Gerbil's Waiver Wire, Week 1 - Nasty Relievers Have Appeared!

Thanks for joining me in 2026! I spent the whole day yesterday trifling through data to find some of the deeper names in the league right now, and not the Chase DeLauters of the world (who was drafted in most leagues). This has been copied over from yesterday's Patreon post, so some data points may be from before yesterday's slate of games. Feel free to come check it out if you want daily analysis (most days) and an earlier weekly waiver wire read. Cheers!

Randy Vasquez, SP - SD

Yep, that Randy Vasquez - for the last two years, you've streamed this guy out of sheer desperation. You'd cross your fingers, close your eyes, and hope to any higher-beings that might be listening, "please let Randy have his stuff today." You're not asking for world peace, or $1,000,000 - you're just asking for a quality start in fantasy baseball, right? So surely, some powerful being could oblige?

Sometimes it would happen, but most times, it would not. He just didn't have the juice, there was nothing to tap into. But now it's 2026, and Randy Vasquez clearly put in the work over offseason. He's no longer the dude throwing 93 mph 4-seam fastballs with junky off speed and breaking stuff. Nah, this guy is now throwing 95 mph 4-seams, pumping it up to 97 mph when he's trying to wipe someone out. And it's not just the fastball, mind you:

4-seam, 93.5 mph to 95 mph

Curveball, 81.2 mph to 83.9 mph

Sinker, 93.1 mph to 95.5 mph

Sweeper, 82.1 mph to 84.1 mph

Changeup, 86.9 mph to 88.9 mph

That's a substantial velocity increase on five of his seven pitches, making him one of the more transformative pitchers of the early season. In his debut, the 4-seam induced a .091 BA against. You think that was good? What if I told you his curveball induced a .000 BA on a .000 xBA, and that his sinker induced a .000 BA on a .003 xBA? Or what if I told you his sweeper wasn't even put in play?This was an utterly dominant from Randy Vasquez and his pitch shape looked tight as hell:

This is a pitch shape we've really come to love here, using all planes of the zone with breaking & an optional cutter glove-side , and heat & off-speed arm side. This diagonal pitch shape tunneling in combination with the 4-seam and complimentary offerings is what I'm going to call a "scythe." Randy had similar pitch shape in 2025, but there was a bit less iVB on the arm-side offerings - we're looking at 16.3 iVB on the 4-seam in 2026 vs 15.6 in 2025.

The increased iVB in combination with increased velocity not only makes these pitches harder to hit, but also changes the eye level and fucks with the awareness of the hitter, thus making the glove side stuff that much harder to hit. 95+ mph on 16.3 iVB out of a low 3/4 arm slot, and with above average arm-side run? That's going to get by you real quick if you're not sitting on it. His cutter is also playing much better in 2026, with more glove-side cut and vertical drop, greatly expanding the shape differential between the 4-seam and the cutter - basically, it's complimenting the 4-seam significantly more, and should theoretically locate better in on the hands of lefties. Whether or not that comes to fruition remains to be seen.

Randy looks to be an extremely solid pitcher in deeper redraft leagues, and most likely more than a just a streamer. Between his stellar Spring Training stuff grades and his 2026 debut domination, I'm willing to gamble on Randy going forward.

Ryne Nelson, SP, ARI

7.71 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP - that discrepancy kind of tells the whole story. Ryne's stuff looked fantastic, and his 114 Fangraphs Stuff+ grade a testament to that. His 4-seam carried with excellent velocity, and his breaking balls were nearly un-hittable, if not lacking a bit of command. But unfortunately, when you're playing the Dodgers, you have to be perfect each and every inning. One little slip up against the top of the Dodgers' order, and well yeah, you wind up with a 7.71 ERA.

But we're looking past the production of one start and fully in on Ryne. The pitch shape was awesome with nice diagonal tunneling using all three planes of the zone and working arm-side to glove-side, and as previously mentioned, the 4-seam was killing it at 96.4 mph with an elite 19.5 inches of iVB, though because it's coming out of an extremely high arm slot, this is sort of a necessity

.While his 4-seam betrayed him, his slider and curveball most certainly did not:.

000 BA on the slider

.000 BA on the curvebal

lThe Dodgers sat entirely on his 4-seam, which he threw on 62.7% usage - going forward, Ryne should be able to locate his Slider and Curveball a bit better than he did in his debut, thus forcing hitters to swing earlier in counts. Ryne Nelson has never been a 96 Location+ pitcher, so I'd have to assume better things are to come.

Cade Cavalli, SP - WSH

Like Ryne Nelson, the production didn't quite reflect the eye test, nor the metrics. Cavalli started off this one real hot, striking out guys with relative ease between his new sweeper and changeup, but things got a bit hairy as the contest progressed. If you've read my sleeper preview, you probably knew I was keen on Cavalli developing a sweeper in hopes of further alleviating a perplexingly ineffective 4-seam fastball. That sweeper was extremely effective, with a .000 BA against and a 50% whiff rate. In fact, every pitch was effective aside from the 4-seam fastball, which got crushed for a .500 BA on only 38.7% usage.

But here's the kicker - despite the .500 BA against the 4-seam, the xBA turned out to be a low .206 mark on the 4-seam, a true testament to a minuscule 33.3% hard-hit rate. Basically, Cavalli got BABIPed to death on weak contact. It happens and it fucking sucks, but we've gotta know this was bad luck and nothing more. If anything, we should be encouraged after this Cavalli start, rather than dissuaded! Cavalli's full xBA: 4-seam, .206 xBA Curveball, .167 xBA Sinker, .167 xBA Sweeper, .029 xBAChangeup, N/A xBA.

After a beautiful Spring and a promising data-driven 2026 debut, Cavalli remains fully in play as a dark-horse for #1 sleeper.

One note I want to make on Cavalli's pitch shape is the looseness of his release point - it's very clear he's getting inconsistent movement on his pitches, like that 4-seam. Inconsistent iVB like can indicate different release points, which could then lead to tipped pitches. At his best, Cavalli is throwing a 4-seam with a close to 20 inch iVB, but at worst, we're looking at 12 inches. His sinker and changeup are also inconsistent in their arm-side movement. In a way, this could be a benefit - unpredictably in movement isn't easy to hit. But at the very least, the 4-seam needs to be tightened up, because that's a pitch that needs to rise in the zone.

Carmen Mlodzinski, SP - PIT

Mlod had a promising 2026 debut, tossing 4.1 innings with 8 Ks and no walks. The 4.15 ERA and 1.38 WHIP are nothing to write home about, nor the 4.1 innings pitched, but one cannot deny the strikeout potential is enticing. The splitter is looking much improved in 2026, with 4.4 inches of vertical drop vs 2.5 inches in 2025 - that's a 75% increase.

That improvement showed in his first outing, as the splitter induced a .143 BA (.169 xBA) with a 40% put-away rate and 40% hard-hit rate on a 56.3% ground ball rate.

Basically, if hitters weren't whiffing (20% whiff rate), they were getting on top of the ball and hitting weak grounders for easy outs. Perfect.

But that's not to say there's no whiff offering here, because the curveball looked excellent as well. Even though batters hit .500 against it, we see a .154 xBA and a 50% whiff rate & K rate. This curveball has excellent shape and really distances itself from every other pitch in the arsenal with excellent drop and glove side break. Between the splitter and curveball, Mlod has multiple ways of getting outs.

That brings us to the sinker and 4-seam, his two primary pitches and fastballs. Mlod made it very clear that the 4-seam is reserved for LHH and the sinker for RHH, and although the sinker didn't get desirable results, the 4-seam emerged from the contest with a .154 xBA. I will admit, I'm a bit concerned with the sinker, as it wasn't very good in 2025 either. Here's to hoping that 4-seam can become an effective pitch vs righties as well, because as a righty, Mlodzinski has no reason to be struggling against same-sided hitting.

Sam Bachman, RP - LAA

The stuff here is real nasty - we're looking at a three pitch mix with 98.4 mph sinker that destroys both RHH and LHH, a 91.7 mph changeup in on the hands of LHH, and a slider that crushes RHH and makes them whiff to the high heavens. Through three innings, no batter has registered a hit, and the sinker and changeup don't even own an xBA - neither has been put into play. His 113 Stuff+ grade is an indicator of just how potent this pitch mix is.

This dominance produced a hold, and it looks like Bachman has the setup role locked down. In saves+holds leagues, Bachman is shaping up to be a fantastic waiver add, and could wind up finishing as a top 30 reliever.

Erik Sabrowski, RP - CLE

The iVB King is back at it, and I mean he's really fucking back. If you read my underrated 4-seam piece, you'll know that I claimed this guy's 4-seam is one of the best in the entire league. It sat at an elite 19.8 inch iVB in 2025, second to only Alex Vesia. The pitch racked up an absurd 6 run value on only 342 pitches throw, and induced a .100 BA against.1

9.8 inches iVB? Meh. After his first two innings pitched, both resulting in holds by the way, we're looking at a 21.7 inch iVB. And of course, the production matches the dominance - 0.00 ERA, 1.00 WHIP with a 50% K rate and 52% whiff rate. For Sabrowski, it's not just the insane 4-seam fastball, but also the slider. On 16.9% usage in 2025, it induced a .105 BA against on a 48% whiff rate. Yep, his dominant 4-seam is matched by an equally dominant slider!

And 2026 is only getting more interesting for Sabrowski, who's bumped up the slider usage rate from 16.9% to 47.2% through two innings pitched, while all but abandoning the curveball (15.1% to 2.8%).Sabrowski will be a contender to lead the league in holds with elite ratios and counting stats to boot, this guy is the real deal. If his iVB holds, he'll probably wind up with the #1 iVB in the league. Sabrowski already has 3 holds on the season.

Jordan Leasure, RP - CWS

Leasure may only be a two pitch pitcher, but these are two damned good pitches. We're looking at a 4-seam with 18-19 inches iVB and 96 mph velocity, and a slider that, in 2025, induced a .147 BA against with a 40.8% whiff rate. These two power pitches were enough to make Leasure one of the most dominant setup guys down the stretch last year, when he pitched to a 3.09 ERA in August and 2.63 ERA in September alongside much higher K rates.

In 2026, his stuff continues to grade out as well above major league average, and he's looking to cement his role as the setup man in Chicago. In saves+holds leagues, Leasure might wind up being a solid add, and he's almost universally available. He's not quite Sabrowski tier, but the ceiling is high.

Connor Seabold, RP - DET

Seabold is competing with Killian for the largest stuff improvement on this list, as his fangraphs Stuff+ has jumped from a 94 in 2025 to 122 in 2026. What does that mean? Check out these velocity and iVB jumps:

That 4-seam improvement is notable, with a 2 mph velocity increase and 3 inch iVB increase. This is just a significantly better fastball. The changeup now has a bit less vertical drop on it, but has gained nearly 2 mph of velocity and 2.2 inches of horizontal break. That run on the changup is actually quite significant and it almost plays like a slow 2-seam fastball in on the hands of RHH, but also an awesome back door option to LHH. Through 2.1 innings pitch, this changeup has yet to be put into play, while the 4-seam has given up a hit. Thus, a 0.00 ERA and 0.43 WHIP.The stuff is good.

AJ Blubaugh, RP/SP - HOU

Blubaugh has looked excellent through 4.1 innings pitch, pitching the tune of a 2.08 ERA and 0.46 WHIP. If Sabrowski is the "iVB King", then AJ Blubaugh may very well be the "WHIP God."

After posting a 0.88 WHIP across 32 innings pitched in 2025, Blubaugh is right back at it in 2026, already sitting at a 77th percentile xBA with a 69th percentile whiff rate and 66th percentile K rate. And like Sabrowski, Blubaugh also featured on my underrated 4-seams list - we're looking at a 17.5 inch iVB here with superb arm-side run and good velocity. Where Blubaugh has so far improved is his BB% - we're looking at 0 walks issues through 4.1 innings, whereas 25th percentile BB% in 2025 left a lot to be desired.

There's actually something observable that may be indicating this is, perhaps, a sticky metric - his extension. In 2025, Blubaugh threw on 71st percentile extension, leading to a nice perceived velocity, but perhaps a lack of control. In 2026, Blubaugh's mechanics have drastically changed as he's now pitching on 47th percentile extension. By shortening the length of the his delivery, he's sacrificed a bit of perceived velocity for more control, and the results have been excellent.

Blubaugh is one of my favorite young pitchers in the league and I firmly believe he has the potential to be a frontline starter, the stuff is there. For now, he's stuck in a long-relief role in the bullpen, but he should most certainly be the first man up in the event of injury - this a rotation featuring Lance McCullers, so it almost seems like an inevitability, does it not?

Caleb Kilian, RP - SF

Kilian has undergone perhaps the greatest velocity transformation of the offseason:

4-seam, 93.6 to 98.2 mph, 15.6 to 17.2 inch iVB (Damn)

Knuckle Curve, 76.3 to 82.8 mph

Sinker, 92.4 to 97.2 mph

Sweeper now a Slider, 80.1 to 90.7 mph

This is a drastic velocity increase across the entire pitch mix that saw Kilian dominate the Yankees in his first inning of work. Kilian, the converted reliever, is looking to make an unexpected splash onto the RP scene with overwhelming power stuff, and very well could wind up seizing a high leverage role in the Giants pen. Keep an eye on him.

Hogan Harris, RP - LVA

The A's have a sneaky-good lineup in 2026 with the emergence of guys like Kurtz and Wilson, meaning they'll find themselves in positions to win games. And with Hogan Harris at a setup guy, who pitched to a 3.20 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in 2026, they should wind up converting those opportunities. Harris is a fine pitcher with solid stuff and has yet to give up a run through 2 IP. His velocity and iVB are both up significantly on the 4-seam:

93.5 to 95.9 mph, 17.5 to 18.9 inches iVB

He's also completely abandoned his changeup, sweeper, and cutter while also lowering his extension, so there's definitely some mechanical and pitch mix changes here in early 2026. With one hold already on the season, expect Harris to be the go-to setup guy with the upside to close games at some point.

Juan Morillo, RP - ARI

Morillo found himself being used in an extremely high-leverage situation against the top of the Dodgers order, and very nearly got through it. After retiring Ohtani and Tucker in the 8th, he faltered against Betts and Smith (who smashed a dinger). Thus, a 10.80 ERA.

But Morillo's stuff looked genuinely strong, and his 4-seam had some real juice behind it, clocking in at 98.7 mph with 16 inches of iVB. If the Diamondbacks continue to opt to use Morillo in these kinds of situations, I think he'll more often than not come out of it with a hold. His command was off against the best lineup in baseball, it is what it is.

Johnny Lasagna, RP - ARI

Like Morillo, Lasagna was used late against the Dodgers, and looked awesome. His sinker clocked in at 97.5 mph and his primary curveball registered a 40% whiff rate. But even better was his changeup, clocking in at 90.6 mph and registering a 66.7% whiff rate. That nice 7 mph velocity gap between the sinker and changeup makes it tunnel extremely solid tunnel pitch, especially as it rests on the exact same horizontal plane as the sinker.

Loáisga's #1 issue throughout his entire career has been his inability to stay healthy, and if he could, he'd almost certainly be one of the elite relievers of this league. Even as a Yankees fan, the question was always "what if?" when it came to Johnny's health. If he cements a role as the D-backs setup guy over Juan Morillo, we're looking at a bunch of holds.

Keaton Winn, RP/SP - SF

Oh Keaton Winn, one of my greatest failed predictions...thus far. Back in 2023, I was bullish enough on Winn to recommend him as one of my elite SP sleepers of the season. And at first, it looked good...until injuries struck. That was when I learned Winn was built like Tyler Glasnow, in that he's made of glass.But what you may not know is that Winn actually returned to the Giants in the twilight days of the 2025 season, and pitched a really healthy statcast:

Now it's 2026 and Winn has seen velocity increases on his fastballs,

4-seam, 95.8 to 96.6 mph, 14.6 to 16 inches iVB (nice increase)

Sinker, 95 to 95.7 mph

And on top of that, his splitter boasts 2 more inches of drop. Taking all of this into account, the 117 Stuff+ grade makes complete sense - Winn is filthy this year. With an uncertain relief role that may or may not include high-leverage situations, there's no fantasy value...yet. But with no runs given up through 2 IP and some seriously potent strikeout stuff on display, Keaton could either earn himself the setup role or even find himself back in the rotation.

Will Klein, RP - LAD

Will fucking Klein, World Series hero and champion. And guess what? The stuff is still as elite as it looked in 2025, when I recommended adding him late in the regular season (though that didn't work out well). I'm glad the Dodgers' staff are finally coming around on using Klein as a high-leverage guy, because damn is the stuff excellent. So far, through two innings, Klein has pitched to a 0.00 ERA and .050 WHIP.

Brady House, 3B - WSH

A real nice start to the campaign for the House, who has thus far seen his bat speed increase from 72.4 mph to 73.1, and with it, and improved fast swing %. That's resulted in an awesome .670 xSLG and an actual slash line of .308/.357/.895 with a .538 SLG. House is really hitting the ball hard and with a really solid 58th percentile squared-up %, meaning he's making the most of his newfound bat speed. Squared-up % is something I look at pretty closely, and I highly recommend you read my squared-up bat tracking analysis over on the Patreon for a breakdown.

House destroyed AAA pitching in 2025 and is looking to finally translate that success at the major league level. He's made a few adjustments to his positioning and stance in the box, and this far, his intercept point has shifted from 4.3 inches to 0.9 inches in front of the plate, shifting his tendency from 3 to 6 degrees oppo. Basically, he's letting the ball get closer to the plate before making contact, and generating more power as a result of not getting out in front.

Joey Loperfido, OF - HOU

Loperfido had an excellent spring, slashing .317/.417/.832, and his metrics really suggested good things could be on the horizon:

https://prospectsavant.com/st/player/694388

The EVs and hard-hit rate were encouraging enough for me to take note of Loperfido as a player to watch, and so far, he's failed to disappoint. With 4 hits on 12 plate appearances and a sparkling 97th percentile hard-hit rate, Loperfido is definitely swinging a potent bat.

There's been a small bat speed increase of .5 mph and a 2 degree improvement to swing tilt, alongside a shift from a 5 degrees open stance to 1 degree open. You always love to see mechanical changes accompanying improvement!

At age 26, it's the perfect time for the 6'3 and toolsy Loperfido to finally break out.

Brandon Lockridge, OF - MIL

Lockridge was excellent in Spring Training, a continuation of a 2025 campaign that saw him hit .315 with an .851 OPS at AAA. And although Lockridge struggled mightily upon promotion in 2025, 2026 looks like an entirely different beast for the age 29 potential breakout. His bat speed has jumped from 71.1 mph to 73.9 mph, with some notable fast swings at over 76 mph. This improved bat speed has Lockridge hitting the ball hard with a 50% hard-hit rate, and that's earned him four hits on the season. We'll see if the bat speed increase holds up.

Lockridge is extremely athletic and has a history of stealing lots of bases, so it's no surprise he's already swiped a bag in the early days of 2026. Keep an eye on Lockridge - if he earned everyday reps, he might just wind up being the Brewer's 2026 Isaac Collins.

TJ Rumfield, 1B - COL

Damn - it feels real fucking good to see Rumfield living up to the ridiculous expectations I've set for him. If you're unfamiliar with those expectations, you're probably new around here:

https://www.gerbilsports.com/post/brick-by-brick-building-a-dynasty-1

https://www.reddit.com/r/DynastyBaseball/comments/1rs4sa9/tj_rumfield_is_shaping_up_be_an_incredible/https://www.patreon.com/posts/redraft-sleepers-152470787?utm_medium=clipboard_copy&utm_source=copyLink&utm_campaign=postshare_creator&utm_content=join_link

https://www.patreon.com/posts/03-03-spring-in-151384169?utm_medium=clipboard_copy&utm_source=copyLink&utm_campaign=postshare_creator&utm_content=join_link

Rarely do you find a hitter with this size, contact, vision, and plate discipline, where the only thing lacking is a touch of power and bat speed. And even then, he still hit .285 with a near .400 OBP at AAA!When a guy possesses the unteachable aspects of being a great hitter, and you can clearly the see the potential for growth in the most underdeveloped area, you have to take that gamble. After going 3/5 today, expect Rumfield's statcast to look even sexier come tomorrow.

Joey Wiemer, OF - WSH

When a new season begins, the most sticky stat to observe is bat speed. It tells us who's hit the weight room and made adjustments over the offseason. With improved bat speed comes the possibility of stronger contact with the baseball, and thus, more production. That's just physics.

So here's one Joey Wiemer, who boasts 90th percentile bat speed through his first handful of ABs. We're looking at a 75.8 mph swing. What was it in 2025, you ask? 72.5 mph at the 53rd percentile.

Yeah, jumping from the 53rd percentile up into the 90th percentile is pretty fucking insane. And even if that average comes down a bit, which it likely will, it should still find itself well above his 2025 mark. Even if it settled at, say, the 75th percentile, that would be an enormous improvement.

As you can guess, this bat speed has come with some major production and a strong statcast. Wiemer yet again had an excellent day at the office, going 2/4 with a BB. He's no longer batting 1.000, but he's still above .500! With this kind of bat speed, it's hard not to believe his power metrics will all settle in the upper quadrant of percentiles, even if they regress slightly. The 6'4 Joey Wiemer is officially looking to become a slugger.

Brandon Marsh, OF - PHI

Yet another bat speed, this time for Brandon marsh:

With a 2 mph bat speed increase over 10 plate appearances, Marsh has managed to drastically improve his ideal attack angle % in the early going of the season. His whiff rate is notably low and he's squaring up on the ball alongside that improved bat speed - everything here is working right now. The result? A couple of doubles and a single. Marsh has always been an intriguing platoon option due to his ability to mash RHP and random combinations of strong statcast metrics, and perhaps this is the year it finally all comes together? There's something we should note with Marsh:

2024 Whiff Percentile - 33rd

2025 Whiff Percentile - 60th

2026 Whiff Percentile - 94th

Even if that 94th percentile doesn't hold (and it won't), a minor improvement from his 2025 mark could drastically improve his value. That's not out of the question, and in fact, follows his trend of improvement over the years.

Jordan Walker, OF - STL

From our Discord chat.

With great swing tilt and better attack angles comes great power, and synonymous with great power is Jordan Walker and his 100th percentile bat speed. Sometimes it's hard to remember that Walker is only 23 and still learning how to be an effective major leaguer, and that maybe we should show these young players just a tad more grace. With improved swing mechanics and a new approach at the plate, Walker is an extremely provocative gamble in redraft leagues.