reception. I decided to look into this, to compare to some other rookie WRs in 2024: Xavier Worthy - 6.89 YAC per reception Brian Thomas - 6.45

Rome Odunze - 4.55

Malik Nabers - 4.23 Marvin Harrison Jr. - 2.38 (ouch)

That 5.34 yards after concact per reception is looking pretty good for Coker, and it makes sense - he has nice footwork, good size, and excellent burst. But much more nuanced is his ability to come back to the ball and high point it, creating space during the catch, which allows him to turn up field with a bit of room to work. But wait, there's more! Jalen Coker excelled in a particular stat that may fly under the radar, but has a ton of value - he ranked #13 in the NFL for Target Premium! This stat measures the EPA (expected points added) of each and every target a WR receives, and compares that to the average receiver's target worth. What this means, simply, is that Jalen Coker is getting targets in the most high-leverage situations you can think of - 3rd down conversions, red zone targets, good field position. These have a higher value than targets in early downs, poor field position, etc. It seems like Coker's 15 TDs in 2023 were no fluke - this guy is as reliable as they come, or at least quarterbacks believe so. I would say this also heavily coincides with his 108.8 QB rating per target, good for #27 in the league, and 2.01 fantasy points per target, good for #28 in the league. Then we have another interesting stat, being fantasy points per target vs man, and vs zone Jalen Coker - 1.57 vs man. 2.79 vs zone. Marvin Harrison Jr - 1.69 vs man, 1.70 vs zone Malik Nabers - 1.35 vs man, 1.92 vs zone Rome Odunze - 1.06 vs man, 1.67 vs zone Brian Thomas - 1.71 vs man, 2.35 vs zone

Xavier Worthy - 1.56 vs man, 1.66 vs zone

Jalen Coker, by far, was the strongest against zone coverage of the early-round 2024 rookies, and in fact, one of the strongest in the NFL. I began a search to find elite receivers who actually surpassed Coker's fantasy points per target vs zone coverage. Here's the scoop: AJ Brown - 2.11 vs zone Puka Nacua - 1.78 vs zone Nico Collins - 1.96 vs zone CeeDee Lamb - 1.26 vs zone Ja'Marr Chase - 2.21 It was at this point I started to realize something - Jalen Coker is really fucking good at finding the softest spots imaginable in zone coverage, and there's an aspect to his game that can't quite be measured at the combine. Simply put - Jalen Coker has The Vision. Before his preseason showing yesterday where he snagged a nice, dexterous toe-tapping touchdown, there was some discussion that Coker may be on a roster bubble of some sort. That's nonsense. Coker comes into 2025 as a clear #2, with the juice to challenge Tetairoa in every facet of the game. Follow me on bluesky at GerbilSports