Waiver Wire Week 12: Pitchers, Pitchers, Pitchers

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Colton Gordon: QS

Brandon Walter: QS

Hunter Dobbins: QS

The Gerbilsports pitchers have had a pretty good week (Paddack doesn’t count....); well, better than the hitters have fared, at least. It's actually been pretty difficult to find bats that can match the quality of young pitchers promoted to the MLB in 2025, so much so that I'm starting to wonder if pitchers are just developing much faster at this point.

Colton Gordon

I just included Gordon in my midweek post a few days ago, so forgive me for copy-pasting what I had already written. But look, this is his 3rd time on the blog, and there's not much else to say. If you want a solid location guy who is currently flying other the radar because he doesn't throw 97+, look no further. Gordon is going to guarantee a few things week in and week out:

An awesome K/BB.

A good WHIP and ERA.

A decent chance at a QS.

Just trust the Astros ability to develop pitchers and snag him.

I included Gordon on my most recent waiver wire post and he proceeded to have a nice outing: 5 IP, 1.80 ERA, 5 Ks, 0 BBs. It's actually strange how similar he is to Walter with the 27 degree arm angle, reliance on ride, extension, and movement, and the uncanny ability to just not walk batters. Where they differ, though, is Gordon doesn't induce groundballs, but rather weak flyouts. I'll include what I wrote about him previously.

To be honest, I'm not quite sure what I was doing when Colton Gordon was called up, and as both a baseball enthusiast and UCF alumni, I feel a bit of shame for being late to the party. Houston's #14 prospect has now made five starts and his underlying metrics are looking strong enough for him to cement a spot in the rotation. 

His expected ERA comes in at a healthy 3.13 in spite of a .260 xBA, and the main contributor to this is his stellar 99th percentile BB %. Simply put, this guy has absolutely elite-tier location - even Fangraphs has him at a 110 Location +. Although his 4-seam averages 91, his 83rd percentile extension bumps that perceived velocity into the 94 mph range. The 4-seam also has less vertical break vs the average, and some really solid horizontal break with 3.3 inches gloveside. Add on to this his 27 degree arm angle, exactly the same as Bryan Woo's (see below for visualization), and you have a pitcher that's throwing a 4-seam with tons of ride. Don't let the velocity deceive you - this is a very good fastball and should have pitch shape enthusiasts sweating. His secondary pitch, the sweeper, currently has a .239 xBA against, yet hitters are currently hitting .345 against it, which means there's more to unlock here for Gordon when the math works itself out.

Brandon Walter So I just watched this guy absolutely shove in a gem against the Twins, and I'm pretty sure he's officially locked a spot in that Astros rotation. If someone has to go to the pen, it's almost certainly going to be Gusto at this point. I actually think Walter is a bit better than Gordon, but they're both well worth owning. I'm really enjoying guys with sub 30 degree arm angles in 2025, and it seems like hitters probably aren't.

Fantasy Baseball: Revenge Of The Soft Tosser.

It seems like a year ago we were hyped on Ryan Gusto in that Astros rotation (though his most recent outing was his best), but now it's mid-June and the Astros have two fresh arms that are much more intriguing. One of those arms is Brandon Walter, who currently rocks a 1.64 ERA and 0.91 WHIP through two starts.

Walter has excellent extension and absolutely elite BB and GB rates, both clocking in around the 99th percentile. Much like Colton Gordon, who is listed below, Walter is a pitcher who relies entirely on horizontal movement on his primary fastball with his Woo-esque 26 degree arm angle. The cutter has tremendous ride and hitters struggle to barrel up, and even though they don't whiff often, he gets them to chase on a nice sweeper below the zone in 2 strike counts. Walter has three plus pitches: the cutter, sweeper, and changeup (which has a crazy .071 xBA right now), and they all tunnel well and move in extremely different ways. Walter is both a safe and deceptive pitcher - you don't have to worry about the longball with this guy, and he's a bet to pitch deep into games due to the groundball rate. His fangraph projections also reflect just how good he's looked through his first two starts, with all three grading well above the major league average. It's been confirmed Walter will remain the rotation, and if he continues to pitch this well, will most likely force Gusto to the bullpen.

This is going to look even better tomorrow. Prepare for a gorgeous statcast.

Hunter Dobbins So as you probably know, I'm a Dobbins stan. I've written about him too many times to count (well actually, maybe four times), and after his most recent outing, I'm feeling pretty validated on my Dobbins faith. It hasn't been easy, though, as I'm a Yankees fan...and well...Dobbins made some comments last week that had Yankees fans rightfully triggered. I was the weirdo on the Yankees sub actually telling the other fans that he was a pretty decent pitcher and to just watch him pitch, so just know I'm not insanely biased towards my own team! I received plenty of downvotes!

One reason I've continued to follow Dobbins is just to see how his pitch mix evolves. I've been absolutely adamant in the fact that I believe if he throws that splitter and sweeper more often, he's going to become really, really good. This guy has the kind of bag, like Schwelly, has enough upside to warrant watching. Check out what I wrote a month ago:

And long behold, in his most recent outing against the Yankees, he threw both more often than he ever has at 15.9% and 19.5%. You reading the blog, Red Sox pitching coaches?

The line against the Yankees?

6 IP

5Ks/1BB

.50 WHIP

Dobbins absolutely dominated a lineup that contains Aaron Judge (of whom he struck out twice). If he continues to master the sweeper and slider, and bumps it up from 16% to that 20% mark, I truly believe Dobbins can approach ace status. The only sad part of this whole situation is Fitts might not see the majors for a while, and I like him - I think that Dick has a lot of potential.

Kyle Harrison

Don't look now, but Harrison's velocity is up significantly in 2025, averaging 95.1 mph on the 4-seam, up from 92.5 in 2024. That alone makes Harrison extremely intruiging and worth of film study, and I look forward to watching him pitch tonight. At only age 23, Kyle Harrison still has a ton of room to grow and match the prospect hype he received upon being called up at an extremely young age. His fangraphs projections have him at an absurd 118 Location +, showing the increased velocity hasn't come with any sort of wildness, and that's exactly what we want to see. While his fastball has a beautiful run value of 5 and a .213 xBA, his other two pitches, the slurve and changeup, haven't found any success in 2025. And in his most recent outing, where he threw his 4-seam less and his offspeed and breaking more, Harrison struggled a bit with letting guys get on base. Harrison actually needs to lean into that 4-seam and its newfound velocity, and keep that usage rate around the 70% mark, minimum ( he threw it 55% of the time in his last outing). We'll see how he pitches tonight and draw our conclusions from there!

Tyler Freeman

Now that Addison Barger has gone mainstream, I've been searching for a new crush in the fantasy baseball hitting landscape. I only like my guys 5'6 or taller and under 10% owned.

Welp, I've found a strong candidate who's starting to give me those butterflies. And apparently the Rockies have too, because he's officially batting 2nd in the lineup after being in the 9-hole to begin the season. He's just been too fucking good to ignore, even for the inept Rockies organization.

Looking at his statcast, we see Freeman has some elite bat-t0-ball skills and some good vision at the plate: 99th percentile whiff

99th percentile K

55th percentile chase

65th percentile squared up

50th percentile sweet spot

55th percentile BB

And that's all good for a sweet, sweet .295 xBA and .354 xwOBA. Combine that with his respectable 73rd sprint speed and 5 SBs, and Tyler Freeman has the makings of an impactful fantasy add. Freeman just has enough power to where he'll probably end up with 10-15 HRs by seasons' end, but you're not going to be adding him for HRs. You'll be adding him for ratios, and believe it or not, counting stats:

That's a whole lotta' runs for a guy on the Rockies, and it's abundantly clear he's the sparkplug their lineup desperately needs at the top of the lineup. The best part of this whole thing? He currently rocks reverse splits:

.347 BA and .947 OPS against RHP

.208 BA and .481 OPS against LHP

Freeman is a tough matchup for righties and his progression from last year seems natural based on the statcast metrics - his bat speed is slightly up, his power indicators are moderately up, and his whiff and K rates remain as strong as they were in 2024. He's only 26, and it simply seems like he's entering his physical prime in the perfect location - Coors Field. In an offense starved for production, Freeman will have the greenlight to swipe bags whenever he reaches base, and that's pretty often. Add this guy!

Brandon Marsh I love Brandon Marsh, and frankly, he showed up on the blog way too often in 2024. So when he started the 2025 campaign as miserably as he has, well, I've begun to wonder why I ever loved this man in the first place. Was I seeing something that's not there? Was he not the RHP God Of Destruction I thought he was? Is he Yamcha, and not Beerus? And will he ever shave his beard in a desperate attempt to rid his soul of the bad mojo?

Unfortunately, he hasn't shaved the beard. Fortunately, though, he's begin to come on strong for the Phillies. His launch angle has much improved from the early goings of the season, with his sweet spot now up to the 35th percentile from what I remember being as low as the 5th percentile a month ago. So in my estimation, he's probably been hitting the ball at about an 80th percentile sweet spot rate for the last few weeks. That's great news for a guy that had an elite 97th percentile sweet spot rate across the entire 2024 campaign. It's clear that Marsh came into the season with a new approach at the plate, because he HAS managed to improve his 2024 whiff rate of the 33rd percentile to an awesome 60th percentile in 2025, and maybe a brand new Brandon Marsh is emerging at age 27, ready to be a fantasy stud in the 2nd half of the season. Brand-new Marsh?

If Marsh is able to find that sweet spot again, and continue to whiff and walk at his new 2025 rates, there's a shit ton of potential here for a guy that has an 85th percentile sprint speed (up from the 74th percentile in 2024) and had 19 SBs a year ago. Add the fact that he's in a Phillies lineup that's bound to get going, there could be a lot of counting stats here. Welcome back to the squad, Marsh.

Jorge Polanco

So Polanco still has much improved bat speed over his 2024 campaign, and I personally don't see any indication he's reverting back to that player. However, tons of Polanco owners clearly disagree, and he's been mass dropped over the last month. If this is actually just a slump, and I believe it is, ther'es really no reason not to add this guy. His xBA still clocks in at .301 and his squared-up % remains elite at the 92nd percentile - he's simply lost the launch angle a bit during this slump, but he's been pretty good over the past two weeks with a 9 game hitting streak, albeit without much power.

Lars Nootbar

Same deal as Polanco, and Ben Rice, in that people are giving up on him a bit too early. The metrics are still there to suggest he's slumping, and I really think people will regret giving up on him this early. I get it - it's really tough to keep guys slumping this hard while you see lesser players on waivers putting up stats, but keep in mind that we're not even halfway through the season, and there's a ton of baseball left to play. When the positive regression comes for Nootbar, will you be watching it play out for another manager's squad? How will you feel when you see it? Ask yourselves those questions before dropping.

Watching:

Dominic Canzone

I've been waiting on the Canzone breakout for two years, but the guy is just constantly getting hurt and never able to find a rhythmn. The potential to be one of the best RHP mashers in the league is there, and I compare him to Matt Wallner.

Brooks Lee

For at least one week, Brooks Lee has lived up to the prospect hype. At age 24, he requires consistent monitoring, for the breakout may occur at any moment....even now.

Heriberto Hernandez

This guy has displayed some stupid levels of power, and I want to wait another week before I really come to a determination. But if you want to read a bit more, check out what I wrote in my midweek piece.

This guy has come out of absolutely nowhere and become the Marlins' best hitter over the past two weeks. He's hitting the ball with authority and his .417 BA and 1.065 OPS reflect that. Standing 6'0, 195 lbs (I think he's bigger than this), Hernandez also posseses 83rd percentile sprint speed and is just a really solid athlete. His power seems effortless, and if you watch the HR below, you'll see him smack the shit out of a high and outside fastball deep to center. It's a HR that most MLB players aren't capable of launching and makes Heriberto an extremely intruiging add. Even looking at his AAA metrics, this power just isn't surprising - but what is surprising is the current xBA of .396, which is honestly unsustainable. Keep an eye on this guy whose launch angle, bat speed, and hard-hit rates are currently elite.

Alek Thomas

The average exit velocity is really beginning to creep up for Thomas, and that pairs nicely with a respectable 50% whiff rate. If he can find the sweet-spot, he'll be worth an add.

Realmuto

It's tough seeing a name like this on the waiver wire blog, but father time comes for us all. Still, he's had a really good week, and there's more here than most think. He still runs at a 79th percentile sprint speed, and his bat speed is only down from the 70th percentile in 2024 to 63rd in 2025. His body hasn't quite just yet, and if someone dropped him (he was dropped in my 14 team league), he could definitely be worth an add.