Young Blood On The Way
- John Gerbino
- Jun 3
- 6 min read
Updated: Jun 3
This isn't quite the Brick By Brick series that looks at dynasty stashes (though because of it's AAA focus, has been quite similar to start), but more so a look at prospects on the verge of their MLB debuts that can hopefully make a redraft impact, as well as prospects that were just recently called up. I won't be mentioning Caglione, Mauricio, or Young, as they're pretty mainstream prospects receiving enough attention as it is. Though I will say I'm not a huge fan of Mauricio's AAA chase rates. I'll write more of these over the coming days, probably! Dylan Beavers Beavers is a favorite sleeper prospect of mine, and really, even more than that - a favorite prospect of mine, period. If you've been keeping up with the Brick By Brick series, you'll remember he was the most enthusiastic highlight of my very first post - my Jordan Beck of 2025, if you will. I adore everything this kid has done at AAA in 2025: .296 BA (Nice)
.801 OPS (Respectable)
16 SBs (Woah)
.393 OBP (Wow)
And the wild part? He's missed two weeks with a shoulder injury and is just now returning to the Tides lineup today - yet he still has 16 stolen bases. At the time of injury, Beavers was #5 in swiped bags across all of AAA. This kind of high contact, high BB, high SB profile is the type that often plays extremely well at the MLB level right from the get. And in fact, there's a rather apt comparison for Beavers already in 2025: Luke Keaschall. While Beavers is extemely selective with what he swings at, even in the zone, it all pays off with a really crispy 68th percentile Z-contact %. Add to that the beautiful 78th percentile chase rate and you have a recipe for success: high quality contact and walks-galore, to the tune of an 81st percentile BB%. Beyond the quality plate discipline and bat-to-ball skills, Beavers has some very real power potential in that lanky, lean 6'5 frame of his. An excellent 78th percentile EV90 and respectable 50th percentile EV50 pair beautifully with a 60th percentile Barrel % that will, undoubtedly, see Beavers going yard a bit more than people expect in the sweltering days of Summer.
Beavers' pitch type performance is more than ready for the MLB level. He absolutely punishes 4-seam fastballs, sinkers, and cutters for .511, .421, and .543 xSLGs. The Dead Red Beaver also handles sliders at a respectable .396 xSLG. With Beavers finding run value on the most prevalent pitch types, we can expect Beavers to get on base at a really nice clip in an offense starved for production, and because of that, we should expect Beavers to have the perpetual greenlight, A La Keaschall. The only pitch Beavers really struggles with in a bad way is the splitter, but really, who doesn't? It's both an uncommon pitch, and usually thrown by the better pitchers in the league, so we won't knock Beavers too hard for it.
Beavers remains my favorite redraft prospect even amongst the lack of buzz and hype surrounding him. If I have to be the only one in his corner, so be it - call me the Beaver Bebeaver.
Jacob Melton
I know, I know - I just mentioned Melton the day before he received his promotion, but that's precisely why he should be mentioned once more. Melton is the current Prospectsavant aggregate score leader and he kind of already showed why in his very first MLB game:
Melton scorches a 102 MPH grounder right at the 2B, making it hard to handle, and somehow beats out the throw with what seems like Elly-esque speed. This might be a single, but it's as impressive as a single can be. Melton is hard to handle, baby!
It's immediately apparent why Melton is the current leaderboard champion over at prospectsavant - just look at all of that blistering red from top to bottom. I don't need to really mention all of the 90th-100th percentile benchmarks for all of the most important power metrics, right? I'd honestly rather appreciate how strong his discipline and bat-to-ball metrics are to go with that power - all except zone-swing % come in above the 60th percentile. That's a superstar metric profile.
Melton, much like Beavers, can handle every fastball thrown at him, but even beyond Beavers, he absolutely demolishes changeups, cutters, sliders, and curveballs. It's actually kind of ridiculous that Melton has one weakness, and that's the Sweeper. My dude is the Superman of Pitch Type Performance.
Alan Roden
Roden has struggled mightily across 73 MLB ABs in 2o25, but he really shouldn't be counted as down and out. There's no doubt in my mind that Roden's struggles are entirely mental, based on the way he's dominated AAA pitching, and I think the best is yet to come.
We see below that, at AAA, Roden showcased dominant bat-to-ball skills and vision paired with some very respectable exit velocity and barrel percentiles, yet at the MLB level, all of that's disappeared. Whereas he had a 71st chase perentile at AAA, he now has 30th chase percentile. Because of that, his 93rd percentile whiff rate has shrunk to a 60th percentile whiff rate. If he continues to chase pitches in a way that he never did at AAA, he'll continue to both whiff and more importantly, make poor contact - which entirely explains the lack of any exit velocity at the MLB level. As long as the struggling and now injured Santander remains sidelined, Roden will continue to receive reps. And as long as he continues to receive reps, the probability of an adjustment to MLB pitching continues to increase. I won't claim you should go out and snag Roden - you shouldn't - but what you should do is monitor the situation. He's just not this bad.
Another way to support this as being entirely a mental hurdle is to look at the Pitch Type Performance. Roden has been one of the best hitters of 4-seam fastballs at the AAA level to the tune of a fucking absurd .800 xSLG. At the MLB level? A .150 xBA .193 xSLG. This kind of discrepancy seems anomolous for the Jays #5 prospect, and I'm inclined to believe there's better things to come for Roden. It's just hard to believe someone with such a good eye at the plate simply can't see MLB pitching to the point of being a .178 hitter. And with Barger emerging, there could be plenty of production in a lineup that features Vladdy, Bichette, and the aforementioned Barger.
Hao-Yu Lee
By my estimate, Lee's time fast approaches as Jace Jung continues to prove he still can't hit MLB pitching, Vierling finds himself again on the IL, and Mckinstry remains on the wrong side of 30. He's received reps at 3B in AAA, despite being a primary 2B, and although he's not quite yet a good defensive 3B, the hitting prowess can't be ignored for a team that has World Series aspirations. After a slow April where the production didn't quite match the metrics, he's come on very strong in May where he's only posted 6 hitless games and 8 multihit efforts. The metrics are solid from top to bottom, and are especially impressive for someone who's only 22. I believe McKinstry is currently overachieving and regression will soon come to snatch him, which could leave the door open for Lee to at least be tried at the hot corner.
Lee handles most pitches well enough, though we do wish he performed better against the 4-seam and slider, which are the two pitches that see the most usage across baseball. His absolute dominance of the sinker and changeup, should help alleviate this shortcoming a bit, though,
Daylen Lile I want to mention Daylen Lile once again, because I truly believe this kid is very close to making some serious contributions. His whiff rate remains tremendous alongside his exit velocity, squared-up %, and hard-hit %. So think about it like this - Lile is extremely good at putting the bat to ball, and the ball consistently comes off the bat at an elite velocity. Pair that with 89th percentile sprint speed and you have a recipe for success in the very near future. His .250 xBA dwarfs his .214 xBA, and shows that the balls he's hitting on the ground happen to be hit right at fielders instead of finding gaps. If those balls start to find the gaps, AND he starts to lift the ball better as he adjusts to MLB pitching, we could be looking at a premiere 5-tool talent. His 64th percentile barrel rate at AAA suggests the launch angle will come eventually.
Lile is currently putting up a paltry .182 xBA and .202 xSLG against 4-seam fastballs at the MLB level, yet below we see he absolutely decimated 4-seam fastballs with an awesome .612 xSLG. We shouldn't expect his greatest strength at AAA to remain his greatest weakness in the MLB, and even in spite of this, has managed to put up that .250 xBA.
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