Waiver Wire Week 20 - The Home Stretch
- John Gerbino
- 1 day ago
- 13 min read
Follow me on Bluesky at GerbilSports
Damn, we're already at week 20. It's been a hell of a year for the waiver wire series, and we're still going strong, so thank you for the support. Let's make the most of these next few weeks before the playoffs arrive for all you folks who found success this year. For those of us who are eliminated - we gotta grab those waiver wire studs and play spoiler. We're not going down without a fight!
Jeremiah Jackson
So, we didn't get Dylan Beavers - an absolute tragedy for myself, the ultimate Beavers lover. But the Orioles secretly had another stellar outfielder waiting in the wings, and his name is Jeremiah Jackson. I think we're in early enough on this one, and the potential is clear as day. Beavers by all means deserved a promotion, but so did Jeremiah Jackson, and I truly can't wait to see what these two tremendous athletes can do together in that outfield.
Jackson slashed .377 with a .400 OBP at AAA, and with that awesome line, a ton of ridiculously nice metrics: 97th percentile xBA 80th + percentile across all Exit Velocity metrics 92nd percentile K
82nd percentile Hard-Hit
89th percentile Barrel
65th percentile Whiff
54th percentile Pull Air
Jackson has some major juice to tap into, alongside a bit of stolen base potential, with 11 swiped bags across all levels in 2025. When we get to the pitch type performance, I can't help but drool a bit at his numbers against the 4-seam fastball: .373 xBA
.747 xSLG
54% Hard-Hit 94 mph Average Exit Velo
This guy absolutely decimates the most common pitch in baseball, whilst also being awesome against every other pitch aside from the splitter - his kryptonite with a .185 xBA against. There's a ton of potential here, and I'd encourage you to keep a close eye on his progress. The Orioles have some good things cooking up, and it's easy to understand why they were so keen on selling their entire outfield at the deadline.
Daulton Varsho
It's been a long while since we've talked about Varsho - week 8 to be exact - and it's lovely to welcome him back after a hamstring injury kept him on the IL for months.
Varsho has been Stowers-esque this year, displaying some tremendous bat speed and power to go with some poor whiff and K rates, and that's fine, because he's fucking killing the ball. His .577 xSLG and 97th percentile barrel rates are superb, and in a lineup that includes guys like Vladdy, Barger, and Springer, there's just so much potential for RBI production here that it's hard to ignore.
Varsho is killing it in the Pull Air test, coming in at 27.5% with an overall Air % of 67.5%, and that's kind of fucking awesome. If he's not striking out, you can be sure he's making the most of his contact, giving himself every opportunity to send one into the seats. Seeing a 5'8 dude with this kind of bat speed and power is pretty interesting, Varsho is just built different.
Jakob Marsee
Yet another Marsee post. I get it, the cat is out of the bag on this seemingly invincible hitter who appears to be the literal reincarnation of Ichiro Suzuki and Tony Gwynn, had their souls accidentally been intertwined on the way back to this realm of consciousness. Unfortunately for us, Marsee has today off - I'm sure we were all pretty excited how he'd follow up a 3/6, 1 R, 1 RBI, 3 SB performance. Here's what I had to say about Marsee midweek:
"As Mr. Jesus Sanchez quickly found himself on his merry way to Houston, I decided to turn my focus to Heriberto Hernandez. And that's perfectly fine - he went 2/4 yesterday, and 2/3 with a dinger today. He's a nice, potential-laden player, and he's backing that up with production. He's a proper gem through and through, and we're happy to have him as a new Gerbil poster-boy.
But perfectly fine isn't good enough, and perhaps I should have been more focused on any outfielders being called up from AAA to help accommodate the loss of Jesus. I should have been ready for not one, but two gems to be uncovered from a farm sysem I've begun to appreciate over the years. One thing should be made clear - the Marlins' scouting department know how to do their job.
It's taken only one week for Marsee to solidify himself as a real fantasy contributor, showing off a very advanced bat-to-ball profile combined with above-average speed. Coming out of AAA, there's a few metrics we obviously adore:
71st percentile barrel
90th percentile BB
94th percentile chase
81st percentile whiff
72nd percentile Pull Air
76th percentile zone contact
Marsee is extremely selective with what he swings at, showing not only an MLB level eye, but perhaps something even greater than that of the average MLB player. He has a 76th percentile zone contact rate, yet he only has a 34th percentile zone swing % - this guy doesn't just swing at anything in the zone, but rather, pitches over the heart of the plate. His ability to distinguish between tough pitches in the shadow of the zone, pitches out of the zone (94th percentile chase rate), and over the heart can take him quite far. His knack for recognizing the most hittable pitches certainly explains his lovely pull air % at AAA, and his extremely nice sweet-spot % for the Marlins. Marsee is a guy that is going to make contact with good launch angles, take walks, and steal bases, and although I don't expect his MLB statcast to stay superstar-esque as it currently is with only a handful of ABs under his belt, I do expect him to remain a more than relevant athletic fantasy contributor with the upside to be a 20/25, .280, .800 hitter on a team that should be producing a lot of runs going forward. Agustin, Stowers, Marsee, Heriberto, Otto, Conine, and Edwards are the makings of a top 15 lineup going into 2026." - Midweek Post.
Brandon Marsh
The way Marsh has gone about his unusual 2025 campaign has kept him off fantasy rosters for the majority of the season, which is unfortunate, because the guy is better than he gets credit for. After an unfathomably slow start - this guy was pure dog water for the first few months and couldn't find a hit if his beard depended on it- he's now suddenly approaching a .777 OPS and .280 BA, with a really nice statcast to boot.
Marsh finds himself with a 76th percentile hard-hit rate, 69th percentile sweet spot, 75th percentile exit velocity, and 67th percentile whiff. And even amongst those well above-average standout metrics, his 60th percentile walk rate is extremely competent for a a potent lineup like the Phillies.
The main drawback to Marsh would be his strong side platoon role, and how he quite literally never gets to face LHP (because he shouldn't), but if you have the space to roster your own platoon, consider Marsh an option. This guy is a producer against RHP.
Ben Casparius
Now that Casparious finds himself back in the setup role, and out of that bullshit opener role we've all come to loathe, his value has skyrocketed for anyone in a holds league. With four holds dating back to July 25th, and more importantly, three since August 3rd, Casparious seems to be the #1 choice in that setup role, and for a team that wins as many games as the dodgers...this is invaluable. I won't lie - I honestly thought Klein would win this job when Kopeck went down, but Casparius also has the stuff to be extremely effective.
Casparius never issues walks, never allows hard contact, and has a well above average whiff rate. He's everything you want out of the pen, and hopefully he can find a way to put away guys and raise that K rate to be a bit more in line with the whiff rate.
Brendon Little
Little seems to be getting some holds opportunities, logging holds on August 2nd and 3rd, though faltering in his most recent opportunity. Still, Little currently has one of the nastiest curveballs in the league, currently boasting a run value of 7 and .132 xBA against, even as he throws it nearly 50% of the time.
Little has one of the most potent K/whiff rate combos in the league, but also one of the worst BB percentiles, and throwing little out there runs the risk of destroying your K/BB ratio. But with a .194 xBA and 96th percentile K rate....it's up to you to decide whether or not the risk is worth it.
Carmen Mlodzinski
I never anticipated Mlodzinski being the one to earn the setup role post-trade deadline, yet here we are, with Mlod logging two holds since August 3rd. But hey, who's complaining?
Mlod is basically available across all leagues in all formats, and at age 26, may be figuring it out, having given up zero runs across his last five appearances - spicy!
So what exactly has been working for the Mr. Mlod? Well, it seems as though his 4-seam has regained some of what made it such a good pitch for Mlod in 2024, where it finished with a run value of 3 by season's end. It's been less than consistent in 2025, currently sporting a less than desirable .x260 xBA, vs .189 in 2024. But over each of his last seven appearances, the xBA hasn't cross that .220 XBA threshold. So what's changed?
So I saw Mlod currently has a 29 degree arm angle on the season, but much like when we examine hitter attack angles to look for changes, we also need to look at pitchers!
Since July 17th, Mlodzinski has a 33 degree arm angle, which could explain how is 4-seam has fundamentally changed. This is a drastic change to make midseason, but it seems it's working out!
Heriberto Hernandez
Two dingers in his last three games - Heriberto has some fucking power. Seven longballs over 122 ABs, with a .903 OPS and .311 BA. This guy crushes righties, and at this point, you're probably sick of me mentioning him. I get it - his current platoon role makes him less than desirable. But more often than not, Heriberto will be playing as he crushes RHP, and whether or not you find him a worthy bench bat is entirely up to you.
Casey Schmitt
When it comes to the story of Casey Schmitt, we need to keep in mind that the lad is only 26 years old and still developing, and he may actually find himself fantasy relevant in the near future.
A year after posting a very respectable .760 OPS and .250 BA across 177 ABs, Schmitt is beginning to heat up and may very well surpass those 2024 numbers by season's end. His .271 xBA and .454 xSLG lap his actual numbers by a pretty significant margin, and his stretch of nice play may certainly entice desperate owners with the promise of breakout production down the stretch.
Schmitt boasts a beautiful 90th percentile sweet-spot %, which pairs nicely with alongside slightly above-average exit velocity and hard-hit rates. Add in a really sexy 28.4% Pull Air and you realize Schmitt is just a tiny bit of power away from being a legitimate HR threat, and overall solid hitter in this league. I don't think anyone really expects much from Schmitt - there's not an exciting bone in this guy's body. You may even be asking, "who is Casey Schmitt?"
But even that doesn't tell the entire story....check out his Pull Air since July 17th:
Schmitt is definitely a guy you'll want to keep your eye on as he enters his prime, and could be a sneaky good pickup in dynasty leagues as a buy-low candidate, as well as a solid sleeper choice in 2026 redraft.
Brooks Baldwin
Much like Casey Schmitt, Baldwin has been extremely competent as of late, with 2 dingers in his last two games, and his Pull Air rate since mid July tells a nice story:
That 30.8% Pull Air (and 33% if you refine it further to July 27th) is immense, and from April 1st to mid July, he only found himself at a decent 19% mark. This a drastic improvement, and something you hope to see stick for a 24 year old blue chip prospect that may have been promoted a bit too early.
When I went to compare his batting stance from the earlier parts of the campaign as opposed to the stance since mid July, I've discovered he's changed his stance from 2 degrees open to 2 degrees closed with significantly more distance between his feet, from 27.4 inches to 36.4. With adjustments like these made, one has to wonder whether or not he's finally put it together. At the very least, his new stance has allowed him to snag two homers against fastballs over the past month - 2 more than he had all season previously.
Jacob Lopez
Go figure I drop Lopez right before the absolute gem he put up yesterday:
7.2 IP
10 Ks
.39 WHIP
INF K/BB
Damn, that stings. Lopez has been somewhat volatile over the past month, walking a ton of batters alongside the high K rate, but there's no denying the statcast tells a story of ace potential when he's in command of his wonky breaking pitches. If you want the scoop on Lopez and what I think of his arm angle, mechanics, etc, feel free to search the GerbilSports site - I've written about this guy quite a few times.
But TLDR - really nice side-throwing arm slot, lots of ride and horizontal movement, extremely deceptive, perceived velocity plays up with 95th percentile extension.
JT Ginn
With Lopez, Perkins, and Ginn, there's a lot of good fun to be had with this A's rotation. They all have some rather splendid metric, good stuff, and xDAWG. Ginn definitely showcased the potential in his most recent outing, even if it wasn't quite as electric as the Lopez affair:
5.0 IP
9 K
5.40 ERA
1.00 WHIP
4.50 K/BB
A solid, albeit flawed, start for Ginn, and a welcome bounce-back from his previous outing!
You may remember, in one of my more recent posts that included Ginn, I said he'll find the most success when he decides to bump up that changeup usage:
Well, it looks like Ginn reads the blog, because he logged a season-high 24% usage rate on the changeup, and the results speak for themselves.
Want to see those 9 Ks? Check out this video, generously uploaded by Christopher Field on youtube:
Bryce Teodosio
I actually made a post on reddit about this dude upon promotion, just because I knew absolutely nobody else would talk about him. Check it out if you want a scouting report.
Now, don't get me wrong - there's nothing surprising about this statcast. I fully expected mostly icy blue metrics with a few good things going on, but Teoosio's speed and approach defies all of the odds, and that shows with his current .357 BA vs a .236 xBA. I think my comparison to Chandler Simpson was apt - three stolen bases in hi first six games is mightily impressive. If you're desperate for stolen baes, you could certainly do worse than Teodosio. He has a knack for shortening up his swing, and he may even be aiming the ball in a way that statcast is failing to recognize.
Drew Millas
Oh la la, someone we've yet to discuss at Gerbil Sports! Back in 2023, Millas made the most of his first MLB opportunity by slashing .286 with a .839 OPS across his first 28 ABS, but faltered with a .246 BA and .622 OPS across only 57 ABs in 2024.
Fast forward to 2025 and we see Drew hitting a blistering hot .364 with an .855 OPS, and this success is currently supported by some of his sticker metrics coming out of AAA. Down at AAA, Millas was cooking real nice in terms of metrics, but his actual production fell well short of his .278 xBA. His bat-to-ball metrics all come in elite and although he didn't have a ton of power, his Max EV came in at a nice 77th percentile, so there's some pop when he gets the right swing on the ball.
The whiff and chase rates have carried over nicely to the MLB level, and one should expect the sweet-spot and/or squared-up percentiles climb over a larger sample size. Millas also has a real nice Pull Air% of 30.8%, and although that should come down to earth at some point, he was pretty decent at AAA with a 53rd percentile Pull Air. All in all, Millas may be experiencing a breakout at age 27, depending on how much playing time he sees down the stretch.
Jack Perkins
Finally, a quality start for our boy! It looked rough as hell in the early going of his start, so much so that the notoriously patient Yahoo fantasy players starting lighting him up on his comments. Some examples: "get ready to learn Japanese bud, we're shipping you off to the Chiba Lotte Mariners." - Sean "This guy is buns jfc" - Ryan
Surprisingly, no cocaine bear wisdom, but you get the gist. So how did Perkins fare by the end? 6.0 IP
5 K
4.50 ERA
0.67 WHIP (sexy)
5.00 K/BB
We all knew the potential of Perkins going in to this start, and perhaps the most impressive part is the way he overcame early inning adversity - something you love to see from a guy who was pitching out of the bullpen only a week ago. His metrics remain dominant as he continues to both make guys whiff, limit hard contact, and both induce groundballs and K guys at above-average rates. Going into 2026, Jack Perkins is one of the #1 sleepers at SP. Btw Sean, it's the Lotte Marines, not Mariners. And show some respect for the NPB, fool!
The Big Sabrowski (from Midweek, edited)
Sabrowski has been low-key excellent for the Guardians, compiling a micro - 1.15 ERA and 1.02 WHIP through 13.2 innings pitched. And guess what? With Clase out of the league, Sabrowski has officially moved into the setup role, with three holds in his last three appearances, all clean as fuck! Sabrowski may not throw hard, only averaging 94 mph on the 4-seam, but his 107 Stuff+ grade speaks for itself. And check out his three pitches:
He's currentl;y throwing that 4-seam 67.9% of the time, which frankly, is absurd. What's more absurd is it has a .063 xBA and 42% whiff rate. It's compiled a run value (cumalitive stat) of 5 across only 13.2 innings pitched....what the fuck is this pitch? It certainly has good movement, less on the vertical end and more on the horizontal end, and a really nice 97% active spin rate...but is that all there is to it? I'm watching the film, and I just see a nice, flat fastball that has a bit of rising action. I suggest adding this guy for the saves, and watching him pitch, if you're into seeing an un-hittable 94 mph fastball that he throws nearly 70% of the time. Sabrowski may play himself into a possible closer role in 2028 if he continues to dominate in this fashion.
Watching/Still Add
Hernaiz Tyler Stephenson
Warming Freeman Kayfus
Burrows
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