Waiver Wire Week 18 - Start Of Something New
- John Gerbino
- Jul 27
- 12 min read
Follow me on Bluesky at GerbilSports
Welcome to yet another Waiver Wire Post - I'm your host, Johnny Gerbs!
This is a rather special week for the Gerbil Sports lore, as I've taken the plunge and started a Patreon! Now now...not to fret, as there will still be a free Sunday post for years to come! But if you decide to subscribe, you'll be getting your early edit of the Waiver Wire post on Saturday, posted directly on Patreon.
Scared your leaguemate is also a Gerbil reader and will also be bidding on say, Addison Barger or Kyle Stowers or Kurtz or Mis or Heliot, on an early-year, calm and quiet Sunday night? Well, by supporting the Gerbil Sports endeavor, which is expensive for a guy struggling to find work, you won't have to worry as much...unless they join too. I spend, I'm not shitting you, at least 8 hours per day on baseball shit. I'm not quite neurotypical.
Aside from an early waiver wire post, I plan on writing quite a bit of extra goodies for my Patreon - prospect analysis (which you'll also find on Prospectsavant), statcast inquries and theories, and just fun baseball things - just a lot more content. Come Fall and Winter, I'll be turning my attention toward fantasy football (with a focus on dynasty) and basketball, so if all goes well, it will be worth the cost! If you're interested, there's a link in the header of this site, as well as on my reddit page.
Oh, and I think we'll be starting a Gerbil Sports Dynasty league, maybe 14-16 teams. The Patreon and Discord chat should make it fun.
Daylen Lile
So... you may have noticed by now that I have a bit of a crush on Lile despite the production not quite showing up yet. But if you asked me "Hey, Johnny. Which underperforming rookie do you expect to break out sooner rather than later?", it would be without a doubt Lil' Daylen Lile.
Not even the .297 xBA withstanding, there's a ton of really good things going on here. His 95th sweet-spot percentile is oh-so-sweet as Lile hits the ball at solid launch angles 40% of the time he makes contact. This then plays into the squared-up % metric, which is a combination of consistent launch angle and hitting a velocity threshold on that same contact. Basically, Lile is creating the optimal physics outcome on 30% of contact, and this is exactly why he has that .297 xBA in the first place.
Not only is he making optimal contact, but he's showing godly plate discipline and contact rates. His elite 95th percentile whiff rate coupled with a 65th percentile chase rate has Lile swinging at hittable pitches, and we already know the contact is of high quality. This is some good shit, but let's look a little deeper into the zone contact metrics to find out what may be causing the discrepancy between the expected outcome vs. the actual outcome.
We're happy to see him swinging at 79% of pitches in the zone, vs the league average of 72%. But unfortunately, he's accumulated -7 run value on those very pitches - the most hittable pitches he sees. As it stands, Lile is making his best contact on balls outside the zone with positive run values across the board, while getting unlucky on contact over the heart of the plate. Fear not, though, as Lile has demonstrated some really nice zone contact rates at AAA, and the math sill balance itself out sooner rather than later.
Check out that nice 69th percentile zone contact % with that 76th percentile zone swing %! I truly believe that as Lile continues to adjust to MLB pitching, he'll begin to capitalize on pitches over the heart of the plate, alongside the bad pitches he already creates value on. Lile has the potential to become an elite-hitting, 5-tool star in this league. I'm a big fan of Daylen Lile, and have him ranked ahead of of Dylan Crews as a Nationals prospect.
Dylan Beavers
It may seem like beating a dead.....actually, I'm not going to say that. I think replacing 'Horse' with 'Beaver' is some bizarre imagery. And, in fact, the idea of even beating a dead horse is quite awful. Who came up with that phrase? Why did it catch on the way it has?
But man, we all know how much I love myself Beavers. I've been writing about this guy for three months now, before anyone other than Orioles fans even knew of his existence, and he's just now finally starting to catch on in the greater fantasy community. By this time next week, Beavers should be in the MLB and ready to carry your fantasy team to the promised land. I think it's fitting that I called Beavers the Spencer Jones you never knew about, because there's a good chance that with Judge's injury, Jones also finds himself in the MLB sooner rather than later.
Just a quick recap of the tool-set: Dylan Beavers is one of the premiere base-stealers in AAA, and at 6'5, possesses a sneaky good power tool that offers 25 HR potential at the MLB level. On top of the newly discovered power, Beavers has excellent discipline and vision at the plate, as evidenced by well above average zone swing, zone contact, and whiff rates. His chase rate may look low on the surface, but Beavers does a lot with pitches outside the zone and shouldn't be considered a knock against him. He's everything you want and more.
Spencer Jones
As a Yankees fan, this one is bittersweet. Judge just hit the IL with an elbow issue, and Spencer Jones may just find himself being promoted to the MLB sooner than expected. And although it can be considered "sooner than expected", make no mistake, Spencer Jones has earned the promotion and then some.
Although I jokingly compared Jones to Beavers due to their size and lankiness, they profile quite differently. Yes, they're both tremendous athletes for their size, but Jones has quite a bit more power coming at the cost at quite a bit less contact ability. A 67th percentile whiff rate is much better than a 13th percentile whiff rate, while a 97th percentile hard-hit rate is much better than a 62nd percentile hard hit rate.
Beavers may have 25 HR potential, but Spencer Jones has that 40+ HR potential, fuck your fantasy opponent any given week potentual. Jones is going to K much more than Beavers, which may cost you in points league, but the payoff will be well worth it in the long run. I expect Beavers to have a much easier time transitioning the MLB due to contact rates, and Spencer Jones may struggle at first much like Kurtz did, but should be worth waiting out if you have the patience. Jones is currently slashing .274 with a .984 OPS at AAA, showing the transition from AA to AAA was smooth as butter for the gargantuan masher. Who knows, maybe the transition period at the MLB level will be smoother than even I'm anticipating.
Isaac Collins
I may have seemed crazy months ago when I told you I was dropping Kyle Stowers for a rando named Isaac Collins....and well, I was. That was rather ridiculous of me, as Stowers has proven himself to be one of the most prolific hitters of the 2025 campaign. But at the very least, I can take some pride in knowing that Isaac Collins has become a viable MLB player breaking out at age 28, and for that, I give myself a pat on the back. Regardless of who I own on my redraft team, I did good work for the blog. A respectable .269 BA and .770 OPS come with a statcast that shows some incredible plate discipline. His 94th percentile chase % and 90th percentile BB%, coupled with a solid 52nd percentile whiff %, have Collins seeing base at a .370 clip. This OBP makes Collins a fantastic producer of runs on a nice Brewers squad, and his 11 stolen bases are respectable, though we'd love to see more running going forward. If collins can begin to capitalize on pitches over the heart of the plate, same as Lile, he can become a fantastic player. His 72nd percentile zone contact rate at AAA at least gives hope he can get to that point in the MLB. Lars Nootbaar
There's a very strong chance that Nootbar was dropped in your league. After an up-and-down first half, followed by a intercostal sprain that's held him to the IL for several weeks, Nootbar finds himself being one of the highest upside players available across all formats. His statcast is delightfully pleasant to look at - nearly every metric ranges from average to elite, yet somehow his xBA and xSLG betray those very same metrics.
I do think that Nootbaar has hardly been 100% healthy from the jump, and that the intercostal injury was just the wear and tear of playing through light injury finally catching up to him. If he manages to come back closer to 100% after several weeks of rest, we very may well see positive regression kicking in down the home stretch. Oblique and intercostal issues really do affect swing mechanics more than other injuries, and do take some serious time to recover from.
Yet again, looking at the zone swing take data, we see a player struggling to capitalize on pitches in the heart of the zone. Worse yet, Nootbaar also finds himself struggling in the shadow of the zone as well. The +15 run value in the chase zone and +7 run value in the wasteland make sense, as Nootbar finds himself walking at an 87th percentile clip and chasing at an 89th percentile rate.
So what's going on here, when the metrics show the quality of contact has been good? Simply put, he's been extremely unlucky, and as he only swings at 63% of pitches in over the heart and 40% of pitches in the chase zone, both well below average, he's simply not putting enough balls in play to allow positive regression to do its thing. A part of me wants to believe his conservative approach at the plate has something to do with lacking the confidence in his swing to catch up to some pitches thanks to injury, but we do see he had similar problems in 2024 when looking through the data.
The potential is still there, so keep an eye on Nootbaar as he returns from the IL, most likely next week.
Pavin Smith
With Naylor shipped outta' town, Pavin Smith is likely to receive the lions' share of starts at 1B upon returning from the IL. Although his 2025 statcast isn't nearly as beautiful as his 2024 profile, Pavin has still managed to slash .261 with an .817 OPS and 8 dingers. And I'm going to make the argument that he's not going to regress, but instead blossom as he comes back fully recovered from an oblique injury that I believe was sapping some of his bat speed in the early goings of the season. There's a ton of RBI potential here for Smith in the heart of the D-backs lineup.
Brett Baty
Brett "Bat-Speed" Baty, or as his padawans call him, Master Baty, has looked like an entirely new player post all-star break, riding a seven game hit streak that includes two dingers and six runs. Not too shabby for Baty, who we've been waiting on to break out since his first appearance on the blog a few months ago. With 91st percentile bat speed and a 6'3 frame, the power potential of Baty has always been recognized, but it may just becoming to fruition now that he's beginning to pull the ball more with a new batting stance that may be responsible for his hot hitting. Check this out:
His 77th and 73rd percentile barrel and hard-hit rates, coupled with a nice 67th percentile chase rate, show the potential for a strong second half is there.
Baty's issues, much like the others listen on the blog, come down to whether or not he can capitalize on good pitches. He currently possesses a -8 run value on pitches over the heart of the plate, but his change in attack angle post all-star break may very well remedy this issue. Keep an eye on Baty, or even add him hoping this is the beginning of something good.
Heriberto Hernandez (Oh shit, HR today!)
See this guy right here, who you may have never heard of? Keep an eye on him as the trade deadline approaches, as he has the potential to be one of the best waiver pickups down the stretch if the Marlins move Dane Myers, Jesus Sanchez, or even Kyle Stowers.
Heriberto has struggled to find consistent ABs thus far as the Marlins have a very crowded OF situation, but through 89 ABs, Hernandez is hitting .326 with an .861 OPS. The crazy thing is, his xSLG is actually higher than his already impressive .483 SLG, coming in at a beautiful .488. This awesome power profile aligns with what we saw from Heriberto at AAA:
What Hernandez has done, albeit in a limited sample size, is anything but a fluke. We have a tremendous athlete flying completely under the radar, and maybe the Marlins will take advantage of this situation by dealing Dane Myers and starting Heriberto full-time. And unlike other players on this list, Heriberto is NOT struggling with pitches over the heart of the plate:
That +5 run value on pitches over the heart in only 80 ABs is - and this can't be understated - is tremendous. This is a professional hitter that I believe is certain to break out in the very near future, and I give him the full Gerbil endorsement. Even on the Heliot Ramos test that helped discover Heliot in 2024, blast/swing / blast/contact, Hernandez competes with Agustin for best on the Marlins roster:
Not too shabby. Let's see what happens at the trade deadline. But for me, I'm adding him tonight.
Kyle Teel
Kyle Teel, the Chi Sox #2 prospect, has had an exemplary start to his MLB career. His solid .277 BA , .373 SLG and .763 OPS have the potential to expand further, as he currently rocks a .489 xSLG - a good deal higher than that aforementioned .373 SLG. His bat is prolific enough that the White Sox need to make sure he's playing at the DH spot whenever he's not catching, and that should be literally every game. With Benitendi currently getting reps at DH at the expense of Teel's development, expect a lot to change by the trade deadline, because I foresee the White Sox being keen to move Benitendi to a contender to open up ABs for Teel. Brice Matthews
The #1 prospect in the Astros organization has already flashed the power potential that propelled him to that top spot, smacking three dingers in only 29 ABs. And looking at the statcast, the quality of contact is fantastic....when he does make contact. We have a classic high power, high whiff profile here - all of the power metrics come in above-average, with a 99th percentile barrel rate being the highlight, but a 3rd percentile whiff rate putting quite the damper on things. Thinking Kyle Stowers when considering the potential here and he may be worth a pickup, even though the high K rate may drive managers crazy in points leagues. And although he hasn't swiped any bags yet ( a .250 OBP aint helping things), his 85th percentile sprint speed certainly shows the upside is there. I'd probably wait on this one a bit as he works it out at the MLB level, but the potential is hgh.
Carlos Correa
Positive regression is occurring rapidly for Correa after an extremely poor first half, and he now sits nicely above the .700 OPS mark after languishing in the .600s for the first half of the season. I don't think I really need to sell you on Correa. His bat speed is up to the 78th percentile, whereas it was at the 75th percentile when I wrote about him on June 1st. And with that improved bat speed, his exit velocities have climbed a good deal. Check it out and compare it to his current statcast.
Taylor Trammell, breaking out in 2025?!
Yep, it's finally here! After posting a blistering AAA statcast, Trammell is putting it all together at the MLB level, and we're here for it. Trammell is a rather forgotten prospect, after being ranked as high as 57th in 2020. His bat speed currently checks in at the 80th percentile, whereas it was as low as the 20th percentile in 2023. It's clear he's made some major adjustments to his swing and the payoff has been huge - a .275 BA and .848 OPS have Trammell suddenly vying for a permanent spot in a young Astros lineup.
Josh Jung
Jung has been solid since returning from his demotion to AAA, but what's changed? Well, let's take look at his pre-demotion stance vs his current stance:
His feet are now closer together, his stance is slightly more closed, he's moved up in the box, and most importantly, he's now pulling the ball rather than going oppo, as his ideal attack angle % has increased from 54.4 degrees vs 62.5 degrees. There's some huge adjustments here that seem to have fixed Jung - great job, AAA hitting coaches! . Shane Baz
Shane Baz may be owned in over 60% of leagues, but after the implosion in most recent outing, there's a chance he may have been dropped in your league. Just remember, he had a quality start in 5 of the 6 games preceding it. He's well worth the risk in deeper leaugues. Watching: Mike Burrows JT Ginn Jack Perkins Hayden Birdsong (may be brought back) Michael McGreevey (poor start today) Returning soon:
Kyle Bradish and Luke Keaschall Struggling but still worth adding if he's been dropped: Tyler Freeman
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