Midweek Musings
- John Gerbino
- 14 hours ago
- 6 min read
Jakob Marsee (& Heriberto)
As Mr. Jesus Sanchez quickly found himself on his merry way to Houston, I decided to turn my focus to Heriberto Hernandez. And that's perfectly fine - he went 2/4 yesterday, and 2/3 with a dinger today. He's a nice, potential-laden player, and he's backing that up with production. He's a proper gem through and through, and we're happy to have him as a new Gerbil poster-boy.
But perfectly fine isn't good enough, and perhaps I should have been more focused on any outfielders being called up from AAA to help accommodate the loss of Jesus. I should have been ready for not one, but two gems to be uncovered from a farm sysem I've begun to appreciate over the years. One thing should be made clear - the Marlins' scouting department know how to do their job.
It's taken only one week for Marsee to solidify himself as a real fantasy contributor, showing off a very advanced bat-to-ball profile combined with above-average speed. Coming out of AAA, there's a few metrics we obviously adore:
71st percentile barrel
90th percentile BB
94th percentile chase
81st percentile whiff
72nd percentile Pull Air
76th percentile zone contact
Marsee is extremely selective with what he swings at, showing not only an MLB level eye, but perhaps something even greater than that of the average MLB player. He has a 76th percentile zone contact rate, yet he only has a 34th percentile zone swing % - this guy doesn't just swing at anything in the zone, but rather, pitches over the heart of the plate. His ability to distinguish between tough pitches in the shadow of the zone, pitches out of the zone (94th percentile chase rate), and over the heart can take him quite far.
His knack for recognizing the most hittable pitches certainly explains his lovely pull air % at AAA, and his extremely nice sweet-spot % for the Marlins. Marsee is a guy that is going to make contact with good launch angles, take walks, and steal bases, and although I don't expect his MLB statcast to stay superstar-esque as it currently is with only a handful of ABs under his belt, I do expect him to remain a more than relevant athletic fantasy contributor with the upside to be a 20/25, .280, .800 hitter on a team that should be producing a lot of runs going forward. Agustin, Stowers, Marsee, Heriberto, Otto, Conine, and Edwards are the makings of a top 15 lineup going into 2026.
Tyler Freeman
If Tyler Freeman was dropped in your league, then good for you - go scoop him up! I think, what frustrates me the most, is when players that are having legitimate breakout seasons are simply discounted when they have short slumps and injury woes. Is he not allowed to slump, because he hasn't proven himself?
At only 9% owned, this is free real estate. He continues to whiff at a 99th percentile rate, continues to rock reverse splits, mashing RHP at an .864 OPS clip, and has once again found himself swiping bags with the hammy feeling better. He maintains solid average exit velocity and squared-up rates, and his sprint speed remains high enough to leg out tough singles. Consider his slump over, and expect a .300 BA, .750+ OPS hitter down the stretch. Freeman knows how to get on base, swipe bags (for fantasy purposes), and score runs. And that's without getting hot, with less than optimal launch angles - base Tyler Freeman, no supe saiyan if you will. If this guy finds the sweet-spot, there could be some major damage to be done.
Dominic Canzone
It didn't take long at all for Canzone to finally hit that big dong we were hoping would come this week, did it? There's not much to say after writing about him on Sunday, this more of an alert, because big things might be happening real soon for this masher.
Colt Keith
Much like Tyler Freeman, owners have been far too quick to give up on Keith, who unlike Freeman, has the luxury of batting lead for one of the highest octane offenses in all of baseball! No offense to the Rockies, but there's a but more prestige here.
I get it, he hit a little slump, and rage drops are all the rage - but then you have to miss out on the production that immediately follows, and it's been pretty nice over the past week.
Keith is currently whiffing at a very respectable 64th percentile rate, while boasting an elite 88th percentile sweet-spot and cute 74th percentile squared-up. And more impressive is that he also walks at a 74th percentile clip. This guy makes contact with nice launch angles and takes his walks, and has all of the makings of an OBP monster. At the top of the Tigers' lineup, this is simply too good to ignore.
Johan Oviedo So, you may have seen his last start - a one inning affair that resulted in a really beautiful 18.00 ERA and 5.00 WHIP. Yet somehow, he emerged from that contest as an easy add down the line for us metrics loving folks. From that one nightmarish inning, Oviedo emerged with a .182 xBA and 99th percentile Whiff rate, 100th percentile GB %, and elite extension to go with a 95 mph fastball ( up to 100 mph perceived velocity). Then you look at his fangraphs projections, which show him having a 101 stuff + in his first start back from TJ rehab. The fact of the matter is, Oviedo completely beat himself in this start, issuing three walks and earning himself a miserably low 72 Location + grade from fangraphs. His location won't be this bad long-term, and it's better to see him beat himself than get beaten, right?
He's now been demoted to AAA to tune up a bit more, but I don't expect him to start more than two games in the minors. I think he'll be too good to keep down, and could be a surprise stream in the final stretch of the season.
The Big Sabrowski
Sabrowski has been low-key excellent for the Guardians, compiling a miniscule 1.32 ERA and 1.02 WHIP through 13.2 innings pitched. And guess what? With Clase out of the league, Sabrowski has officially locked up the closer role, with two saves in his last three appearances!
Sabrowski may not throw hard, only averaging 94 mph on the 4-seam, but his 107 Stuff+ grade speaks for itself. And check out his three pitches:
He's currentl;y throwing that 4-seam 67.9% of the time, which frankly, is absurd. What's more absurd is it has a .063 xBA and 42% whiff rate. It's compiled a run value (cumalitive stat) of 5 across only 13.2 innings pitched....what the fuck is this pitch? It certainly has good movement, less on the vertical end and more on the horizontal end, and a really nice 97% active spin rate...but is that all there is to it? I'm watching the film, and I just see a nice, flat fastball that has a bit of rising action. I suggest adding this guy for the saves, and watching him pitch, if you're into seeing an unhittable 94 mph fastball that he throws nearly 70% of the time.
Edit: They were holds, not saves. He’s the setup guy.
Garrett Whitlock
If a holds guy excels in a league where holds don't count, is the holds guy really excelling at all?
Whitlock is having a hell of a comeback year in the Sox bullpen, and finds himself sitting at 15% owned. if you're needing holds, than look no further. The statcast kind of speaks for itself, as does the 2.91 ERA.
Kyle Bradish
Over a month ago, I suggested readers stash Keaschall and Bradish in their IL slots.
Half the prophecy has come to pass.
Bradish has excellent stuff through the majority of rehab, often to solid results, but floundered in his most recent AAA start. Still, we got some interesting data from just that one game, even if the results were poor!
Check out those lovely psSTUFF+ grades, all coming in well above average, with the lowest being his 102 grade slider, which he threw at 38.6% through three innings. I can promise you right now, his slider usage will not be nearly this high when he returns the bigs, and this was more or less a slider tuneup start. See what 113 graded sinker? That will most likely be his primary MLB pitch, just as it was in 2024 when he threw it 39.6% of the time. Don't read too much into the earned runs and what not - Bradish is looking to be an ace again.
Isaac Collins I'm so proud of my boy. Even as I was the first person you've probably ever seen mention Isaac Collins, beating the drum for the then-JAG all the way back in week 5, I honestly couldn't have expected such a solid campaign. Collins currently leads ALL NL rookies in fWAR, blending gold-glove defense with excellent small-ball plate discipline, and his production as of late has been noteworthy. His BA is up to .287, and the OPS up to .822. Excellent.
Watching: Varsho Alek Thomas Cade Cavalli