Waiver Wire Week 7: You Own Yoán?

Follow me on bluesky at Gerbilsports. I'll be posting a publishing and sharing on bluesky a day before reddit more often than not. We have lots of good pitching on this week's waiver wire, which doesn't include Ryan Weathers who returns on Wednesday. I love Weathers, and he should already be owned in your league!

Edit: Addison Barger has been mentioned several times, and I full endorse that pickup post-publishing! His metrics are phenomenal and are in line with his prospect pedigree. Chris Paddack (A+) After a disastrous start to the season that saw Paddack yield 12 runs over his first two starts, he's really begun to settle into a groove that looks eerily reminiscent of 2023 Paddack, and 2023 Paddack was filthy (albeit flawed). Don't be fooled by the icy blue statcast that still carries the scars of season's dawn, this is a brand new player. If by chance you were able to catch Paddack's most recent outing, you probably don't even need me to tell you just how sharp he looked. Paddack threw 7.1 innings of 1 run baseball, and even into the 7th inning, was still hitting 97 mph on the radar gun. Not only was the velocity up, but it was up for the entirety of the game. And those fastballs weren't just high heat - Paddack was straight dotting the corners, and that's where you see his ridiculous 113 location + come into play. With the fastball speeding up batters at a 60% usage rate, the offspeed stuff was perfectly primed to induce whiffs and wipe out batters, and that's precisely what happened. I caught the final three inings of this start, and it felt like I was watching Skubal fill up the zone without a care in the world. Paddack's dealt with injury after injury since flashing high velocity stuff back in 2023, but he may finally be healthy and ready to contribute. As long as the velocity stays up, Paddack could be an unexpected ace for teams with a struggling rotation. If the velocity disappears again, welp, on to the next one.

113 location+ and 109 pitching+ are exceptional. The stuff is beginning to catch up.

Paddack's fastball was so good, he decided to throw it nearly 60% of the time in his most recent outing.

Shane Smith (A+)

When I tell you this guy is an ace in the making, I mean it. I've owned Smith two times this season, for a combined total of three weeks, and I'm angry at myself for even dropping him once. I caught his full start this week (and even Blueskyed a few notes on it) because he just looked so ridiculously impressive. I was watching both the Ragans start and the Shane Smith start simultaneously, and it was Shane Smith that looked like the ace of the two. Smith is evolving as a pitcher, with his velocity conintuing to tick up as the season progresses, and it couldn't be happening at a better time. Smith is known for his devastating, wiffleball-esque changeup, and hitters were beginning to sit on it in two-strike counts because they knew it's Smith's best two-strike pitch with a 35% whiff rate and 22% putaway rate. So what has Smith begun to do? Throw high heat at the top of the zone in two strike counts and demolish anyone who dares sit on the changeup. Check out the video of the Ks I linked below, which shows 4 of his 7 Ks came on the fastball. Smith's profile is beginning to look elite. With well-above average extension and velocity, the 4-seam fastball is beginning to near a perceived velocity of 100 mph. Both his whiff and groundball rates are hovering around the 7oth percentile, showing he has several ways of getting outs, and the fact that he only has a 10th percentile chase % while being able to do this kind of damage speaks volumes. Guys that can fill the zone and dominate are very, very rare.

https://www.mlb.com/whitesox/video/shane-smith-s-seven-strikeouts?q=shane%20smith&cp=CMS_FIRST&qt=FREETEXT&p=0

Chad Patrick (B-) I've been on the fence about including Chad Patrick, especially after today's start, but he's just too decent to not give any credit. With Patrick, you're not going to find the same kind of upside you get with Paddack or Smith. You're not going to see 97 mph on the black wiping out guys. But what you will see is a pitcher with a deceptively good, reliable cutter that will consistently get him deep into games with a decent ratios that should help teams more often than not. In fact, Patrick currently has a better primary cutter than Corbin Burnes! Patrick's cutter has a tremendous amount of vertical drop coming in at 23.6 inches. Corbin Burnes, who for years has been known as the best primary cutter guy, is currently getting only 18.8 inches of vertical drop on the cutter, signficantly less than Patrick. And we all know horizontal movement is also essential for a cutter - Patrick currently gets 3 inches gloveside, while Burnes gets 2.7. And while Patrick only throws 87 mph on the cutter, the movement he gets on it makes it better than Burnes' current 94 mph offering, which is really just caught in a bad spot in terms of velocity, being down signifcantly from his 2024 velocity. Patrick's other two offerings, the sinker and 4-seam, have nearly identical velocities and tunnel extremely well coming out of the release point, and they're quite deceptive coming at hitters. Chad Patrick has an oddly flat sinker coming in at 4 inches less than the comparable sinker, and only 5 inches more than his 4-seam, making it exteemely difficult for hitters to differantiate between the two offerings. His three fastball arsenal is very odd, and very flavorful in 2025, and I really enjoy the uniqueness and effectiveness of the odd pitch mix.

Above-average across the board.

Stephen Kolek (B)

Talk about impressive. Kolek currently has a 0.00 ERA through 14.1 innings and is doing it simply by allowing no barrels, and relying on the infield defense to do its thing, and they're definitely doing their thing. With a 99th percentile barrel % and 94th GB %, nearly everything that opposing batters put into play winds up being a groundball. Even crazier is that his hard-hit % and average exit velocity come in at the 20th and 3rd percentiles - people are smacking the ball, but seemingly right at infielders. And even though Kolek is nowhere near good at inducing whiffs, he still has an acceptable 47th percentile K rate thanks to one weird pitch - a sweeper he's only thrown 6 times, and has a stupid 100% K rate. The idea of a pitch you only throw 3% of the time for a guaranteed strikeout is old-school and actually makes me chuckle a bit, it's silly. Kolek is an add that certainly has some upside, but please be aware that because of the hard-hit and average exit velocity issues, his 4-seam and sinker currently have a .270 and .276 xBA against. Kolek isn't invincible, and he'll certainly have those starts where its death by a thousand paper cuts, it just hasn't happened yet.

Yoán Moncada (B) After years of injuries and missed time, Moncada is finally looking healthy. His sprint speed is up for the first time since a downward trend that began in 2021, and his bat speed is up signifcantly from his brief 2024 campaign. These two things tell me that Moncada is finally feeling pretty good, and it's really showing in his hitting. Moncada currently sports an .862 OPS across 48 PAs, is barreling the ball at a solid 65th percentile rate, and most impressively of all, sits around 90th percentile in both Chase % and BB %. Moncada is only swinging at strikes, and although he whiffs quite a bit and his expected numbers are less than desirable, he should continue to arrive at enough good outcomes to continue racking up XBHs as long as he continues to swing at strikes. We all know Moncada has some major power potential, and at only age 29 (yeah, he's not as old as you think), he most certainly shouldn't be counted as down and out. If this is his spring training, who knows what he'll look like when he's all warmed up.

Zach Dezenzo (S)

If you're looking at Houston's outfielders, you may see what Jake Meyers has done and conclude he's the guy to own. I think you'd be wrong. Dezenzo, the Astros' #5 prospect, currently rocks a sexy red statcast that shows some really good barrel, chase, and sweet-spot percentages on top of extremely good bat speed. His 76th sprint speed also gives him SB upside, as he stole a respectable 31 bases across all levels in 2024. Another aspect of Dezenzo that should make him highly desirable is that he rocks reverse splits. His 2024 AAA splits saw him post a .311 BA and .893 OPS against RHP vs a .224 BA and .655 OPS against LHP. There's a ton to love with the 6'5, toolsy outfielder, and I recommend you snag him above any other OF on the waiver wire.

Still worth an add:

Urias

McMahon

Schneeman Watching:

Brandon Marsh - Looks fresh coming off the IL, just what he needed after his miserable start to the season.

Ben Brown

Cade Horton

Drake Baldwin - Tons of upside, needs more reps.