Waiver Wire Week 13 - All Around Me Are Familiar Faces

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It was a rough week for some of our pitchers, as Colton Gordon got squeezed on perfectly located low sweepers and Brandon Walter straight up got rocked (though he did manage to throw up a 6.00 K/BB).

We don't even need to mention Dobbins.

I'll be holding Gordon and Walter, as I still like what I've seen out of those two, but I'll be looking to tier up from Dobbins considering he's on a short leash with Kyle Harrison and Richard Fitts stewing at AAA and Houck returning from the IL soon. Speaking of Houck, he looked terrible in his rehab outing, so don't rush to add him. But you know which injured player you should stash soon? Cody Bradford, who may return by the second or third week of July.

Also, please, if Ben Rice has been dropped in your league, add him. Not only is he playing well right now, but he's about to have C eligiblity and may straight up take the primary job from Wells as his catching metrics actually look pretty good for someone who hasn't gotten many reps there!

Isaac Collins

If you've read a lot of Gerbilsports this year, you may remember (and hopefully don't) when I dropped Kyle Stowers just before his HR outburst. Why? Because I became infatuated with this guy named Isaac Collins, thinking he was on the verge of breaking out in a big way. Unfortunately, that didn't happen two months ago. But it may be happening now.

Collins has played some blistering baseball over the past week, slashing .429 with a 1.471 OPS, and tallying 8 RBIs on 2 HRs. Back when I first discovered him, I was a bit more keen on him than the Brewers, who failed to let him notch the consistent playing time I thought he deserved due to fantastic outfield defense and offensive upside. He was more of an injury replacement / platoon guy, but no more! Collins is now playing in more of an everyday role and he's beginning to find his rhythmn, and Garrett Mitchell seems to not have a job whenever he may finally be healthy. Do you want to know why I love Collins so much? Check out what I wrote of him back on May 4th!

This kid has impressed me to maybe an unwarranted degree, so much so that I dropped Stowers (who you should 100% add) for him. On the surface, nothing about Collins is too fancy - he's a 5'8 rookie drafted in the 9th round and is receiving his first serious look at the MLB level. But when I watch this kid, I see an extremely well-built, strong-based player with a very small strike zone and a very mechanically solid swing. He may be "short," but being a listed 188 lbs. (I'd reckon a bit higher now) of pure muscle at that height is actually pretty incredible. His bat speed is indicative of that strength, coming in around the 80th percentile, and that kind of bat speed traveling through a relatively small strike zone leads to some very good outcomes. He reminds me a lot of a young Altuve. When I peeked his 2024 AAA metrics on Prospectsavant, the MLB production and ability he's shown early on this season was not only validated, but actually began to make me believe there's another level for him to unlock. Collins had some of the best bat-t0-ball ability in the entirety of AAA last year, and as a switch hitter no less : 94th percentile Chase % 80th percentile BB% 80th percentile

Whiff% 82nd percentile SwStr%

72nd percentile Zone Contact%

93rd percentile Sprint Speed

.838 OPS vs LHP

.840 OPS vs RHP

And thanks to his bat speed, all of these contact numbers also came with some fairly impressive power metrics - a 79th percentile Max EV and 65th percentile Hard-Hit %. When I looked at his MLB Savant numbers, it seems everything important is translating to the MLB level pretty well, albeit with room for improvement. I love Kyle Stowers, but I wanted someone with more reliable bat-to-ball metrics - Stowers 5th percentile Whiff % is a risky proposition, especially when Misner's whiff rates were already starting to rear their ugly head. On top of that, Isaac Collins is a genuine SB threat with great speed, and plays on a Brewers team that's currently 3rd in SBs at 40, only trailing the Cubs and Red Sox. Not only has Collins' bat been solid to start the year, his defense has been extremely good with 60th percentile range and 90th percentile Arm Value, and he's compiled .4 WAR in only 48 PAs leading into today. I don't see a world where Collins doesn't continue to garner regular playing time for the Brewers with Garrett Mitchell both fumbling the bag and getting injured, and Blake Perkins being out with a serious injury. Stowers may have hit four HRs this week, and maybe I should have dropped someone else to grab Collins, but make no mistake - I believe in this man.

Dane Myers

It's really nice to see my hidden-gem blog crushes playing good baseball, and Dane Myers is certainly no exception. My jacked and fast friend continues to display tremendous athleticism that makes one wonder why it's taken him this long to break out in an organization that has struggled to compile meaningful talent. His power and contact metrics remain strong with an:

80th percentile avg. exit velocity,

75th percentile square-up %,

55th percentile hard-hit %, w

98th percentile sweet-spot %.

When Dane makes contact, the ball tends to travel, and he's become a doubles hitter with 8 across 143 ABs on top of 34 singles to form that sweet, sweet .322 BA. His solid 74th percentile sprint speed has allowed him to accumulate 8 stolen bases on the season, and he's become a gold-glove tier outfielder with 81st percentile range and 96th percentile arm strength. Dane should see near everyday play at this point not only because he's been very good, but because the Marlins will almost certainly trade him to a contender at the deadline. And boy....if Dane finds himself in the middle of a playoff lineup....

Tyler Freeman

I shit you not, Tyler Freeman has filled the Keaschall-sized hole in my heart and become my favorite addition of the year. Every time this guy plays, he does something to help my fantasy team win, and I just straight up turn on Rockies games to watch him play. Even as I type this, he already has a single and a SB in the first inning of the Rockies V Diamondbacks. This is his 3rd week on the blog, and I expect ownership to skyrocket over the next few days.

With 99th percentile whiff and K rates, Tyler Freeman doesn't understand the concept of not making contact with the baseball, and on top of that, somehow has an above-average chase rate and walks above league average. And although there may not be a ton of HR potential here, this guy tries to steal bags almost every day (8 on the year), and often succeeds. Beyond being a ratio god, Freeman continues to accumulate counting stats, and has been an elite run producer with 17 runs across only 95 ABs.

He's been an absolute pleasure to own, and is on the verge of having 2B eligibility on top of his OF and SS eligibility in Yahoo leagues. According to Freeman, the Guardians attempted to change his swing to generate more power and the results were obviously not good. Now in Colorado, Freeman has taken the Addison Barger approach and just the swings the way he wants to, and boy has it paid dividends. Expect some of these balls to get out of Coors in the summer heat as well, as his launch angle and average exit velocity will certainly get the job done.

Ryne Nelson

So the last time I mentioned Ryne Nelson, he may or may not have absolutely nuked the ERA of anyone reading this blog. It was bad, and I suffered along with you. I assume, then, that we all dropped him hastily out of rage. Well, maybe we shouldn't have done that, as he has had two solid outings since: 5 IP, 3K, 0 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 3.00 K/BB

5.2 IP, 4 K, 1.59 ERA, 0.53 WHIP, 2.00 K/BB

Makes sense, considering his fangraphs projections have him looking like a good pitcher with a 107 stuff+ and 105 pitching+. The problem with Nelson, is that less often than not, he can lose the zone and not locate any of his stuff which can lead to some blowups. But most of the time, he does alright with the location and logs quality innings. Nelson has a very nice perceived velocity on that fastball with 71st percentile velocity and 83rd percentile extension, and is one pitch away from being elite. If he can find a pitch that can get some whiffs, the sky is the limit for Ryne. Hopefully is cutter or curveball can continue developing and pass that 30% whiff threshold (currently 28 each).

Michael Soroka

Soroka continues to return to form as the season progresses, and though he currently rocks a 5.06 ERA, his 1.13 WHIP tells a more complete story along with his .xERA of 3.40. Soroka's slurve is one of the nastiest pitches in all of baseball (42% K rate), and his fastball continues to improve as does his location. I've held for over a month, and will continue to hold even if he finds trouble this afternoon when he takes on the Dodgers.

Jacob Lopez

Here comes yet another low arm angle guy that hitters can't figure out, and he might be the best yet. His 20 degree arm angle and ridiculous 14.1 inches of gloveside break has hitters struggling to make any kind of good contact on a fastball that clocks in at a meager 91 mph. Fear not, though, as the 93rd percentile extension paired with the insane ride and horizontal break makes this one of the most deceptively good pitch-shape, perceived velocity fastballs in all of baseball. His xBA against pitches are:

.178 against the 4 seam

.218 against the slider

.239 against the cutter

.170 against the changeup

To have such good xBAs, Lopez is currently whiffing guys at an 83rd percentile rate, on top of limiting any kind of hard contact when hitters manage to find the ball. Lopez, frankly, has the statcast of an ace.

Michael McGreevey

McGreevey has a 123 location+ and 115 pitching+; I can't stress just how good these projections are. They are straight up elite.

And so it's unfortunate that the Cardinals continue to jerk him around when he so clearly deserves a spot in the rotation. Across three starts, including a start against the Dodgers, McGreevey boasts a 2.70 ERA and 0.84 ERA. With his next start slated against the Cubs on Tuesday, McGreevey may very well cement a spot in the rotation with a solid performance - and a solid performance is likely when you're this good at pitching. I recommend taking a chance on him this Tuesday, as it may very well benefit you for the rest of the season.

This guy is very underrated, and is near the Logan Henderson tier with a 4-seam fastball that has a stellar .108 xBA against to go with a 35% whiff rate. In fact, his four most used pitches have all accumulated positive run value:

Brayan Bello

Bello has been maybe the hottest pitcher in the MLB, having logged four straight quality starts. So the question is, what's driving his success?

See that brown line that literally doesn't appear over the course of May, but suddenly appears over his last few starts? That's a cutter, which he's not only begun to throw, but is now throwing frequently - as much as 33.3% in a single start. And I assume this is the same cutter that they're getting Kyle Harrison to throw at AAA to improve on his 3 pitch mix. Now that Bello is throwing this cutter, his 95 MPH sinker is suddenly fooling hitters who are left completely off-balance by a cutter that somehow has less horizontal break than both his 4-seam AND sinker. Seriously, this is a weird pitch:

This cutter has immense vertical break, with literally more than his sinker, and has the same exact velocity as his changeup. I'd call this a second sinker if I could, but alas, it's a cutter. Coming in, hitters have to decide whether this pitch is the sinker or change, and is becoming a very nice tool in Bello's bag. Let's see if it can take Kyle Harrison into elite territory as well!

Mickey Moniak

It's time. The #1 overall pick is finally putting it together out in Coors, and has been red hot over the past two weeks. With Tyler Freeman and Jordan Beck both playing good baseball, the Rockies lineup is actually beginning to click, and each of the three are actually seeing pitches to hit because of it. Dare I say Tyler Freeman's insane OBP presence is opening up this offense?

Moniak's whiff rate is beginning to climb out of the bottom 10th percentile and his bat-speed continues to result in some nice power metrics that also continue to climb:

64th percentile barrel %

60th percentile hard-hit %

56th percentile squared-up %

While I recommend Beck and Freeman before Moniak if you're interested in a Rockies outfielder, might I interest you in all three in a deeper league? It would certainly make watching Rockies games fun.