Waiver Wire Week 19 - Too Much Talent, Not Enough Roster Space.

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Welcome to yet another Waiver Wire post, it's nice to have you reading this late in the season. If you read my midweek musings post, you'll see that I've incorporated a bit of that here, alongside a few other names. But moreso, I spent the entire trade deadline writing this up, and it should be just as relevant as this actual waiver wire piece. Some of the names will be mentioned again, but others, like O'Brien, Jojo Romero, Santana, etc won't be mentioned here. Please check it out, if you haven't!

Warming Bernabel

I'm obsssessed with this dude's name, it's really fucking good. And so, thank god, he's been awesome at baseball, because it would have been a complete and utter waste had he sucked. Mr. Bernabel had a modest AAA profile - a ton of beautiful bat-to-ball metrics, great recognition of pitches in the zone, rarely strikes out, and a really nice Pull Air % to boot. And even beyond the contact metrics, Bernabel has a surprisingly high 71st Max EV percentile compared to his 50th% EV, 90th% EV, barrel, and hard-hit rates. A statistical weirdo, if you will. So now he's at the MLB level, and suddenly demolishing baseballs as if he's a power hitter or something. There's nothing about the statcast that makes you think this kind of potential exists...but....:

Having a stupid, ridiculous, other-worldly 41% Pull Air rate at Coors field is carrying real, real hard. In fact, I don't believe I've ever seen someone use Coors this efficiently in my time looking into analytics.

https://prospectsavant.com/player/682653

Darell Hernaiz

Hernaiz was an absolute machine at AAA, slashing for a .305 BA, .807 OPS, and swiping 12 bags - and thus far, everything has carried over the MLB level and then some. Hernaiz approach at the plate was fantastic leading up to the promotion, with all of his zone contact numbers, alongside that whiff rate, coming in well above the 50th percentile. The whiff rate really stands out at the 88th percentile. And although the power profile won't jump off the page, note that he does have a 67th percentile Max EV, so a similar situation to Warming. We saw that play out as Hernaiz hit a 410 foot shot in only his second start of the season. With 3B being pretty weak on waivers, Hernaiz could be a godsend for teams looking to upgrade going into the playoffs.

https://prospectsavant.com/player/687231

Austin Martin

Previously mentioned in a Brick By Brick piece, Austin Martin has finally gotten another promotion to the big leagues after hitting .324 at AAA. Unlike Bernabel, there's no Coors luxury here for a guy that also has some tremendous whiff rates and contact ability, and also unlike Bernabel, you're not going to find a super nice Pull Air %. But, what you will you find is an awesome contact hitter that's capable of finding all of the gaps, putting up tough ABs, and walking at a really high rate. For OBP leagues, Austin Martin is going to be worth his weight in silver.

https://prospectsavant.com/player/668885

Joey Loperfido After slashing .373 with a .981 OPS through 59 ABs, it's time to give Loperfido the recognition he deserves. I wasn't entirely sure if this was real, but his middling statcast combined with this gives some hope that there's something real here:

A real nice 20.9 Pull Air % for the lefty, combined with an overall Air % of 62, makes Loperfido more desirable than meets the eye. He has just enough juice to lift the ball over the infield and place it right in the gaps, and good enough speed to turn would-be-singles into doubles. I don't think there's necessarily a ton of power upside, but he can certainly produce in a nice Jays lineup.

Ben Rice Here we go again, with Gerbil talking up Ben Rice, right? Over the last eleven games, Ben Rice has missed only three starts, with his most recent scratch still resulting in a pinch hit single. His playtime continues to trend in the right direction, as his rostered % continues to trend wrong direction (29% on Yahoo), making this a rather easy add if you actually want the guy. We all know Ben Rice has arguably the sexiest statcast in all of baseball, with the kind of expected numbers you'd see attached to a player like Juan Soto or Tatis Jr., but production is the name of the game, and owners have given up on the blistering statcast to chase production elsewhere.

I truly, in my heart of hearts, believe the positive regression is upon us for this final stretch of the season, and expect a Barger-esque breakout that will have fantasy playoff contenders praying at the altar of Ben Rice's statcast. When you turn on a Yankees game and actually get to watch Rice make contact, it's always a line-drive right at the defense. Or a ball that dies right on the warning track, despite seeming it has the juice to reach the stands. Sometimes I see people make arguments that it's the defense playing him a certain way, and that's partially true - Ben Rice is a dead pull hitter, and excels at one of the most important determiners of success:

Attack Angle, Bat Speed, both elite.

24.3 Air Pull % is ridiculous for a lefty in Yankee Stadium.

Ben Rice not only has elite bat speed and one of the best ideal attack angles in baseball - he also has an elite-tier Pull AIR %, coming in at a piping hot 24.3%, good for 35th in baseball. Andrew Vaughn's is well above-average at 20%, and was one of the better ways of predicting his breakout aside from some nice, but not quite Ben Rice level, statcast metrics. Because he pulls the ball so often, which is not knock on Rice in any way, players often find themselves in the right spot to nab a Ben Rice missile, even if the exit velo happens to be top-notch. Everything Ben Rice does indicates he should be a top 10 hitter in baseball, but in a year that balls are traveling slightly less than they should, Ben Rice is facing the brunt of bad luck on a bunch of different fronts. However, something interesting has happen post-all-star break:

Rice has altered his attack angle after Jazz told him to get out ahead of the ball more, and he's now dropped his Pull Air % down to 22.2, while substantially increasing his Oppo Air to 22.2%, a pretty drastic 5% increase. And his overall Oppo%, groundballs included, has gone from 22.6% to 33.3%, a stark difference in approach. It's not often you'd tell a guy to stop pulling the ball so much while simultaneously lowering the "ideal" attack angle , but in Ben Rice's case, it softens the predictably of where his laser shots are going to end up and keeps the defense honest. The fact that Rice has been able to make these adjustments on the fly is a testamanent to just how skilled he is with the bat, as if the statcast wasn't enough.

Rice handles pitches in the heart of the zone, exactly what you want from your hitter.

Dominic Canzone Not quite as sexy as Ben Rice in the statcast, but still very pleasant to look at, no? Canzone continues to flirt with being a very good player, and even as he's hit .286 over the past week, the power hasn't really shown up to the expexted degree. When a guy has 80th+ percentile barrel, hard-hit, and exit velo rates, you'd probably expect at least one long trip, but alas.

Canzone currently rocks a solid Pull Air %, coming in at 17.6%, but more importantly, a 54.8 Air % total. A guy with this much power in the bat putting the ball in the air this often, with an above-average ideal attack angle, is a recipe for success in the near future. As far as predictability goes, Canzone and Ben Rice have success coming their way at some point. And much like Rice, Canzone also swings at the right pitches:

Between the metrics and expected numbers, the flyball tendency and angle of attack, and his recognition of pitches in the heart of the zone, Canzone is a breakout waiting to happen. And with Eugenio Suarez joining the squad and providing some production in the middle of the lineup, Canzone stands to benefit from a bit of protection.

JT Ginn Last night's start was an odd one for Ginn, as he walked a handful of guys, despite his ability to limit walks being one of his main draws....so we'll chalk it up to just being an anomaly, for now. It's really nice to see Ginn not only returning from an injury that kept him sidelined for months, but also back in the starting rotation after a brief bullpen stint. If you were reading GerbilSports throughout the earlier part of the seasons, you may remember I was a pretty huge Ginn fan right from the jump, and I wanted to see what I had written about him back in the day. To summarize - "His sinker is actually really fucking filthy, and reminds me a lot of a really fast changeup in the way it breaks." So there you have it, the guy has a good sinker! But that's not what I actually want to talk about. I noticed Ginn has a really cute changeup that he seems a bit reluctant to throw, sometimes neglecting to throw it at all in a few appearances. In his most recent outing, he threw it 7.8% of the time:

And as you can seen, from May 18th to Jun. 29th, he didn't throw it a single time. So how has it faired as of late?

.036 xBA, 60% whiff . 174 xBA, 50% whiff Not put in play, 100% whiff Not put in play, 50% whiff Not put in play When Ginn decides to throw the changeup, the results are exemplary. The 7.8% usage rate in his most recent start is encouraging, and we can only hope he continues to trust the pitch and bump that usage up, ideally to around at least 15%. Just looking at the changeup itself, it's clear why it works so damned well:

See how both the changeup and sinker have well-above average vertical movement compared to the rest of the league, and beyond that, 8 inches of vertical movement separates them coming out of the arm slot? Then you add in the 5 mph velocity difference, only a .2 inch horizontal break difference, and you realize, damn, that sinker really does look like a fast changeup, and that changeup really looks like a slow sinker! These two pitches look near identical coming out of Ginn's hand! This changeup/sinker combo is a fun little bag for Ginn, and I hope to see him play with it further going forward.

Dillon Dingler

Ah yes, another familiar face on the blog having a real nice stretch. Welcome back to the conversation, Dinglerberry! I fear that this midweek post may be becoming a Tigers post - blame the Tigers for having so much talent. After a real nice start to the season, Dingler kind of cooled off big time approaching the all-star break, so much so that I wound up dropping him from my team, opting to go with Ben Rice and Agustin Ramirez as my two rostered catchers. Over the past week and a half, up until his most recent two 0/3 performances, Dingler had been on fire:

Not only is Dingler arguably the best defensive catcher in the entire MLB at age 24 (fuck man, that's impressive), but his bat is the real deal. He currently rocks a .292 xBA, 73rd percentile xSLG, and a beautiful 94th percentile sweet-spot %. When Dingler makes contact, he tends to hit the ball at some really solid launch angles and with just enough juice to find the gaps and get over the infield. For a free-swinger who almost never walks, this is nice to see - he better be making contact with a 2nd percentile BB rate!

And if you don't believe in the sweet-spot percentile, just check out these hitting tendencies! He has a 66.5 air % as opposed to a 33.5% ground-ball %, to go with a Vaughn-esque 20.3 Air Pull %. It's actually impressive just how often Dingler lifts the ball, and with a little more juice as he begins to enter his prime....we could be looking at a real power threat over the next few years. Hit the weights, Dingler!

Daylen Lile

Lile has one of the more impressive profiles you'll see for a rookie nobody's really heard of aside from Nationals fans and he continues to justify why I've decided to roster him for the rest of the year. When people talk about Nationals prospects, they tend to talk about Dylan Crews, or even Bobby Barrels - but to me, Lile is their most exciting young prospect. Lile is whiffing at a veteran-esque 85th percentile mark, while maintaining a 90th percentiule sweet-spot % and 75th percentile squared-up %. In laymen's terms - bat hits ball often, ball often has a good launch angle and velocity. Not a great but velocity, but a good velocity. Add in a really solid 86th percentile sprint speed and the fact he's a lefty, and you have a star in the making. Lile is only a few pounds of muscle, so maybe an offseason, away from being a bonafide stud. If you're in a dynasty league, I wouldn't hesitate to go after Lile like he's a top 30 prospect. In your 2026 redraft, make sure you target Lile as a late-round sleeper.

That sweet, sweet Pull Air %. A bit more strength and we've got some dingers coming.

A few 0fers, but plenty of multi-hit games and counting stats.

Luis Morales Just mentioned in my trade deadline piece, Morales has officially been called up, and alongside Schlittler and Melton, has some of the best stuff coming out of AAA in 2025. Here's what I had to say: "With Mason Miller on the move, one other pitcher that may stand to benefit other than Jack perkins is Luis Morales, who's had both relief and starter work at AAA this year. The stuff is excellent, with several offerings having psStuff+ grades over 100, and he's currently holding hitters to a .221 BA to go with an excellent 2.98 ERA and 1.016 WHIP. Approaching age 23, the kid with a 97 mph, 97 mph sinker, and .178 xBA slider may just get his shot in the majors."

Morales has nasty stuff, and even in his first appearance, which was admittedly a mixed bag through two innings, still emerged from the contest with a 0.00 xBA.

Jack Perkins

With Morales making his first appearance in the bullpen, it becomes more and more likely that Perkins will be the guy taking Sears' spot in the rotation, and not the aforementioned Morales. This is some fantastic news, as Perkins has the upside to be one of the best starters down the stretch. Just looking at his statcast....god damn...that's some Skubal Snack type shit, and his 108 stuff+ on fangraphs backs it up. Perkins does have a bit of a location issue, so I don't want to steer you wrong, but when he has it going, he has the type of K upside that can win you a week. We still need confirmation of whether or not he's joining the rotation, but things are looking good. Edit: Officially joining the rotation.

Heriberto Hernandez You may remember Heriberto showing up just last week, and now he's more relevant than ever! With Jesus Sanchez shipped out to Houston, Heriberto stands to gain a huge bump in playing time, and that's good news for a guy that's this proficient with the bat. Just look at that lovely statcast. heriberto may very well wind up being Stowers 2.0, with an extremely similar profile - huge power, great launch angles, but lots of whiffs. Keep an eye on this guy and digustingly beautiful Pull Air %.

25.3% Air Pull, 61% flyball rate. Nice.

Alex Freeland Freeland has been awesome through his first through three games, and I was super keen on checking out his prospectsavant, but unfortunately, his page refuses to load. But we still have some useful data just from parsing the first three games - above-average bat speed, great plate discipline, and some really nice velocity. Freeland was rocking a .377 OBP at AAA, so the awesome chase and BB% percentiles definitely add up. If he can continue to work his way into a starting role for a powerhouse like the Dodgers, there's some serious juice here. Oh, and did I mention he had 17 SBs at AAA? Just wait until that shows up.

Emmet Sheehan

It's been officially announced - with May gone, Sheehan is joining a 6-man rotation. Enjoy your stud. Sheehan is the real deal.

Logan Henderson I dropped Logan Henderson from my NA slot to stash Beavers. The Orioles then proceeded to fuck me. But congrats to those who managed to remain patient, Logan is now returning to the MLB. Like Sheehan, this kid is the real deal, and should have never been sent down in the first place. The Brewers decisions wound up costing me both Henderson and Mis this year....and I will never forgive them.

.195 xBA on the 4-seam, which he throws 47% of the time? .234 xBA on the changeup, which he throws 41% of the time? Sheesh.

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