Waiver Wire Week 1: Let Me Make You a Cheeky Pitch, You Won't Regret It
- John Gerbino
- Apr 1
- 9 min read
Updated: Apr 1
Check me out on BlueSky at GerbilSports
The beginning of each season is a magical time for fantasy baseball fans. We're not just watching our favorite teams like the casuals, no - we're watching everything, everywhere, all at once, in hopes of adding the next league-winner to the squad. Sure, I love my Yankees and can't wait to watch them lose an ALCS to the Astros or a World Series to the Dodgers, but I love my fantasy team and the entirety of the MLB more. We've transcended common fandom, and for that, we should give ourselves a pat on the back.
Always remember that MLB players are absolute beasts, spending their offseasons bulking up (Not Mookie though), hitting the pitching lab, changing swings and bats, finding god or gods, etc. People will say "My 9th grade science teacher Mrs. Finkle taught me about sample sizes, and I concur with them that these stats are irrelevant until each player has 42069 ABs!" Look, I agree that sample sizes are important. But we don't want to fall into the trap of X player has Y track record therefore we need more data.
First, that's boring. Second, does that account for variables like swing changes, torpedo bats, added muscle, or new pitches? I know a bunch of these guys inevitably won't stick - that's the way it goes. But I also know we will 100% discover the ones that do before our leaguemates, and that's the dream. It's easy to add and drop the ones who fade after getting production out of them, but the ones who hold down a roster spot for the entirety of the year are a rare and elusive find. Like a shiny pokemon.
Also, a side-note about Torpedo Bats. These things are straight up a game changer for the way I tackle these blogs. The stat i've weighed the most heavily for the last two years has been Sweet-Spot %. You can check out this fun article from baby GerbilSports two years ago: https://www.gerbilsports.com/post/mlb-s-statcast-just-added-a-very-useful-stat.
Now that a bat exists that can improve a player's sweet-spot, well, I'm going to have to keep track of every single player who uses these bats and monitor sweet-spot perentage shifts throughout the year. And that's totally fucking fine. Hell, it will be fun!
Dick Fitts
Reddit's favorite young upcoming pitcher purely based on ability alone, Dick's first start really couldn't have gone much better. After escaping a bases-loaded jam early in the contest solely created by his refusal to throw fastballs, Fitts found his groove and started pumping 96-97 MPH fastballs in the zone. It was awesome seeing the kid settle in against a strong Rangers' lineup and earn a quality start his very first time out.
Fitts gameplan was extremely tailored by coaches, or at least it seems that way - 28% across the Sweeper, Slider, and 4-seam isn't a coincidence. They definitely wanted to see what worked best with equal sample size, and despite the .400 BA against the Sweeper, it had a really nice .213 BA against and 37.5 whiff %. The sweeper was hit hard for runs, which explains the -1 run value, but that's neither here nor there. Long-term, the sweeper looks like a great K pitch to compliment a pretty good fastball. I do think Fitts should consider dropping the slider usage a tad and working in the curveball a bit more and see how that shakes out. Seeing as how the curveball is an entirely new pitch, along with the sinker and changeup, we may see a bit more experimentation with Fitts' pitchmix. Fitts reminds me a lot of a premiering Schwelly, who was our boi last year.
Ryan Feltner
Feltner came pretty close to a QS his first time out, giving up 2 runs across 5 innings with a 5:1 K/BB. After closing out 2024 on a strong note, I plan on watching Feltner pretty closely this year to see if he can replicate that same success over the better part of a season. If there was one thing Feltner excelled at in his first start, it was his ability to limit walks and make hitters whiff. That's a sexy combination of strengths, we look for guys who can pump our K and K/BB numbers more than anything. His low chase % also shows us he was filling the zone and finding success, which means he has something working. And that would be his location:
Feltner's come into 2025 with a pitch mix tweak that builds on 2024's late season trend of less sliders, more changeups - so far so good. His changeup was super effective in his first start and actually helped his slider be an effective pitch instead of a detriment, both with strong whiff percentages. His fastball wasn't quite as good as it was last year, either, which makes the outing all the more encouraging when that gets going. Osvaldo Bido
Bido's statcast after one appearance isn't nearly as red and beautiful as you'd expect, but 5-6 innings and 1-3 ER are the kind of outings you can expect from Bido. The 61st percentile whiff rate was solid, and better statcast numbers should be expected based on both last year's results and the below numbers.
No pitch Bido threw other than his sinker was hit well or hard, and he only threw the sinker for 3.7% of his pitches. The 60% whiff rate on his cutter suggests he should start using the pitch to putaway batters, which is something he didn't do in his first appearance. It seems he's using it as a setup pitch for his fastball, but there's more there.
Another thing to note about Bido is his pitching form has changed quite a bit, with his extension being down to the 7th percentile in 2025 after the 39th percentile in 2024. This isn't necessarily a bad thing, but a mechanical adjustment worth point out to arguably help with his location after a 74 Location+ in 2024. The fact that he still has a 104 stuff+ despite a much shorter delivery is great news.
Jonathan Cannon
Cannon posting a 0 ER, 5 IP gem in his very first start is pretty awesome. White Sox fans deserve things to be excited about, and the young Cannon is one of them. Looking at his statcast, we need to immediately note that everything looks better than last year, but the most important thing is that beautiful GB%. After posting a measly 26th percentile GB% in 2024, Cannon suddenly looks like an elite GB pitcher in 2025.
Cannon's sweeper use is way down in 2025 after being his worst pitch in 2024 with a -8 run value. His sinker was his most effective pitch, inducing groundball after groundball to a nice .229 xBA (.310 xBA last year). This had me wondering if his Sinker is just straight up better, so we look at that:
Right away, we see the sinker has nearly an entire extra inch of vertical drop, going from 26.8 inches of vertical drop to 27.6. This explains the drastic increase in GB%. On top of the strong sinker, his sweeper is much, much better: 38.2 to 41.4 inches of vertical drop, 12.5 GLV to 18.2 GLV on horizontal break.
I can't emphasize enough how much better his sweeper looks all around, and how it explains his sudden ability to make guys whiff and K. Cannon is a much better pitcher all around if these numbers stick, so much so that I've now convinced myself to pick him up.
Sean Burke
Between Cannon and Burke, White Sox fans have some bright pitching to look forward to, and again, I'm really happy for them. Burke was excellent at limiting hard contact and BBs, but overall his K profile and fastball velocity were way down. His extension is still elite, so what's going on?
Burke's pitch mix has chanted pretty drastically to begin the 2025 campaign, going from a primary fastball guy to a primary slider guy, and I'm not necessarily sure if this is the result of decreased velocity. But it worked though, as his slider was nearly unhittable.
His slider has nearly 6 inches of extra vertical drop, and we all know 6 inches a lot, right guys? Going from 29.2 inches to 35 inches is a pretty drastic increase. More importantly, he's gone from 3.8 to 6.4 inches of gloveside break on the horizontal plane, arguably the most important aspect for an improved slider. So overall, his slider is way nastier this year, despite decreased fastball velocity.
His arm angle is the main explanation to the drastic changes to both fastball velocity and break on his offspeed, with a 3 degree higher releasepoint in 2025. How this shakes out is anyone's guess, but as it stands, he's pitched one really solid game with his new mechanics.
Adrian Pallante
Nice firt start for Pallante, who displayed increased whiff and BB percentages, despite slightly decreased velocity on the fastball. Pallante's changed very little in regards to pitch mix, break on pitches, and arm angle coming into 2025, instead doubling down on what made him successful in 2024. The main change to the pitch mix, if I had to point one out, has been a decreased use of the slider in favor of more sinkers, making him more of a power pitcher.
There's no drastic changes to movement, but he has added an inch of horizontal break to the sinker and taken some off the fastball, which is cool, the flatter the fastball the better in many cases. Overall, Pallante looks like a solid add and we hope some velocity returns.
Kyle Freeland
Don't look now, but an old dog has learned a new trick, that new trick being a Sweeper that's suddenly become his secondary pitch at a 20.9% usage rate. And with that new pitch, a fantastic first start to the season that has his statcast looking spicy red - yummy.
Bold move to add a new pitch, use it this much, and come out of it with an insane 37.5% whiff rate, 50.0% K rate, and .180 xBA. What the fuck Kyle, is this allowed?
That sweeper is really fucking good, with a red hot 3.7 vertical inches over the rest of the league's sweepers. And notably, his sinker is a lot more flat, which may very well be making his sweeper all the more effective. He might be in for the best year of his career. Kyle Freeland, legendary streamer no more?
Jose Soriano
Those familar with my work know how much I love this guy. This dude pumps 100 MPH sinkers throughout the zone and hitters can do nothing but hit weak grounders in response. My bet for José Soriano is that, barring injury, he finishes top 5 in quality starts and becomes the most efficient workhorse pitcher in the MLB. We can see already that he's elite when it comes to inducing groundballs, but also at limiting hard contact through barrels and hard-hit %. It's also pleasantly surprising to see his K% slightly up!
Soriano is doubling down on the sinker to start the season, and virtually abandoned his 4-seam fastball, which is the best decision he could have made.
When it comes to Soriano, his knack for throwing 98-100 MPH sinkers is secondary to the ridiculous amounts of break on his pitches. That sounds silly to say, but it's just reality for Soriano and his seemingly impossible pitching profile. Somehow, he's added 2 extra inches of break to the sinker and a whopping 4 inches of break to the curveball. God damn, Soriano.
Germàn Márquez
If Germàn is finally healthy after years of battling injuries, including a Tommy John surgery, then he shouldn't be disregarded at only age 30. His fastball is sitting at a healthy 96 MPH tops and has managed to limit BBs and hard contact through one outing.
He's scrapped a pretty bad sinker, instead throwing the slider hasas a secondary pitch. Considering his slider was nearly unhittable last year, this seems like a pretty good decision.
Although his fastball has the same healthy velocity as it did last year, the vertical drop has decreased and the horizontal break has increased. These are all good signs for a pitch he throws 33% of the time.
Other Pitchers I'm Monitoring
Cade Povich got blown up, yet I can't help but impressed by the 9 batters K'd. His pitch that really got blown up was his 4-seam, which is also his best pitch and most reliable. His offspeed stuff actually looked a lot better than last year, especially the curveball, which makes me think he could be pretty good as soon as the fastball settles.
Randy Vasquez ditched his fastball (his primary pitch in 2024) and threw almost entirely offspeed stuff, which all looked way better than his fastball.
Jordan Hicks fooled me last year, as I drafted him from the outset and watched his arm die slowly over the course of the first two months. I'm skeptical his velocity stays up.
EDIT: Meant to include Bubic under 'Monitoring'. Not much velocity, but excelled at just about every other aspect of pitching. He's added a slider to his aresenal.
EDIT: Just watched some the Sox game and Shane Smith looks nasty. Pitching a gem against Twins. Also didn't include Jack Leiter because everyone knows about him.
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